POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATE NEXT WEEK… RZW Exec members, good Friday afternoon! It’s been several weeks since we’ve had any significant weather changes to report to you. Our weather pattern has been remarkably consistent with afternoon and evening pop-up thunderstorms, ample heat, and plenty of humidity. This afternoon, we’re observing the first credible signs that a tropical storm may develop close to our local area at the end of next week.
There is still plenty of uncertainty with this, meaning we have more questions than answers at this point. I have not publicly mentioned this possibility just yet, as I want to review incoming data this afternoon and this evening to ensure model consistency and continuity in this idea. I did want you to be the first to know, however, that we have at least some chance of having a more active weather pattern approximately one week from today. Below is rough draft of how the public post will be written, if needed, this evening…
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE “CLOSE TO HOME” NEXT WEEK… There is a small, yet growing, chance that a tropical storm may form in the northern Gulf of Mexico toward the end of next week into the next weekend (July 10-14). While there are still MANY uncertainties, consistent model data continues to support the idea of some tropical mischief in the northern Gulf late next week. These model signals point to increased rain chances late next week for south Alabama and northwest Florida, at bare minimum. Again, we have more questions than answers at this point as to IF or when this tropical storm will form. Let’s talk about what we do know…
MODEL IDEA GAINING TRACTION… The ECMWF (Euro) model started hinting yesterday that a surface area of low pressure may form in the northern Gulf of Mexico at the tail end of a trough by the end of next week. The European model continues to suggest this area of low pressure will develop in the northern Gulf before looping back to the northeast and making landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast. It’s too early to know whether this landfall will be as a designated tropical storm or as a general, “weaker” area of low pressure. The image above is a screen capture of the European model valid at 7PM Friday, July 12, showing the 850mb winds and MSLP (barometric pressure). This view shows a 990mb tropical storm (winds probably in the 40-50mph range, if that model screenshot happened to be correct) centered just south of Pensacola. The American-based Global Forecast System (GFS) has also hinted at this same potential. It is important to note that not all models are on board with this idea, with the Canadian and NAVGEM models not alluding to this potential at all.
INCONSISTENT MODEL DATA EXPECTED… While the overall idea of an area of low pressure seems to be gaining traction with the major global models, it is totally normal to see models “all over the board” at this stage of this process. Models will continue to get a better grasp of the atmospheric setup as we go through the weekend and get into early next week. Data will likely become more consistent, and thus I’ll be able to give more details as we get closer to this potential tropical storm event.
SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN GULF… We note much of the northern Gulf of Mexico has sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 84°. Typically, tropical systems need SSTs of near 80° to form.
BEYOND THAT, UNCERTAINTY… No one, and I mean absolutely no one, knows IF this system will, indeed, materialize into a tropical storm and threaten the United States. Is that a small possibility as of now? Yes, but there’s been low consistency as to where the system will ultimately end up (both on the GFS and Euro). I would suggest everyone from Louisiana eastward to north Florida keep an eye on this system. Obviously, that includes ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. No need for fear, panic, or anxiety as no one knows if this system will develop or where it will end up, however the idea is there for a minimal tropical storm potential in the northern Gulf next week.
WHAT IS CAUSING THIS POTENTIAL… There will be a trough, or a dip in the jet stream, in place across the southeastern U.S. on Wednesday into Thursday (July 10-11). This trough will sag southward into the northern Gulf where a surface area of low pressure will likely develop in the northeastern or north central Gulf of Mexico likely on Friday into Saturday (a week from today). Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are in the 84-87 degree range in this part of the Gulf, meaning there is plenty of fuel in place for a potential tropical storm. SSTs are only one factor, though. We note that upper level atmospheric winds/shear looks favorable for the development of a tropical storm.
SOCIAL MEDIA CRAZINESS AHEAD… Long-time viewers and readers know that it drives me crazy to see outlandish, inaccurate, wild weather model images circulating on social media. I suspect you’ll see crazy clickbait images in the days ahead regarding this system. The truth is, we don’t have a firm grip just yet of anything concrete. What we know at this point is there is a growing consensus that a tropical storm could form/move across the northern quadrant of the Gulf of Mexico late next week. Please join me in not sharing bad info… That just feeds the trolls and hype machine.
CHANGE PLANS? NO, NOT YET… For everyone who has been asking about changing cruise/vacation plans, my response remains “wait and see,” for now. We simply don’t have enough good information to suggest anyone should cancel any plans because of this. There is still a good chance that this weather system may simply mean increased rain chances by the end of next week.
Let me know if you have specific questions. Have a great evening!