CONTROLLED FIRES ON RADAR… If you’ve checked the local radar view this evening, you’ve probably noticed several echos in various places across our region. These are actually radar detected smoke plumes from local controlled burns that are happening across the region. The largest smoke plume is happening near Myrtle Grove and Warrington on the west side of the Pensacola metro.
No rain today! Temperatures are peaking in the mid-60s.
Most locales are in the low- to mid-60s across the region as we go into the lunch hour on this Saturday. Highs will peak in the 65-67 degree range. Warmer temps for Sunday and Monday! pic.twitter.com/K3989BJHwD
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) February 29, 2020
MAINLY SUNNY LEAP DAY; STORMS LIKELY BY MIDWEEK… Picture perfect weather is expected on this Leap Day Saturday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Mostly sunny skies are likely this morning with a few clouds becoming possible later today. High temperatures will peak in the 65-69° range this afternoon. Cloud coverage will continue to increase on Sunday, but I expect rain to hold off until Monday. Temperatures will continue to progressively increase tomorrow and on Monday. Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms will happen on Wednesday of the upcoming week. Some of the storms could be on the strong side, but it is still too early to pinpoint whether severe weather will be a widespread issue or (more likely) just an isolated issue with general storms for most across our region. Let’s talk details.
ONE MORE COLD NIGHT… After peaking in the mid- to upper-60s today, temperatures will decline into the 50s by 6PM. Keep the jackets close by tonight and certainly overnight if you’re planning to be outside. Most spots will settle into the upper-30s by daybreak on Sunday. This will be our last night with temperatures below 40° until at least Saturday morning of next week (one week from today).
PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD SUNDAY… While cloud coverage will be increasing throughout the day on Sunday, all of the rain should remain to our west. There will be some peeks of sunshine, even into the evening hours on Sunday. High temperatures will peak around the 70 degree mark. This will be our last Sunday on standard time as Daylight Saving Time kicks off one week from tomorrow!
SHOWERS RETURN FOR MONDAY… Pockets of rain will start on Monday ahead of an unsettled weather pattern that will persist until the passage of a cold front on Thursday. We’ll call it a 20-30% chance of showers on Monday across our area. High temperatures on Monday will peak in the low- to mid-70s with dewpoint temperatures expected to rise throughout the day, meaning the air will feel more humid as we get into Monday night. No severe weather issues are expected until midweek.
MORE RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY… Intermittent rain is likely on Tuesday with temperatures likely creeping up into the upper-70s by the late morning and early afternoon hours. The greatest chance of rain will happen after dark on Tuesday, although rain will be possible at times during the daytime hours as well. We’ll need to watch instability levels Tuesday afternoon, as there may be enough to support a few thunderstorms near the coast.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY… Our next chance of strong thunderstorms is set to happen on Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center included much of Mississippi, southern Arkansas, eastern Texas, and Louisiana in their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for TUESDAY, meaning the risk would shift eastward into our area on WEDNESDAY. The guidance on Friday suggested that there may be somewhat of a mismatch of “severe weather ingredients” that happens, thus potentially limiting severe storms locally, although I caution it is still quite early in this process. We’ll need to monitor trends as we go into next week. I’ll bring you the latest info later today in the RedZone Weather app.
SLIGHTLY COOLER BY END OF NEXT WEEK… Clouds move out on Thursday, giving way to sunshine late in the day and into Friday. High temperatures will drop into the upper-60s for Friday and Saturday (one week from today) with mostly sunny skies expected each day.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
Have a nice Saturday and enjoy the nice weather today!
Upcoming storm total rainfall amounts next week forecast to add up to between 3 to perhaps 7 inches up across the Tennessee River Valley. Not good news for river flood ravaged areas which would show another response. pic.twitter.com/KfGgBfLzPa
— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) February 28, 2020
Some impressive high resolution satellite imagery showing just how much water has overtaken the banks of many rivers. Another satellite imagery shows the entirety of Mobile Bay seeing freshwater discharge draining southward from swollen rivers feeding into the Bay. pic.twitter.com/37E1de8IcY
— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) February 27, 2020
We get a nice weekend with rebounding temperatures ahead of active weather next week. Looks like Wednesday may feature a few strong to potentially severe storms. Details will come into better focus over the next few days! ⛈ pic.twitter.com/aZ5wRkfkSv
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) February 28, 2020
SUNNY, NICE WEEKEND; STORMS RETURN NEXT WEEK… Enjoy the sunshine and seasonal weather this weekend as we have a growing chance of rain, storms, and potentially severe weather as we go into the middle part of the upcoming week. Full sunshine is expected on this Friday with high temperatures rebounding into the low- to mid-60s by 2PM. We’ll be in the 50s this evening ahead of another cold night with overnight lows dipping into the upper-30s. More sunshine is expected on both Saturday and Sunday ahead of our next chance of showers setting up for late Monday into Tuesday. Strong to severe storms will become a possibility by Wednesday as a potent cold front approaches from the northwest. That is your forecast summary, below are all of the details.
TRANQUIL, NICE, COOL WEEKEND… No need to stress or worry about our local weather this weekend. It doesn’t get much better than this for late February and early March. Sunny skies will happen on Saturday with high temperatures in the 63-67° range across our region. Temperatures rebound into the upper-60s on Sunday and there is a chance some locales will hit the 70 degree mark. Clouds will likely increase in coverage in the evening hours of Sunday ahead of a few showers becoming possible on Monday.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING… Much of the day on Monday will be dry, but we could see the first showers associated with our next weathermaker as early as Monday evening. We’ll call it a 20% chance of showers for now. Highs on Monday will surge into the low-70s as a warm, moist airmass sets up across our region.
MORE RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY… Temperatures will increase on Tuesday and some spots might make a run at 80 degrees by the afternoon hours. Mostly cloudy skies are expected with rain coverage increasing during the daytime hours across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We’ll be watching storms to our west on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined nearly all of Mississippi and much of Louisiana, Arkansas, and east Texas in a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Tuesday. This means that tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and hail will all be possible in those areas Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and hail will be concerns on Wednesday, most likely in the daytime hours (although it is still quite early and that is highly subject to change!). It is too early to know specific details, but the overall atmospheric setup looks at least somewhat conducive for strong to severe storms. We have plenty of time between now and this potential severe weather setup, thus plenty of time to prepare accordingly. We’re talking about March in the Deep South, which is our “normal severe weather season.” No need to panic or stress about this, but we do want everyone to have a way to get warnings and have a plan in place just in case tornado or severe thunderstorm warnings are required for parts of our area on Wednesday. I’ll keep you posted about details in the RedZone Weather app.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video. Have a great weekend!
Yard work & outdoor chores piling up? Well, get ready to check some of those items off your never-ending To Do list. This weekend will be dry. Yes, folks, you heard that right…DRY!!! Need we say more? 🌞 🙌
(Rain returns late Sunday.) #alwx
— NWS Birmingham (@NWSBirmingham) February 28, 2020
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK… RZW Exec partners, good Thursday afternoon to each of you. We have had somewhat of a lull in severe weather activity in the last two weeks. That changes next week when we could have another round of strong to severe storms. Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding will all be possible on Wednesday, March 4 as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has added much of Mississippi, southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and eastern Texas into their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Tuesday. I expect a continuation of this risk into Wednesday. We’ll get a new convective outlook valid for this timeframe tomorrow (Friday) morning.
It is still quite early in the process, meaning a lot can and will change between now and the middle part of next week but the big takeaway is that we probably will have active weather rumbling through. Water levels of creeks and rivers over west Alabama remain elevated due to all of the recent heavy rain that we’ve had. Flash flooding could quickly become an issue depending on where the rain axis sets up next week.
My next RZW Exec update will be posted by Sunday evening, at the latest. Until then, be sure to let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a great evening!