TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY A.M. ACROSS SOUTH AL & NW FL… The overall confidence in our forecast continues to increase: Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and damaging gusts of wind will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Sunday morning. The system will advance from west to east with impacts potentially starting in parts of west Alabama as early as 11PM Saturday night. The system should clear out to our east by 2PM at the absolute latest. While you probably have seen alarmist-type posts suggesting the potential for multiple long-track, significant tornadoes across parts of Alabama, I am not at all ready to suggest that as a possibility this evening. The forecast remains good and on target in that there will be a potential for tornadoes, but the data just doesn’t suggest a widespread violent tornado risk just yet. Could that change? Yes, and you definitely need to check back with me on Saturday morning for the very latest. If a tornado affects YOU, it’s a big deal. It only takes one, which is why we are on guard this weekend. Let’s talk about a few details…

SLIGHTLY GREATER TORNADO & DAMAGING WIND RISK INLAND… Tornadoes are possible areawide on Sunday morning, but the core risk seems to be shaping up across our inland counties. If you’re in Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, or Washington counties (or points north into central Alabama), you have a slightly higher tornado risk as this line of severe storms moves by on Sunday. That statement does NOT mean that tornadoes won’t happen elsewhere/closer to the coast, but the likelihood of a tornado is greater for inland areas. These counties include places like Thomasville, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Jackson, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Evergreen, Lyeffion, Repton, Greenville, Georgiana, and Chapman. Places just to the north of these areas like Selma, Camden, Pine Hill, Sweet Water, Butler, Pennington, Linden, Livingston, Eutaw, Marion, Tuscaloosa, Northport, and Centreville also have an enhanced risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

NEW: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… This has changed a bit since our midday update. The system seems to be moving a bit faster, based on the latest model data. We have bumped up our 12 hour window from 2AM Sunday to 2PM, with the core risk being 5AM to 1PM. We note storms could happen before or after this timeframe, but that is the MOST likely window. Please keep in mind that is the “severe weather timing” and not RAIN timing. Rain is likely intermittently long before that timeframe. Scattered showers and storms under severe limits are possible on Saturday during the daytime and evening hours. The severe weather risk will ramp up after 10PM.

WE ALL NEED MULTIPLE WAYS TO GET TORNADO WARNINGS… I cannot stress this enough: You need to have multiple ways to be able to receive tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings *before* you go to sleep Saturday night. Nocturnal tornadoes are statistically quite deadly. NOAA Weather Radio is a great choice. There are good smartphone apps available designed to alert you in dangerous weather situations. Make sure you have Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) turned ON for each of your smartphones. Our free RedZone Weather app is a great supplement to all these things. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to download the free app. Once you have it downloaded, be sure to go into the Alerts tab and set up the specific alerts you want to receive straight from me.

HEADED TO A-DAY IN AUBURN OR TUSCALOOSA? READ THIS… Many folks from our area are headed north this weekend to Auburn and Tuscaloosa for A-Day festivities. The detailed forecast for each game is below. While there could be showers and thunderstorms around, the severe weather issues should hold off until after 7PM on Saturday. If you’re driving southbound toward south Alabama or northwest Florida from Auburn or Tuscaloosa on Saturday evening, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest severe weather info. Alabama kicks off the A-Day spring game at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa at 1PM CDT. Kickoff temperatures will be around 76° with a 50-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms around. Have a way to check the radar if you’re headed to Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Rain chances have been bumped up slightly as it looks like more moisture will be in place to support a few showers and storms. Auburn will begin the A-Day spring game at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn at 3PM CDT. Mostly cloudy skies are likely with kickoff temperatures around 80°. There is only a 20% chance of rain.

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONFUSION… The Storm Prediction Center is the national agency charged with issuing convective outlooks. These are the outlooks you see every, single day in my products. Our local National Weather Service forecast office in Mobile, AL does a great job of showing graphics that are consistent with SPC. The National Weather Service local office in Birmingham (and Mobile as of this afternoon) has recently started issuing their own “risk graphics.” While SPC maintains only east Alabama in the Level 3 zone, the local NWS offices in Mobile and Birmingham have opted to do their own thing and put their parts of their respective coverage areas in a Level 3/orange risk area. It is a HIGHLY confusing situation and I’ve had a plethora of private messages about it all day. This (ridiculously confusing) situation, along with several others that have happened this spring, have prompted me to reevaluate our current system. We will do that reevaluation this summer after the current severe weather season winds down. When two agencies under NOAA (NWS & SPC) can’t agree/be consistent with their messaging, that is a significant problem that warrants a significant solution on our part. Let me know if you have any thoughts! We need to “be better” as a weather enterprise.

BE “WEATHER AWARE” THIS WEEKEND… Don’t let your guard down this weekend until after our severe weather risk passes on Sunday. We all need to have away to get the urgent weather warnings, especially Sunday morning when the main risk happens. I’ll have updates as needed this weekend in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of app) and then read the alert descriptions so you can pick the ones you want to receive. All of our alerts are currently handcrafted by me. Unlike other sources, we won’t send you a push notification unless there is something you need to know.

NEXT UPDATE… My next update here on Facebook will be posted by 7AM on Saturday morning with the very latest information. Until then, be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app or at redzoneweather.com for more thoughts.

RZW Exec partners, model data has been quite consistent in suggesting that Alabama and northwest Florida may deal with a potentially significant round of severe weather during the upcoming weekend. While it is a bit unusual to discuss an event in detail 5 days out, I believe, based on the data, that it is warranted at this point. I won’t be “sounding the alarm” publicly just yet, but if model trends continue, we will have to ramp our messaging up considerably as there could be a chance of significant tornadoes. It is too early to say publicly IF significant tornadoes will happen, where they will happen, and when they will happen. What you need to know at this point is that there is a chance of tornadoes happening, potentially a few significant ones. As always, please let me know if you have any questions. I’ll have further RZW Exec updates later in the week to keep you posted. Below is the post I will be issuing publicly in the next few hours…

SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… Tornadoes and all modes of severe weather will be possible this weekend across parts of the Deep South. The Storm Prediction Center has included parts of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Saturday and Sunday with further forecast refinements likely over the next few days. While it is too early to know specific details, the big takeaway as of now is that we all need to be aware of the potential for severe weather this weekend when tornadoes may become possible. There is quite a bit of information that is still uncertain, but let’s discuss what we do know as of now…

RISK SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY… We don’t know exactly what types of storms will happen on Saturday. We could have supercell thunderstorms, a QLCS/squall line, or perhaps both. Regardless, the greatest threat of severe weather will likely set up across eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi on Saturday. Late Saturday into Palm Sunday is when the tornado risk will likely be greatest across Alabama, northwest Florida, eastern Mississippi, and western Georgia.

CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER SETUP… There will be a shortwave trough and associated cold front positioned to our west on Saturday. A warm front will likely lift northward throughout the day Saturday, meaning much of our region should be involved in the warm sector where severe thunderstorms may happen. In addition to a favorable low-level jet (winds at about 5,000 feet off the ground at 40-50 knots), there will be plenty of helicity (changing of the winds with height) and instability/CAPE to fuel potential storms. Most of the “ingredients” seem to be in place to support exactly what one would expect in mid-April across the Deep South: The potential for tornadoes and severe weather. This is nothing unusual or out of the ordinary. March and April are our primary severe weather season.

*NOW* IS THE TIME TO GET PREPARED… It is so critical to have a plan of action to know what you would do and where you would go if a tornado warning is issued for your area. Do you have multiple reliable ways to receive urgent weather warnings? Facebook is not a good way to receive warnings, as the platform will often show you posts from days ago but not necessarily posts that are posted immediately. One way for you to get the warnings in south Alabama and northwest Florida is in our free RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of the app) and turn ON all of the alerts you want to receive in the Alert Settings area.

CHECK BACK WITH ME FOR UPDATES… This is an evolving severe weather situation that will require further forecast updates. Be sure to check back with me over the next few days as we continue to get more details based on the latest data. No need to panic or stress, but there is a need to be aware of the situation and have a “severe weather action plan.”

My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday. Let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a great evening!

STRONG STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good evening! We’ve got an active weather pattern ahead for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. My main focus is now on the system that will move by late Sunday into Monday when our next cold front moves by. That is when our severe weather risk will ramp up. Before we get there, we’ve got a few thunderstorms happening right now with more on the way for Saturday.

SATURDAY STORMS… Below is the latest convective outlook for Saturday. You can see the greater severe weather risk zone (Levels 2 and 3) will happen well to our west across parts of Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has much of Alabama included in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone due to thunderstorms that could produce hail (up to the size of quarters) and gusty winds. The tornado risk for Saturday for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida remains near zero.

SUNDAY SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST… Sunday afternoon and evening is when our local area will need to begin to monitor local radar trends. SPC has a large swath of the southern U.S. involved in their Level 2 risk. They note that further outlook refinements are likely. This means we shouldn’t be shocked if a Level 3 or even Level 4 will be needed for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas in the next few outlooks valid for Sunday. The weather system responsible for this risk zone could produce tornadoes (perhaps some strong ones), large hail, and damaging winds across parts of MS, LA, and AR on Sunday. We will need to monitor trends Sunday evening to see just how far the severe storms can push to the east. For now, SPC has western parts of Alabama involved in their Level 2 risk zone.

I’ll keep you posted about this developing situation over the next 48 hours.

RAIN & STORMS LIKELY THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good evening! We’re looking ahead to tomorrow (Thursday) when we could have a few strong storms around. The Storm Prediction Center has the entire local area and much of west-central Alabama included in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone valid for Thursday. This means that isolated instances of gusty winds and hail will be possible in any of the storms that can ramp up briefly to a stronger level. The tornado risk remains LOW, but not quite zero.

LEVEL 1 RISK: WHO IS INVOLVED… ALL parts of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. Mobile, Pensacola, Daphne, Fairhope, Destin, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Grove Hill, Thomasville, Jackson, Leroy, Chatom, Greenville, Georgiana, Andalusia, Opp, and Florala are all included. We note that several areas in central and north Alabama are also included in this low-end risk zone: Birmingham, Montgomery, Selma, Demopolis, Tuscaloosa, Jasper, Fayette, Hamilton, Camden, Hayneville, Butler, Livingston, and surrounding areas.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Damaging straight line wind gusts and hail will be the main concerns in any storms that can become strong on Thursday. Flash flooding could also happen if storms can train over the same areas. The severe weather risk (and tornado risk) will clearly be greatest across much of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas, where the Level 2, slightly higher risk zone is in place.

BIG TAKEAWAYS… I’m not expecting major issues on Thursday, but there could be a few strong storms around. As always, if we happen to have any tornado warnings, I’ll be providing uninterrupted video coverage across our platforms. Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a nice Wednesday evening!

LOW-END RISK THIS EVENING FOR STRONG STORMS… RZW Exec partners, the Storm Prediction Center continues to outline much of our area in their Levels 1 and 2 risk zones to potentially see a few stronger storms later today. As of late morning, we have a batch of decaying showers and storms moving through parts of Monroe, Wilcox, and northern Baldwin counties in southwest Alabama. These showers and storms developed over southeast Mississippi early this morning and have moved into the western half of our region in the last few hours. I expect these showers to continue to weaken over the next 1-2 hours and be dissipated by 2PM. That should allow for more atmospheric heating this afternoon that could contribute to a few stronger storms later this evening. Here is a quick check of the local radar as of 11:22AM.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR WIND & HAIL… Normally when any part of our local area has a Level 2 risk, I’m a bit more aggressive in our messaging since there usually is at least some type of tornado risk. This is clearly a situation where the main risks later today will be potentially damaging wind gusts and hail in the stronger thunderstorms that happen. The wind flow in the atmosphere today is unidirectional, meaning there is not much shear in place to cause tornadogenesis. The tornado risk is not zero, but it remains very low. Check out the latest convective outlook below.

SLIGHTLY GREATER RISK INLAND… Portions of Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Wilcox, Choctaw, and Crenshaw counties remain involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone as defined by the Storm Prediction Center. If we happen to have stronger storms this evening, they are most likely to occur in those areas. We note the remainder of our region remains involved in the lower-end, Level 1 marginal risk. “Marginal risk” means that while an isolated strong or severe storm may happen, the atmosphere is only marginally favorable for stronger storms.

WHAT TO EXPECT… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be present later this afternoon into this evening. The core timeframe for stronger storms is from 4PM to 10PM. There is a chance that some spots across our region won’t have *any* rain with this event. Rain and storms will kick out to the east by 3AM on Tuesday. Cooler, drier air will filter into our region overnight.

CONTINUING COVERAGE… As always, if we happen to have any tornado warnings locally today (odds are probably in the 0-10% chance range of a warning happening), be sure to join me for our uninterrupted live coverage. I’ll have plenty of updates this afternoon in the public-facing area of the RedZone Weather app and on redzoneweather.com. Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Thanks for being one of our valued partners. It truly is an honor for me to be able to bring you weather information everyday AND highlight your brand in our coverage. Have a great Monday!