Scattered showers continue to stream inland across the region. Nothing remotely close to severe levels as of 11:16PM. pic.twitter.com/47iW0nD2Yi
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) January 1, 2021
Scattered showers continue to stream inland across the region. Nothing remotely close to severe levels as of 11:16PM. pic.twitter.com/47iW0nD2Yi
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) January 1, 2021
From the Storm Prediction Center: “Given the lack of robust convection at this time it's not clear a new tornado watch will be warranted.”
SPC puts the odds of a new tornado watch being issued at a 40% chance. pic.twitter.com/1keq0k6VLB
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) January 1, 2021
RAIN. Just rain as of 9:27PM.
Seeing a few areas of lightning in the Gulf about 90 miles south of Pensacola.
After the year 2020, IF (still a big IF at this point!) this event ends up being a bust with no warnings locally, you’d better believe I’m going to be thankful. pic.twitter.com/3ZrEGsYWlK
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) January 1, 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Warning till 9:30PM in southeast Mississippi for parts of Jones, Jasper, and Smith counties… pic.twitter.com/XkaADZ5JsW
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) January 1, 2021
Clouds are screaming by in west Mobile @NWSMobile @spann @rzweather @WKRGEd pic.twitter.com/l7Res3ldf8
— Tyler Smith (@TylerSmith_wx) January 1, 2021
HEAVY RAIN & STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THRU FRIDAY MORNING… Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible overnight into Friday morning, including a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The confidence factor in this scenario has become lower, however, as storms have failed to fire up to our west. Rain is happening in all of our 12 local counties on this New Year’s Eve (at the time I am producing this update around 7:45PM) with heavier rain expected to begin over the next few hours. Much of our area remains involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk, meaning scattered storms may become severe at times overnight. The Storm Prediction Center notes, however, that there is a real chance storms may not materialize as expected. While this is definitely good news, we still need to watch trends over the next few hours. Please have a way to get warnings overnight. Your Thursday evening forecast details are below.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR LOCAL AREA… The Storm Prediction Center took out the Level 3 risk that was in place for parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Other than one tornado warning earlier, today has been remarkably quiet despite favorable atmospheric parameters that could have supported a few tornadoes to our west. Could this trend continue and this event be ultimately a bust? Yes, that is one possibility, however, it is FAR too early to assume that scenario will happen here. We must remain on guard for the next several hours. Things can change quickly and instead of a fairly quiet day, you can get many warnings start happening at once. We’re not out of the woods just yet, but the trends to our west have been encouraging!
TECHNICAL EXPLANATION OF WHY STORMS HAVEN’T FIRED UP SO FAR… Dewpoints are sufficient to support a few strong to severe storms near the coast, but so far we have not seen intense storms develop. Why? There is a dry slot of air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere keeping everything “in check” right now. This dry air slot was noticed earlier from a weather balloon launched from the National Weather Service in Slidell, Louisiana. In addition, instability values remain meager at best. This is good news as this atmospheric instability serves as fuel for thunderstorms. Generally speaking, if you don’t have enough CAPE to support many general thunderstorms, you can’t really get storms to “go severe.” The Storm Prediction Center notes that the Level 2 (out of 5) risk currently in place for parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and northwest Florida is a low confidence situation.
WHAT TO EXPECT – NEXT FEW HOURS… Rain is likely at times over the next 12 hours. A large mass of heavy rain is about to move onshore at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches as of 7:45PM. This shield of rain will continue moving north over the next several hours. The local National Weather Service is noting in our in-house chat system that the low-level jet and better dynamics of this weather system will begin to be realized later this evening (after 9PM). That is when the chance of a tornado warnings being potentially needed will increase. Again, please have a way to get warnings overnight before you go to sleep. Even if only one tornado happens overnight, that’s a big deal for the folks near that one storm. Be ready, just in case we have warnings!
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have ongoing updates overnight being posted in the RedZone Weather app. If or when we have tornado warnings for our local area, be sure to join me in live streaming video coverage.
Have a nice New Year’s Eve and stay safe!
So far, severe storms just haven't really materialized to our west. This is a good thing! Evening video & long form text discussion just posted here: https://t.co/b6UDpX7F2a pic.twitter.com/eeqTCOZfk1
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) January 1, 2021
Rain coverage is steadily increasing across the southern half of our local area. Big rain shield to the south will move inland over the next few hours.
So far, no warnings anywhere close by. Severe weather parameters will likely increase later this evening. pic.twitter.com/DoJh6hT6xH
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) January 1, 2021
See that big comma-looking system? That's the one that is ultimately responsible for our severe weather risk in the overnight hours.
Thankful for the GOES satellite imagery of the last year. Invaluable tools that aid countless operations in the Western Hemisphere! pic.twitter.com/Mhfd7V21kB
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) December 31, 2020