FORECAST ON TRACK: BARRY TO THE SOUTH; LOCAL IMPACTS LIMITED… RZW Exec members, good Thursday evening! We’ve updated our potential local impacts summary to reflect a low-end tornado potential that will likely continue into Saturday after the core of Tropical Storm Barry makes landfall to our west in Louisiana. In addition, you’ll see below that a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for parts of Louisiana. Please see the updated briefing below. As always, let me know if you have any decision support needs.

TROPICAL STORM BARRY PROMPTS HURRICANE WARNING FOR LOUISIANA… Tropical Storm Barry continues to organize over the northern Gulf of Mexico. What does that mean for south Alabama and northwest Florida? Heavy rain will be likely at times over the next 3-4 days. Some spots may pick up over 5 inches of rain locally before the event is over. Isolated tornadoes could become a problem at the immediate coast and over west Alabama this weekend. Local wind impacts are not expected. That’s a short summary of what YOU can expect if you’re in our local area. Impacts will be much more significant across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Let’s look at updated details this evening…

NEW: 4PM TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST INFO… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has just issued Advisory #6 for Tropical Storm Barry. Maximum sustained winds are at 40mph with higher gusts near the center of the circulation area. Barry is expected to strengthen over the next 24 to 36 hours before landfall along the central Louisiana coast. NHC continues to suggest landfall will happen as a category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. The “cone of uncertainty” or projected path has not changed much at all. The cone extends from Cameron, Louisiana eastward to the New Orleans area. That means that the center of Barry will very likely come on shore in that coastline range. Keep in mind, effects from the storm will extend hundreds of miles away from the center. The cone of uncertainty is a forecast for the CENTER of the storm and is not intended to communicate impacts/effects surrounding the center.

NEW: HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR LOUISIANA… We note that no hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings are in effect for any part of Alabama or Florida at this time. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the coast of Louisiana from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans. The entirety of the Mississippi coast is under a Tropical Storm Watch.

NOT MUCH RAIN SO FAR TODAY; RAIN MORE LIKELY IN DAYS AHEAD… Scattered downpours of heavy rain have happened over the last several hours across the local area. We note that much of the region has been under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, however. Much of the convection associated with Tropical Storm Barry remains on the south side of the center of circulation. Interestingly, the northern side of the system (the side we care about because it is the side over Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama) remains dry and devoid of major, organized convection. This will probably change in the overnight hours and on Friday as convection begins to fill in around the center of the storm.

LOCAL IMPACTS UPDATE FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… If you’ve been reading my long form posts over the last 2-3 days, this information has not changed that much. We expect heavy rain at times on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday that could lead to isolated areas of flash flooding. That will be the number one concern for our local area. Isolated, brief, spin-up tornadoes may become possible at the immediate beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida on Friday and into the weekend. There could be a few tornadoes over west Alabama on Sunday as well as what is left of Barry moves farther inland. This will be something to monitor over the next day or so. Widespread wind issues are not expected locally. Dangerous rip currents continue to happen at our local beaches.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Most spots across our region will pick up 3 to 4 inches of rain in total over the next 4 to 6 days. There will be some spots that get 4 to 7 inches of rain, especially near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Rain chances will be greatest each day in the afternoon and evening hours. It cannot be stressed enough that heavy rain and flash flooding will be a significant concern, especially closer to the immediate coastline. NEVER attempt to drive on a water-covered roadway. We lose too many people across America each year to this totally preventable cause of death! “Turn around, don’t drown” is the phrase.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH… No changes or additions to report as of this update. The entirety of Mobile, Washington, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties are under a Flash Flood Watch. 5 to 7 inches of rain will be possible in these areas. This includes Chatom, Millry, Citronelle, Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Beach, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, and Navarre.

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE AT THE COAST FRIDAY… Let me emphasize that for ALL areas in south Alabama and northwest Florida, the overall tornado risk remains very low. We’re concerned about areas near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches due to a low-end tornado risk. Isolated supercell thunderstorms may rotate around the center of Tropical Storm Barry over the next day or two. These cells could produce tornadoes over water (aka tornadic waterspouts) that approach the shoreline. It’s in these immediate beach zones that could see a brief, spin-up tornado. This includes areas like Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Fort Pickens, Oriole Beach, Navarre, Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, and Miramar Beach. Have a way to get tornado warnings, especially if you’re near the coast!

NEW: ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE AREAWIDE SATURDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included vast majority of our local area in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for Saturday. This includes inland areas as well, particularly over west Alabama. The concern is after Barry makes landfall in Louisiana, the system will move north and potentially spin up a few, brief tornadoes across Mississippi and southwest Alabama. The Level 1 risk is in place from Eutaw and Marion southward to Selma and to the beaches. This means that Mobile, Pensacola, Fairhope, Orange Beach, Brewton, Atmore, Monroeville, Thomasville, Chatom, Butler, Demopolis, and surroudning areas are included in this risk zone. If any tornadoes happen, they probably won’t be big or last very long – but as I often caution, that doesn’t matter. If a tornado affects you, it’s a big deal!

WIND ISSUES NOT EXPECTED LOCALLY… We’ll have breezy (10-25mph) wind gusts at the immediate coast, but I’m not expecting any wind issues for inland areas due to this passing tropical storm. There could be higher wind gusts in Mississippi and certainly in Louisiana, but wind issues in south Alabama and northwest Florida should be little to none.

UPDATED: DEADLY RIP CURRENTS HAPPENING… This has already been a problem today with multiple reports of people defying red flag orders and getting in the Gulf. Most people don’t realize that the number ONE natural hazard killer in our region is dangerous rip currents! We’ve lost more people to rip currents since 1996 compared to all other natural hazard deaths combined. Most of the victims are people who are from out of our local area that probably didn’t realize the danger. It should be common sense, but just in case it’s not: Don’t get in the water when there is a tropical storm or hurricane around. It’s just not a good idea.

COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE… Low-lying areas at the immediate beach zones that are accustomed to flooding during passing tropical systems may have some coastal flooding issues as we go into the weekend. Widespread coastal flooding issues are not expected, however.

#1 QUESTION I GET: DO I CANCEL MY PLANS?… Unfortunately, this is another question I simply cannot answer. Baseball tournaments, ballet performances, football/soccer games are all scheduled for this weekend. We all have different thresholds and tolerances for what we’re willing to put up with in terms of heavy rain or bad weather. I’m the type of person that will drive through just about anything. Heavy rain just does not bother me. I have people in my family, however, that will not drive through heavy rain. The fact is we have a high chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as the core of Tropical Storm Barry passes to our south and west. If I had an event in Louisiana, I would most likely cancel (depending on the event type). If I had an event locally or to the east, I probably wouldn’t cancel (depending on the event type, again). You might, I’m not sure. It’s just all about what you’re willing to deal with. Heavy rain will be possible at times.

PLEASE USE THE REDZONE WEATHER APP… If you’re following RedZone Weather on Facebook, thank you! If you’re following me on Facebook ALONE, however, you’re missing out. Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download). There is plenty more content in the app compared to what I post on Facebook each day. See below about how to set up app alerts.

SET UP APP ALERTS… We provide a variety of different options to fit your weather information needs. You should control how many alerts you want. We help with that by providing High-Level Alerts, Medium-Level Alerts, and Low-Level Alerts. Everyone gets the High-Level Alerts. We send one or two of those PER YEAR, so not very often at all. We reserve those alerts for high impact weather events. Medium-Level Alerts are recommended for most people. They’re the important alerts, but not necessarily super urgent. Low-Level Alerts are designed for people who want many, many alerts throughout the day. You’ll also want to turn ON alerts for the counties you care about. To do all of this, download the RedZone Weather app and visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to turn on the specific alerts you want.

I will be doing a special live video update later this evening. Hope you’ll join me for that!

RZW EXEC UPDATE ON PTC3/BARRY… RZW Exec partners, good evening! We’re tracking the system that is about to become Tropical Storm Barry in the northern Gulf of Mexico. There will be some minor impacts, mainly heavy rain, over the next few days across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Clearly, however, the greater impacts will likely happen to our west across parts of western Mississippi, Louisiana, and east Texas as Barry takes aim at those areas. This is a long discussion that will, for the most part, be published publicly later this evening. As always, let me know if you have any decision support questions.

PTC3/BARRY PASSING TO OUR SOUTH

PTC3/BARRY LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY… The system that is about to become Tropical Storm Barry continues to gain organization in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Barry will become a category 1 hurricane before the likely landfall in Louisiana or east Texas this weekend. While heavy rain and flash flooding will be our main concerns in south Alabama and northwest Florida, we also note the possibility of a few coastal tornadoes in the immediate beach zones locally over the next few days. Flash flood watches have been issued locally. Tropical storm watches are now in effect for parts of Louisiana. Plenty to discuss this evening. Let’s talk…

NOMENCLATURE MATTERS LESS, IMPACTS MATTER MORE… Let me be direct and say the nomenclature/naming scheme that the U.S. government chooses to use has become horrendous. What we care about is impacts, which is what this discussion will focus on. Whether we call it “Potential Tropical Cyclone #2” or “Tropical Storm Barry,” this system is basically a developing tropical depression right now. The system will almost certainly become Tropical Storm Barry in the next 24-48 hours. PTC3/Barry/”whatever you want to call it” is about to drop a LOT of rain across the Southern U.S. with other impacts expected (detailed extensively below).

FORECAST FOR PTC3/BARRY… Strengthening is expected over the next 24-48 hours. PTC3/Barry will likely ramp up to a 50-60mph tropical storm in the next day or two. The system is expected to become a category 1 or category 2 hurricane as it makes landfall in Louisiana or east Texas this weekend. At the moment, landfall is most likely to happen Saturday P.M. or Sunday A.M. We caution that the timeframe may change somewhat as the system continues to organize over the next day or two. PTC3/Barry will continue to fling in warm, Gulf moisture even after the center of circulation passes by our area to the south. We will be on the eastern side of the circulation, meaning the flow will be out of the south. That’s why rain chances will remain HIGH locally through the weekend with a low-end chance of isolated tornadoes at the coast.

LOCAL IMPACTS FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… We now have high confidence about all impacts discussed below. This probably will not change much over the next few days. It cannot be stressed enough that heavy rain and flash flooding will be a significant concern, especially closer to the immediate coastline. NEVER attempt to drive on a water-covered roadway. We lose too many people across America each year to this totally preventable cause of death! “Turn around, don’t drown” is the phrase. Isolated tornadoes at the the immediate beach zones will also be a concern.

FLASH FLOODING & HEAVY RAIN… We’ve adjusted projected rainfall amounts even higher based on the latest data from the Weather Prediction Center. Most spots across our region will pick up 3 to 4 inches of rain in total over the next 5 to 7 days. There will be some spots that get 5 to 8 inches of rain, especially near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Rain chances will be greatest each day in the afternoon and evening hours.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH… The entirety of Mobile, Washington, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties are under a Flash Flood Watch. 5 to 7 inches of rain will be possible in these areas. This includes Chatom, Millry, Citronelle, Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Beach, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, and Navarre.

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE AT THE COAST… Let me emphasize that for ALL areas in south Alabama and northwest Florida, the overall tornado risk remains VERY low. For most spots across inland counties, the tornado risk remains at or near zero. We’re concerned about areas near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches due to a low-end tornado risk. Isolated supercell thunderstorms may rotate around the center of PTC2/Barry over the next 48 hours. These cells could produce tornadoes over water (aka tornadic waterspouts) that approach the shoreline. It’s in these immediate beach zones that could see a brief, spin-up tornado. This includes areas like Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Fort Pickens, Oriole Beach, Navarre, Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, and Miramar Beach. Have a way to get tornado warnings, especially if you’re near the coast!

NO MAJOR WIND ISSUES EXPECTED LOCALLY… We’ll have breezy (10-25mph) wind gusts at the immediate coast, but I’m not expecting any wind issues for inland areas due to this passing tropical storm. There could be higher wind gusts in Mississippi and certainly in Louisiana, but wind issues in south Alabama and northwest Florida should be little to none.

RIP CURRENTS KILL… Most people don’t realize that the number ONE natural hazard killer in our region is dangerous rip currents! We’ve lost more people to rip currents since 1996 compared to all other natural hazard deaths combined. Most of the victims are people who are from out of our local area that probably didn’t realize the danger. It should be common sense, but just in case it’s not: Don’t get in the water when there is a tropical storm or hurricane around. It’s just not a good idea.

COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE… Low-lying areas at the immediate beach zones that are accustomed to flooding during passing tropical systems may have some coastal flooding issues as we go into the weekend. Widespread coastal flooding issues are not expected, however.

BLUE ANGELS UPDATE… It is Blue Angels weekend at Pensacola Beach. The Blues are doing their practice shows Thursday and Friday ahead of the big show at 2PM on Saturday. Unfortunately, rain chances will remain HIGH on Saturday. It’s impossible to pinpoint exactly where showers and thunderstorms will be happening at 2PM Saturday, but I can tell you with high confidence that there will be rain around. We’ll call it an 80 to 90 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Depending on the exact future track of PTC2/Barry, we may have to adjust rain chances higher or lower in the next day or two.

#1 QUESTION I GET: DO I CANCEL MY PLANS?… Unfortunately, this is another question I simply cannot answer. Baseball tournaments, ballet performances, football/soccer games are all scheduled for this weekend. We all have different thresholds and tolerances for what we’re willing to put up with in terms of heavy rain or bad weather. I’m the type of person that will drive through just about anything. Heavy rain just does not bother me. I have people in my family, however, that will not drive through heavy rain. The fact is we have a high chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as the core of PTC2/Barry passes to our south and west. If I had an event in Louisiana, I would most likely cancel (depending on the event type). If I had an event locally or to the east, I probably wouldn’t cancel (depending on the event type, again). You might, I’m not sure. It’s just all about what you’re willing to deal with. Lots of rain upcoming!

TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN LOUISIANA… There is a tropical storm watch in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River (south of Buras, Louisiana) westward to Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane Watches will be needed later tonight or tomorrow for parts of the Louisiana coast.

PLENTY MORE INFO IN REDZONE WEATHER APP… If you’re following RedZone Weather on Facebook, thank you! If you’re following me on Facebook ALONE, however, you’re missing out. Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app (redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download). There is plenty more content in the app compared to what I post on Facebook each day. See below about how to set up app alerts.

APP ALERTS… We provide a variety of different options to fit your weather information needs. You should control how many alerts you want. We help with that by providing High-Level Alerts, Medium-Level Alerts, and Low-Level Alerts. Everyone gets the High-Level Alerts. We send one or two of those PER YEAR, so not very often at all. We reserve those alerts for high impact weather events. Medium-Level Alerts are recommended for most people. They’re the important alerts, but not necessarily super urgent. Low-Level Alerts are designed for people who want many, many alerts throughout the day. You’ll also want to turn ON alerts for the counties you care about. To do all of this, download the RedZone Weather app and visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to turn on the specific alerts you want.

My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Facebook. Plenty more updates will be available in the RedZone Weather app between now and then. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great evening!

LIVE VIDEO UPDATE THIS EVENING… RZW Exec partners, good evening! I will be producing a special live video update that will air on Facebook Live and here in the RedZone Weather app this evening talking about the potential for a tropical storm to develop in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later this week. This system, based on the latest guidance, will move to our south with little in the way of significant impacts for our local area. That is, IF the current forecast verifies. Hope you’ll join us for the live update around 7:30PM. As always, let me know if you have any decision support questions! Here is a first look at my discussion that will be posted publicly during the live video update.

TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM IN GULF LATE THIS WEEK… Confidence is now high that a tropical storm will form over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in the next 3-5 days. If you have a vacation at the beach or are interested in the Blue Angels shows, see the detailed info below. What will likely become Tropical Storm Barry will move west across the Gulf with the center of the storm probably ending up somewhere along the Louisiana or Texas coast this weekend. That is the most likely scenario, at this point, based on continuing trends of the major global weather models. We note that forecast revisions are still very much possible and there is no doubt that this is a system we will need to keep a close eye on in the days ahead. If the most likely scenario verifies, that means that south Alabama and northwest Florida will have very little in the way of big impacts. There will be increased rain chances around this weekend with high waves and dangerous rip currents being likely at area beaches, but those two impacts will probably happen regardless of if formal development happens. That’s the latest summary. Here are some specifics…

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… Higher rain chances will be likely Friday, Saturday, into Sunday as what will likely be a developing tropical storm passes well to our south. That statement is based on the latest guidance from all models and the National Hurricane Center. This could mean that a flash flooding threat may set up across the coastal half of our region. In addition, there is high confidence that dangerous rip currents will happen at all of our local Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Rip currents have killed more folks in our local area than ALL other natural hazards combined since 1996. Most of the folks who have passed away due to rip currents are people from outside of our local area that don’t understand the dangers of rip currents. Coastal flooding will also be a concern in low-lying areas.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… Our coastal counties (Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Baldwin, and Mobile counties could have upwards of 3-6” of total rainfall over the next 7 days. This could prompt a flash flooding issue in isolated spots across the region. Inland areas will likely have 1-4” of rain in total with isolated higher amounts over the next 7 days.

IMPACTS WILL INCREASE *IF* TRACK FORECAST CHANGES… Let me stress that the above-mentioned impacts may substantially increase if we see a track deviation or significant forecast changes, which at this point cannot be completely ruled out. Confidence is increasing in a westward track that would put the center of this likely tropical storm well to our south, but we aren’t “out of the woods” completely just yet. Be sure to check back with me over the next few days for the very latest!

MY THOUGHTS ON YOUR VACATION PLANS… I’ve had several questions about folks wondering about their vacation plans to our area beaches this weekend. See more details about the Blue Angels shows in the detailed paragraph below. I can’t give specific advice as to whether you should postpone your vacation plans or not, but what I can tell you is there is a high likelihood that much of the daytime hours of Saturday could have scattered showers and thunderstorms around. Rain amounts this weekend could top 3-4” in total from Friday through Sunday. If you can, I would wait to make a decision about postponing a trip until Wednesday or Thursday when more details are available.

BLUE ANGELS FORECAST… Like many of you, I am proud that the Blue Angels call Pensacola home! The big Pensacola Beach Blue Angels Air Show is later this week into this weekend. Here’s what you need to know in terms of the weather forecast: Wednesday for “Breakfast with the Blues” at 8AM should be fine. Scattered clouds are expected but most of the pop-up storms will happen later in the day on Wednesday. Thursday will be the practice show at 2PM. Scattered thunderstorms are expected and it’s too early to know when and where those will happen. Friday will also feature a practice run at 2PM at Pensacola Beach. There could be scattered to numerous thunderstorms around. The main Blue Angels show is scheduled to happen Saturday at 2PM. Unfortunately, rain chances are high. It’s not a certainty that there will be rain and storms around, but it is a likelihood at this point. Be sure to check back with me later this week for an update on the Blues!

NOT UNPRECEDENTED STORM MOTION/DEVELOPMENT… Many people have asked questions about just how rare it is to have a developing area of low pressure moving from the inland areas of the Southeastern U.S. over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. “Home grown” systems like this are not uncommon as one might think. Weakening cold fronts often stall and will spin up a tropical system close to land. Hurricane Arthur in 2014 had a similar situation in its genesis. A tropical area of low pressure developed over land before emerging over the Atlantic Ocean and developing into what would become Hurricane Arthur. That’s just one example. There have been other systems, even in the Gulf of Mexico, that have developed due to a feature moving off land and over the warm waters of the Gulf. I think the difference here is people are seeing the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center and more people are actually aware of how a tropical storm may form.

POP-UP STORMS & BIG TIME HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY… Scattered afternoon and evening pop-up thunderstorms will continue to be a daily fixture in our weather forecast over the next 3-4 days before we start observing a likely increase in rain/storm chances due to the likely tropical storm passing to our south. The storms through Thursday have nothing to do with the tropical feature. These will be the “daily deluge” of showers and thunderstorms that are primarily influenced/develop because of the seabreeze that moves in daily from the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures will continue to be in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s.

Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great evening!

POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATE NEXT WEEK… RZW Exec members, good Friday afternoon! It’s been several weeks since we’ve had any significant weather changes to report to you. Our weather pattern has been remarkably consistent with afternoon and evening pop-up thunderstorms, ample heat, and plenty of humidity. This afternoon, we’re observing the first credible signs that a tropical storm may develop close to our local area at the end of next week.

There is still plenty of uncertainty with this, meaning we have more questions than answers at this point. I have not publicly mentioned this possibility just yet, as I want to review incoming data this afternoon and this evening to ensure model consistency and continuity in this idea. I did want you to be the first to know, however, that we have at least some chance of having a more active weather pattern approximately one week from today. Below is rough draft of how the public post will be written, if needed, this evening…

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE “CLOSE TO HOME” NEXT WEEK… There is a small, yet growing, chance that a tropical storm may form in the northern Gulf of Mexico toward the end of next week into the next weekend (July 10-14). While there are still MANY uncertainties, consistent model data continues to support the idea of some tropical mischief in the northern Gulf late next week. These model signals point to increased rain chances late next week for south Alabama and northwest Florida, at bare minimum. Again, we have more questions than answers at this point as to IF or when this tropical storm will form. Let’s talk about what we do know…

MODEL IDEA GAINING TRACTION… The ECMWF (Euro) model started hinting yesterday that a surface area of low pressure may form in the northern Gulf of Mexico at the tail end of a trough by the end of next week. The European model continues to suggest this area of low pressure will develop in the northern Gulf before looping back to the northeast and making landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast. It’s too early to know whether this landfall will be as a designated tropical storm or as a general, “weaker” area of low pressure. The image above is a screen capture of the European model valid at 7PM Friday, July 12, showing the 850mb winds and MSLP (barometric pressure). This view shows a 990mb tropical storm (winds probably in the 40-50mph range, if that model screenshot happened to be correct) centered just south of Pensacola. The American-based Global Forecast System (GFS) has also hinted at this same potential. It is important to note that not all models are on board with this idea, with the Canadian and NAVGEM models not alluding to this potential at all.

INCONSISTENT MODEL DATA EXPECTED… While the overall idea of an area of low pressure seems to be gaining traction with the major global models, it is totally normal to see models “all over the board” at this stage of this process. Models will continue to get a better grasp of the atmospheric setup as we go through the weekend and get into early next week. Data will likely become more consistent, and thus I’ll be able to give more details as we get closer to this potential tropical storm event.

SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN GULF… We note much of the northern Gulf of Mexico has sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 84°. Typically, tropical systems need SSTs of near 80° to form.

BEYOND THAT, UNCERTAINTY… No one, and I mean absolutely no one, knows IF this system will, indeed, materialize into a tropical storm and threaten the United States. Is that a small possibility as of now? Yes, but there’s been low consistency as to where the system will ultimately end up (both on the GFS and Euro). I would suggest everyone from Louisiana eastward to north Florida keep an eye on this system. Obviously, that includes ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. No need for fear, panic, or anxiety as no one knows if this system will develop or where it will end up, however the idea is there for a minimal tropical storm potential in the northern Gulf next week.

WHAT IS CAUSING THIS POTENTIAL… There will be a trough, or a dip in the jet stream, in place across the southeastern U.S. on Wednesday into Thursday (July 10-11). This trough will sag southward into the northern Gulf where a surface area of low pressure will likely develop in the northeastern or north central Gulf of Mexico likely on Friday into Saturday (a week from today). Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are in the 84-87 degree range in this part of the Gulf, meaning there is plenty of fuel in place for a potential tropical storm. SSTs are only one factor, though. We note that upper level atmospheric winds/shear looks favorable for the development of a tropical storm.

SOCIAL MEDIA CRAZINESS AHEAD… Long-time viewers and readers know that it drives me crazy to see outlandish, inaccurate, wild weather model images circulating on social media. I suspect you’ll see crazy clickbait images in the days ahead regarding this system. The truth is, we don’t have a firm grip just yet of anything concrete. What we know at this point is there is a growing consensus that a tropical storm could form/move across the northern quadrant of the Gulf of Mexico late next week. Please join me in not sharing bad info… That just feeds the trolls and hype machine.

CHANGE PLANS? NO, NOT YET… For everyone who has been asking about changing cruise/vacation plans, my response remains “wait and see,” for now. We simply don’t have enough good information to suggest anyone should cancel any plans because of this. There is still a good chance that this weather system may simply mean increased rain chances by the end of next week.

Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great evening!

RZW EXEC: MAJOR RAIN EVENT THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec members, good Tuesday evening! We have a significant rainfall event setting up for the weekend across Alabama and northwest Florida. 4 to 7 inches of rain will be possible. For now, severe weather (tornadoes, damaging wind, hail) remains unlikely. Here is the post we will be posting publicly over the next 15 minutes…

MAJOR RAIN EVENT AHEAD: 5-7” OF RAIN POSSIBLE… Talk about a weather pattern flip! We’ve got a major rain event setting up for the weekend into early next week as Gulf moisture streams in from the south, paving the way for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday through Monday. While this rain is MUCH needed, I am growing a bit concerned about the possibility of flash flooding IF storms train over the same areas this weekend. The good news is this will be a soaking rain, but likely WITHOUT a big risk of convective issues like tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind. Let’s look at details…

WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW… There actually are a few showers and thunderstorms happening right now (as of 7:30PM on Tuesday) near Castleberry, Evergreen, Nymph, Jay Villa, L Pond, and Johnsonville in southern Conecuh County. Another lone storm is noted near Gosport and Claiborne near the Alabama River near the Clarke/Monroe County line near the Alabama River Pulp mill. These storms are slowly drifting northward.

SCATTERED STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY… The big rain happens this weekend, but not before a few scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours of Wednesday and Thursday. These will be diurnal, pop-up storms capable of producing very heavy downpours of rain in localized areas. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be a concern. You know the drill by now: “When thunder roars, go indoors.”

NUMEROUS STORMS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… Deep tropical moisture will surge into our area from the south on Friday, meaning numerous showers and thunderstorms will become likely. 1-2” of rain will be possible Friday, with isolated higher amounts. If you have outdoor events scheduled for Friday or Saturday, I would definitely have an indoor backup ready!

RAIN & STORMS LIKELY INTO SUNDAY… The axis of moisture that parks over our area really won’t be moving much Saturday or Sunday. I expect rain to progressively end on Monday, but not before some areas pick up 5, 6, or maybe even 7 inches of rain near the immediate beaches. We note that NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has parts of the Alabama coastline in their 7” contour zone, meaning it is plausible to have 6-8” of rain near Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Dauphin Island before this rain event ends early next week.

TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NOW UNLIKELY… Some good news to pass along this evening! The National Hurricane Center says that INVEST 91L, the tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche (southern Gulf of Mexico) now only has a 20% chance of developing into a named tropical storm. This is actually the system that will ultimately be responsible for flinging in some of the Gulf moisture from the South this weekend. Again, it won’t be a tropical storm or hurricane when the moisture arrives here.

Let me know if you have any questions. My next public forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday morning. Have a nice Tuesday evening!