STORMS FADING… Other than a few small thunderstorms firing near Foley, Magnolia Springs, and Marley in southern Baldwin County, most of the shower and thunderstorm action has faded away across south Alabama and northwest Florida. A few showers continue across portions of Monroe, Butler, Conecuh, and Escambia (AL) counties. These showers should fade slowly over the next few hours.

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STORMS MOVING NORTH… Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and progressively move north across our region. Storms are dropping very heavy rain in portions of Conecuh and Butler counties near Evergreen, Cohassett, and Owassa. Storms will continue to move north over the next few hours.

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BIG MASS OF RAIN/STORMS MOVING NORTH… Showers and thunderstorms continue to move inland across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Rain will begin within the next hour in Grove Hill, Jackson, Perdue Hill, Wagerville, Monroeville, and Excel. Be ready for scattered downpours of heavy rain this afternoon! No severe weather issues are expected today.

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TROPICS HEATING UP QUICKLY… There remains a 10-20% chance that a tropical storm may form in the Gulf of Mexico in the middle part of next week. We’re also now keeping tabs on what will be Tropical Storm Florence later today or tonight in the far eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean, near the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Friday and over the next few days. Let’s talk details, first about today and tonight locally then shifting to the tropics…

STORMS AROUND TODAY… Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will pop up today across the region very similar to previous days. These storms are not associated with a tropical system, but are instead rooted in the seabreeze and ample heat content in the atmopshere. Some of these summer pop up storms can absolutely put weak tropical systems to shame! Keep tabs on the radar throughout the day into the evening. Severe weather is not expected, but these storms can and will “pack a punch” in some cases with gusty winds, heavy rain and cloud-to-ground lightning. Storms will progressively fade after sunset.

FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL… High school football either begins or continues in Week 2 for many schools across our region this evening. Rain chances are a bit higher tonight compared to last Friday night. MOST of us across the region should be dry, but there will be some games that have rain/storms around. Take the umbrellas tonight, just in case you’re under a shower. Game time temps at 7PM will be around 81 degrees in most spots, falling to around 75 by the 4th quarter.

TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO GULF… No real changes to pass along since last night’s update (read the detailed post here). The National Hurricane Center continues to call for a 10-20%, low-end chance that a tropical storm may form in the Gulf of Mexico next week, likely in the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe. It’s still too early to say whether impacts will be an issue around our local area. We’ll monitor this system carefully and bring you an update first thing on Saturday morning. Again, no need to stress or worry about this system as of now. It’s at least 5 days out with plenty of uncertainty in the low confidence forecast. More data will help firm up the forecast this weekend into early next week.

IMPACTS NOTE… **IF** (and that’s a big IF, at this point) impacts happen because of the tropical wave that may become a tropical storm in the Gulf, we’re looking at the Tuesday to Friday timeframe for our local area. Again, odds are such that no major local impacts are expected as of now. I’ll keep you posted here on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app.

FLORENCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE… The National Hurricane Center has the system branded as “Potential Tropical Cyclone #6” as of now, but this system will be (if it is not already by the time you see this post!) Tropical Storm Florence likely before the end of the day. Florence-to-be is expected to become a hurricane over the next few days as it moves northwest over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. The official forecast (and all major weather models) show Florence recurving north and ultimately northeast over the Atlantic and staying well away from any landmass. We’ll watch it, but the preliminary forecasts show good news!

STORMS THIS WEEKEND… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will happen again across the Deep South on Saturday and on Sunday. Rain chances will go down slightly as an upper ridge builds in from the north. If you’re headed to a local beach, there will be some sunshine in the mix. High temperatures will be around 90 consistently over the next few days.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right) here in the RZWeather app to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me. (big, yellow “Alert Settings” button!)

Let me know if you have any weather-related questions or concerns. My next forecast post on Facebook will be up by 7:15AM on Saturday. You’re not guaranteed to see my posts on Facebook, but you ARE guaranteed to see the latest from me if you download the RedZone Weather app and tap the “Latest” button. Plenty of updates in the app all day long into this evening. Have a wonderful weekend!

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FEW EARLY MORNING STORMS… If you’re waking up to the sound of raindrops in Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, or parts of southern Baldwin County, it’s because there are isolated showers and thunderstorms developing on this Friday morning.

Most of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida should remain dry through sunrise. Storms are likely to pop up throughout the day after sunrise.

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TROPICAL UPDATE: TROPICAL WAVE MOVING TOWARD GULF… The National Hurricane Center now says there is a 10-20% chance of tropical storm development in the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. Keep in mind, that is a low-end chance very much in line with what we first told you about last evening. The details we know and the details we do NOT know have not changed in the last 24 hours in that the headline remains: There is a low-end chance of a tropical storm forming in the Gulf next week that has a chance of affecting Alabama and northwest Florida. There’s also a chance the system may remain a “weak” tropical wave and have virtually no local impacts. That’s the summary. Here are your details on this Thursday evening…

MODEL INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE… Unfortunately, the medium-range weather model guidance has not come into better agreement just yet. The American-based GFS model continues to suggest a more quiet pattern with very little in the way of local impacts, while the ECMWF (Euro) model has hinted in some runs at a slightly stronger system (perhaps in the form of a tropical storm). Often, it’s difficult for models to get a good grip on tropical systems until they actually develop. In this case, because “formal development” may not ever happen, there’s a good chance this will be a difficult system to forecast. That’s not to say that clarity won’t come as time passes, as it definitely will, BUT we may not be able to get specific with potential impacts (if any) until next week.

DON’T CHANGE ANY PLANS YET… It’s way too early to consider trip/vacation cancellations/postponements. We’re in a “wait and see” mode at this point. There is a high chance at this point that impacts from this system may be negligible. It’s all about chances. There’s also a chance (on the other end of the spectrum) that we could be dealing with a tropical storm next week. The “truth” of what actually happens probably is in the middle of those two ‘extremes.’ The good news is no major model has pointed to this system ramping up anywhere close to being a hurricane. That’s a trend we want to continue!

HURRICANE FLORENCE IN THE MAKING… The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on “Potential Tropical Cyclone #6” today. That system is located just off the coast of Africa near the Cabo Verde Islands. PTC #6 will highly likely become a tropical storm anytime in the next 24 hours… It will take the name “Florence.” What will be Tropical Storm Florence will likely become a hurricane this weekend or early next week. Good news is that all major model guidance points to this system remaining out at sea in the Atlantic Ocean with NO impacts to any land after it passes the Cabo Verde Islands tomorrow.

STORMS ON FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND… Pop-up showers and thunderstorms are expected to happen again on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. These storms are NOT associated with a tropical system, they’re rooted in the seabreeze that moves inland everyday in the summer season. Severe weather is not expected this weekend and the tornado risk remains at basically zero. I’ll have a full look at your Friday forecast and Friday Night Lights outlook in the Friday morning #rzw forecast video that will be posted by 7:15AM on Facebook and here in the RedZone Weather app.

Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great evening!

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