RZW EXEC: DORIAN 2PM UPDATE… RZW Exec partners, good Thursday afternoon! I am encouraged by model data flowing in this afternoon in that there has been a consistent trend all day pointing to Hurricane Dorian remaining well to the east of our local area. We’re not completely out of the potential for danger just yet, but the data suggests we are beginning to get there. The latest run of the ECMWF/Euro model paints a bleak picture for basically all of the Florida Peninsula from Miami northward to Gainesville. The American-based GFS model has trended farther south, followed by a similar sharp, right, northerly turn like the Euro. While this is bad news for our friends in the Florida Peninsula, it’s GOOD news for Alabama and northwest Florida! Nearly all major weather models keep the core of Dorian well to the east of our local area as of 2PM today. Model data can and will change, but the trend for our area over the last 12-18 hours has been in the right direction. Below are some of the paragraphs I’ll debut publicly around 4:30PM. My next live video update will happen at 8PM tonight. Hope you’ll join us for that! As always, let me know if you have any specific questions, concerns, or decision support needs. Below is an image capture of the ECMWF/Euro model valid at 7AM CDT on Friday.
DORIAN LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN; COULD BE CAT. 4 OR 5 EARLY NEXT WEEK… The National Hurricane Center has revised the intensity forecast of Hurricane even higher today, suggesting that the system may be a dangerous category 4 hurricane at the time of a potential landfall along the Florida Peninsula early next week. Dorian continues to organize in a way that is supportive of potentially extreme impacts across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Also of note, the official forecast has slowed somewhat, indicating Dorian may significant slow its forward speed as it approaches Florida. This could allow for more intensification prior to landfall. We are certainly not “out of the woods” just yet in south Alabama or northwest Florida, but the model data over the last 6-12 hours has been encouraging. The latest run of the reliable ECMWF/Euro model is in, essentially showing Dorian significantly affecting the Florida Peninsula before racing northward. Most models show a sharp, right, northerly turn before, at, or shortly after landfall in the Florida Peninsula. If you missed the text discussion this morning, I’ve modified the paragraphs below slightly to add the latest updates.
THURSDAY EARLY EVENING ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL LOCAL (SOUTH AL & NW FL) IMPACTS FROM DORIAN… The trends early this evening are encouraging for Alabama and northwest Florida, with most weather models continuing to keep Dorian well to the east of our local area. Unfortunately, the data is not conclusive enough to be able to give anything close to an “all clear” just yet. IF model trends continue to show a sharp, right, northerly turn when or shortly after Dorian reaches Florida, we can begin to rule out local impacts from the system. We are NOT there yet! It is critical that we all remain diligent and closely monitor the progress of this hurricane as it continues to strengthen and move northwest. Impacts in the Florida Peninsula have the potential to be extensive. Beyond that, it’s impossible to know if or when other areas will have major impacts. We will get another run of the ECMWF/Euro model overnight with more runs of the GFS intermittently in the coming hours.
EXTREME HURRICANE IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN EAST FLORIDA… The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center says that Dorian will likely approach the Atlantic/eastern coast of Florida as a very dangerous category 4, major hurricane on Sunday into Monday. Interests in and near West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Palm Bay, Melbourne, Cocoa Beach, Titusville, Merritt Island, Orlando, New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, Palm Coast, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, Fernandina Beach, Brunswick (GA), and Savannah (GA) should CLOSELY monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane setup. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, and the intensity forecast of Dorian may have to be adjusted higher in future forecasts! Don’t get so caught up in the category number (whether it’s a 3, 4, or 5) that you forget that potentially EXTREME impacts could happen in some of these areas!