8:18PM February 28, 2019

RAIN/STORMS MOVING EAST… Showers and thunderstorms continue pushing eastward across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The heaviest rain at the moment is happening along the AL59 corridor between Foley and Gulf Shores. More heavy storms are in progress near Jackson.

Don’t be surprised to hear some thunder overnight! Severe weather is not expected.

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7:12PM February 28, 2019

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1:11PM February 28, 2019

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7:02AM February 28, 2019

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6:53AM February 28, 2019

STORMS NEAR MUNSON & BAKER… “Loud and proud” thunderstorms continue to slide southeastward across northern stretches of Santa Rosa & Okaloosa counties. These storms are also bringing heavy rain to much of southern Covington County. Loud thunder is happening in communities like Wing, Munson, Baker, Berrydale, and Red Oak.

This initial band of storms will move into areas near Crestview within the next 30 minutes.

No severe weather is happening, but these storms are producing quite a bit of lightning and very heavy rain.

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6:50AM February 28, 2019

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY; MORE RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND… Scattered showers and thunderstorms are happening on this Thursday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We’ve had a mass of rain and storms moving east across our region this morning. Some of the storms have produced loud thunder over the last few hours. There is a very low-end risk of a few strong thunderstorms capable of producing a brief damaging gust of wind or large hail. The overall tornado risk remains near zero today. The big headline today is the rain and the warm temperatures. High temperatures will again be in the mid-70s this afternoon.

INTERMITTENT STORMS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS… Showers and thunderstorms will continue to stream into our region from the west through late morning. There is a chance we could be drier later today, although I’m not comfortable taking rain chances much lower as there could be a few lingering showers around. Keep the rain gear handy throughout the day. Again, the risk of severe storms remains very low. Some of the storms may be “loud and proud” with quite a bit of thunder and lightning.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY… We note that the Storm Prediction Center has the entire area under a Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone on Friday as well (in addition to the very low-end risk in place for today), meaning an isolated severe storm may happen tomorrow too. Again, anytime we have a low-end, marginal risk, it means that a brief severe storm could happen, but widespread severe weather is not expected. I’ve crunched the numbers: Generally if an area is in a Level 1, low-end risk, about 8 out of 10 times there are no tornado warnings. It’s the 2 out of 10 times of an issuance of a Level 1 risk that feature at least one tornado warning. Big takeaway from this is anytime we have a low-end risk, we need to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings.

MORE RAIN ON SATURDAY & ON SUNDAY… Rain chances will remain elevated (40% and 60%, respectively) this weekend as a stalled frontal boundary just to the north of our area slowly drifts southwest. This, combined with some upper disturbances in the atmosphere moving by, will create enough lift and moisture for a scattered showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures peak in the upper-70s on Saturday. Temperatures will start to fall on Sunday as the cold front moves by and cool, stable air filters in.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of the western half our our local area in their Level 2 slight risk zone valid for Sunday, meaning a few strong to potentially severe storms may happen as ahead of the advancing cold front that will bring cooler air into the region. Still too early to know specifics, but there is a chance that damaging winds and isolated tornado may happen in some of the stronger storms. Be sure to check back with me this weekend for updates.

COOL & DRY FOR NEXT WEEK… The latest model guidance continues to suggest that our area will have significantly cooler temperatures next week as an air mass from the north builds in. High temperatures will likely drop into the 50s with morning lows in the 30s by midweek. This setup would largely keep rain/precip/storms away from our area for a few days at minimum.

Let me know if you have any specific questions. See all the graphics and details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Enjoy the day!

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1:13AM February 28, 2019

SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD… Rain continues to move to the east across inland areas of southwest Alabama. If you’re reading this, odds are you’ve been awakened by loud rain or perhaps even thunder. Severe weather is not likely over the next several hours. More showers and a few storms are possible, however.

My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM. See you then!

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7:02AM February 27, 2019

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6:51AM February 27, 2019

UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE; STORMS ON THURSDAY… There will be at least some chance of rain in each of the next 7 days in addition to a very low-end risk of strong storms on Thursday. Temperatures are set to rise into the low-70s this afternoon as a warm, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico returns. Today will not be a classic “all day washout,” but there will be showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms around. We remain in an unsettled, active weather pattern going into the weekend as well. Let’s talk details…

LOW-END RISK OF STRONG STORMS ON THURSDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has opted to include parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone to potentially see a few stronger storms on Thursday. Based on my review of the latest model data, I would suggest that this event will probably be on the lower end of the low risk. This means that the overall risk of tornadoes and damaging winds is very low. We still could have a few strong storms around, but the overall severe risk will probably be low to nil.

STORM TIMING THURSDAY… If any strong to severe thunderstorms happen (a big IF, at this point) they will most likely happen between 1PM and 8PM when there is a good bit of CAPE/instability in place.

RAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND… We will continue to see shortwave troughs and disturbances move across our area into the weekend across south Alabama and northwest Florida. High temperatures will generally be in the low- to mid-70s with morning lows in the 50s. Rain chances will be elevated, especially near coastal areas each day.

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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