SEVERE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY… RZW Exec members, good evening! Our first significant severe weather risk of the secondary severe weather season will happen tomorrow (Thursday, November 1). Damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main concerns. We expect a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms to move from west to east across our local area during the morning/early afternoon hours of Thursday. Let’s look at a few graphics and talk through these…
SEVERE RISK TO THE WEST TODAY
There is an enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) severe weather risk in place for much of southwest Mississippi, Louisiana, and east Texas this afternoon, this evening, and tonight. A few tornadoes, perhaps a few strong ones, could happen in those areas. This is the same system responsible for our severe weather risk on Thursday. It is setting up now over Texas and Louisiana.
LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY
The latest update (posted at 12:23PM) from the Storm Prediction Center shows all of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida included in a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid in the daytime hours of Thursday. Communities along and south of a line from Butler to Camden to Union Springs to Eufaula are included in this risk zone. Again, all local areas are included in this standard, slight risk. This means that isolated instances of downed trees and other damage will be possible. Straight line wind gusts are the main concern on Thursday as the squall line moves by, with isolated, embedded, brief tornadoes also being a concern. There is some chance that we could have a few supercell thunderstorms out ahead of the main line of storms that may produce large hail and tornadoes as well. ALL modes of severe weather will be possible Thursday.
PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS
Most spots across our local area will pick up 1.5″ to 2.5″ of rain. The greatest chance of a location getting more than 2 inches of rainfall will happen in west Alabama west of the Alabama River in Clarke, Mobile, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties.
DAMAGING WIND RISK TIMES
The damaging straight line wind gusts will be the biggest concern as the QLCS/squall line moves through our region on Thursday. This line of storms will most likely move through between 9AM and 3PM. That is when we have the elevated risk of damaging wind gusts.
TORNADO RISK TIMES
If we have discrete supercell thunderstorms form out ahead of the main line of thunderstorms on Thursday, we will need to not only increase the risk of tornadoes, but also bump back the timing a little bit as the cells will form in advance of the main line of storms passing through. Unfortunately, there’s no way to know just yet whether supercell thunderstorms will form out ahead of this line. Regardless, we’ll be in studio starting at 5AM on Thursday monitoring trends and bringing you the very latest in our public-facing products.
FINAL RZW EXEC UPDATE… This is the final RZW Exec update in advance of this severe weather potential as my focus will now shift to preparing for our live video updates tonight and on Thursday. Please continue to monitor the front page of the RedZone Weather app for the very latest. Per our usual policy, if we have any tornado warnings for any part of our 12 county coverage area, we will be streaming live video coverage across our platforms. Let me know if you have any specific questions or concerns. Have a great evening!
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