RZW EXEC EVENING UPDATE… RZW Exec members, good Friday evening! Below you’ll see the latest info on a potential tropical storm that may develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. The big headline for our region is that NO local impacts are expected. We will begin pushing this message publicly in the next hour. As always, let me know if you have any questions.

20-30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN SOUTHERN GULF… We are within hours of the official start of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season kicking off. Right on time, an area of disturbed weather now has a low chance of developing into a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Let me very clear in saying this system likely will never come close to south Alabama or northwest Florida. Little to no local direct impacts are expected at this time. Let’s look at the headlines about this system…

MOVEMENT TOWARD INLAND MEXICO… Again, we’re not expecting any direct local impacts from this system (regardless of development) in Alabama or northwest Florida. Whether development happens or not, this will be a big time rain event for areas in Mexico just south of Texas.

POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN BAY OF CAMPECHE… The National Hurricane Center says there is now a 20 to 30 percent chance of a tropical storm developing in the southern tier of the Gulf of Mexico near the coastline of the nation of Mexico over the next 2 to 5 days. This is the area of the Gulf of Mexico known as the Bay of Campeche. It is not uncommon to see early season tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf. Right now, the area of low pressure is situated on the Yucatan Peninsula, slowly moving to the west. The broad center of the area of low pressure will emerge over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche likely on Sunday. To get a tropical storm, two main things would need to happen. 1) There would need to be consistent bursts of convection or thunderstorms. 2) A low-level center of circulation would need to form. Many times with these very early season tropical disturbances, you’ll get plenty of convection with no low-level center, thus no designation as a tropical storm. At the moment, that is the MOST likely scenario.

DOES THIS MEAN ACTIVE SEASON? NOT NECESSARILY… Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that just because we’re seeing activity this early in the season that this will be a hyperactive hurricane season. Could we have an active season? Yes. Is it likely at this point? No. In fact, the recent NOAA hurricane season outlook calls for a “near normal” Atlantic hurricane season, meaning 10-12 tropical storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. I’m sure the fear mongers will be out in full force in the days ahead preaching fake major hurricane stories set to impact the United States. Again, don’t buy into it. Let’s take it day by day and we’ll bring you the facts and the very latest information.

UPCOMING TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES… The “A” tropical cyclone name has already been used. Subtropical Storm Andrea was a weak, brief system southwest of Bermuda that happened a few weeks ago. Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, and Gabrielle are the upcoming names on the 2019 naming list. The tropical cyclone naming lists are reused every six years, excluding names that are permanently retired (like Florence and Michael last year).

ISOLATED STORM THIS EVENING; MOST ARE DRY… Other than a lone, weakening shower near Walnut Hill and Barrineau Park, the rest of south Alabama and northwest Florida remains dry as of 7:30PM. A few pop up storms will be possible on Saturday in the afternoon hours, but I expect vast majority of us to remain dry and hot. Temperatures will again peak in the mid-90s.

NEXT UPDATE… My next public update on this tropical system will be posted by 7:15AM on Saturday morning. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great evening!

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday evening! We have a lower-end (compared to the last two rounds we had in the last two weeks) severe weather risk setting up for the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday, April 25 (tomorrow) across the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Our public messaging for this event has already started. A complex of storms will approach our region from the west during the late afternoon and early evening hours of Thursday. These storms may be on the strong side, capable of becoming severe and producing isolated, brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. As always, please let me know if there is anything I can do to assist you in your weather-related decision support for your business or organization.

NEW RISK LEVELS GRAPHIC… Starting with this severe weather event, we are debuting our exclusive new “severe weather risk levels” graphic to help each of you be better informed about the risk levels of specific hazard types. We will continue to revise this graphic/concept, based on your feedback and your needs, going forward. You can see in the event setting up for Thursday evening, damaging wind gusts will likely be our number one concern with isolated tornadoes also being possible. While the “power outages” and “lightning” categories do not technically qualify as “severe weather,” we know that those are two things that a LOT of people care about when we have active weather moving through.

LEVEL 2 RISK: WHO IS INVOLVED… Vast majority of the local area is included in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. If you’re in any of the following communities or surrounding areas, you’re included: Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, Brewton, Monroeville, Grove Hill, Silas, Toxey, Chatom, Millry, Leroy, Jackson, Fruitdale, Vinegar Bend, Wagerville, McIntosh, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Fairhope, Bay Minette, Stockton, Stapleton, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Molino, Gonzalez, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Bratt, Jay, Berrydale, Munson, Crestview, Milton, Navarre, Niceville, Fort Walton Beach, Laurel Hill, Florala, Pleasant Home, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, and Brooklyn.

LOWER-END, LEVEL 1 RISK… We note that the northeastern swath of our area remains involved in the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone. This includes areas in/near Thomasville, Beatrice, Greenville, Georgiana, Oaky Streak, Halso Mill, McKenzie, Red Level, River Falls, Andalusia, Heath, Straughn, Rose Hill, and Opp.

Much of west-central Alabama and southeast Alabama are also now involved in the Level 1 risk zone, including Demopolis, Selma, Camden, Butler, Livingston, Troy, Elba, Enterprise, Dothan, Geneva, Samson, Luverne, Daleville, and Abbeville.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be the two main concerns as storms move by Thursday afternoon, evening, and into the very early morning hours of Friday. Rain amounts should add up to 1-2” in total for most spots across our region, thus likely mitigating the flash flooding risk.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… This has changed a bit since this morning. 2PM Thursday to 2AM Friday is the 12 hour window in which severe weather may happen across our region. 5PM to 11PM seems to be the 6 hour window with the greatest potential when tornadoes may happen. Have a way to get the warnings on Thursday!

SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday afternoon. We have a significant round of severe weather setting up for the evening hours of Thursday into the very early morning hours of Friday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded ALL of our local area into their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. SPC notes that further outlook upgrades are possible over the next 24 hours as this event draws closer.

TORNADO RISK INFO… Please be sure to see my latest long-form public update (published here in the RedZone Weather app as of 12:45PM and copied into this post below) detailing the specifics. This is absolutely an event that could “mean business.” There is a chance of strong tornadoes that could produce considerable damage. The tornado risk looks to be maxed out across eastern Louisiana and southeast Mississippi, meaning west Alabama is at greatest risk in our local area.

DECISION SUPPORT… It’s a blessing for school superintendents reading this that the core of this severe weather event is happening during non-school hours. This will also be an event that happens after regular business hours. IF you, your organization, or your business need decision support information, please don’t hesitate to text or call me this afternoon/evening. (251) 363-8833 is my cell number.

LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL LOCAL AREAS… Tornadoes will be likely Thursday evening into early Friday morning with a few strong tornadoes being possible. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include much of Alabama, southern Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Thursday. Multiple tornadoes are likely, a few strong tornadoes will be possible, damaging wind gusts are likely, and large hail is possible. The higher risk zone remains in place across nearly all of our local area as of the 1PM update. As of 1PM, SPC has expanded the Level 3 risk to include much of southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle region.

LEVEL 3 RISK ZONE FOR THURSDAY… ALL of our local area is now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone on Thursday, including the following areas: Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lenox, Repton, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Toxey, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, Leroy, Fruitdale, Calvert, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Mobile, Axis, Prichard, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Saraland, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Stockton, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Molino, Century, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Jay, Berrydale, Milton, Navarre, Allentown, Chumuckla, Red Level, Greenville, Georgiana, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Luverne, Destin, Crestview, and Fort Walton Beach. Areas just to our north are also included in this Level 3 risk zone: Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Clanton, Selma, Demopolis, Jasper, Hamilton, Prattville, Livingston, Camden, Hayneville, and Butler.

NO ISSUES ON THURSDAY MORNING… Besides some patchy areas of dense fog, no major weather issues are expected before the lunch hour on Thursday. Cloud coverage will continue to increase.

SHOWERS & STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON… Severe weather issues are likely to be in progress to our west on Thursday afternoon. SPC maintains a Level 3 risk zone for much of the southern half of Mississippi and eastern Louisiana where there is a chance of a few strong tornadoes happening. We could have a few spotty showers and storms around our region during the afternoon hours of Thursday. These showers and storms will likely be well under severe limits. We’ll call it a 30% chance of rain during the afternoon hours with rain chances rising after 8PM as the line of storms moves in late Thursday.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… The severe weather risk window will be from 6PM Thursday to 3AM on Friday, with the core risk being from 9PM to 1AM. It looks like we will be up late monitoring storms, meaning we all will need a way to get warnings before we go to sleep!

SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS THURSDAY EVENING… The latest model indications point to a severe line of thunderstorms moving through Thursday evening into Friday morning with the risk of a few supercell storms firing up out ahead of the main line. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be concerns as this batch of storms moves by. If supercells can become more discrete and isolated, we will have to adjust the tornado risk even higher than what it is right now. Be sure to check back with me later this evening and Thursday morning for the latest information!

Let me know if you have specific questions. My next detailed forecast update will be available later this evening with a Medium-Level Alert sent for users of our RedZone Weather app. See you then!

SPECIAL OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO LEVEL 3… RZW Exec members, I am in the process of writing a detailed post about this right now. I wanted to let you know first, however, that the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of west Alabama into their Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for Thursday into early Friday morning. SPC notes that strong tornadoes may be possible across parts of eastern Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi, and far western Alabama.

Standby – I am about to send one of our Medium-Level Alerts about this.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES BY THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Monday evening! We are looking ahead to our next storm system that will move across Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday. For now, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included all of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) standard slight risk area. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be possible as an eastward-advancing line of storms moves by. These are some of the details we will be discussing publicly over the next 24 hours… Please let me know if you have questions or need decision support as this event draws closer.

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN P.M. HOURS ON THURSDAY… While Thursday morning will feature increasing wind from the south as our area enters the humid, unstable warm sector out ahead of the advancing cold front, the severe weather issues are MOST likely to happen in the afternoon and evening hours of Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center maintains much of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone, meaning scattered instances of severe weather will be possible. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main concerns.

TIMING OF THE STORMS ON THURSDAY… 2PM to 11PM seems to be the best estimate of a “severe weather timing” window at the moment, although we note that could change as more model data comes in over the next 48 hours. We all will need a way to get urgent tornado warnings on Thursday, particularly after the lunch hour. The good news is the latest trends suggest this will be a daytime/evening event and NOT an overnight event unlike our last round of severe weather that happened on Sunday.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS THURSDAY… While early model indications point to a system that will produce a squall line of strong to severe storms (QLCS – quasi-linear convective system as it’s known in the meteorology world), it’s too early to know whether supercell thunderstorms will be involved out ahead of the main line. Regardless, isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will clearly be the two main hazards across our region as this quick hitting system moves by.