LOW-END RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS… RZW Exec partners, good afternoon! The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a small zone of their low-end, marginal risk (Level 1 out of 5) valid for this afternoon and this evening. Thunderstorms are bubbling up right now just to our north across Marengo and Choctaw counties. These storms will move southeast and gain strength over the next few hours. The tornado risk today remains at/near zero. The concern (and the reason why SPC has introduced this risk so late) is that a few of these storms may ramp up to produce brief instances of gusty/damaging winds in isolated areas. The same type risk was in place yesterday (Sunday) and we saw no damage. Again, this low-end, very marginal risk. Storms will produce quite a bit of heavy rain and lightning where they do happen.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Below is a still image of the regional radar view as of Noon…

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SEVERE WEATHER RISK LESSENS… RZW Exec partners, good afternoon! The severe weather risk for south Alabama and northwest Florida has lessened considerably for this weekend. The better atmospheric dynamics will happen across north Mississippi. That is where a few tornadoes will be most likely to happen Saturday afternoon and evening. NW Mississippi is where the Storm Prediction Center has the Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone in place.

Locally, across the southern half of Alabama and northwest Florida, we may have a few thunderstorms but severe weather appears to be “off the table.” If we have any changes, I’ll let you know.

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SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec members, confidence continues to increase that the Deep South will have another round of severe weather on Saturday into Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has included nearly all of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone valid for the afternoon and evening hours of Saturday, meaning isolated severe storms will be possible. We’re still 3 to 4 days out from this potential severe weather event, so details can and will change. As of now, it looks like the greater dynamics will set up just to our north across the northern parts of Mississippi and northwest Alabama.

SATURDAY STORMS… We will initially be monitoring areas to our northwest across Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and western Tennessee for the development of stronger storms early in the day on Saturday. The threat of severe weather will shift into south Alabama and northwest Florida likely in the afternoon and evening hours of Saturday and last until Sunday morning. All modes of severe weather will be concerns, including a few tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, hail, and flash flooding.

STORM PLACEMENT – LOCAL AREA… The greatest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms in our local area will likely happen across the northwestern counties (Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, Wilcox, and Monroe counties in west Alabama). Similar to last weekend’s severe weather risk, we ALL have at least some risk of severe weather going into this weekend, however. This means that all of us should have a way to receive urgent weather warnings.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Rain showers may be happening as early as Saturday morning. The severe weather risk will gradually ramp up throughout the afternoon. The core risk of severe weather for south Alabama and northwest Florida will likely be from 6PM Saturday to 6AM Sunday, although the risk may linger later into Sunday morning as the cold front may start moving a bit slower to the east. We note that the Storm Prediction Center has our area included in their Day 4 (Sunday – image below) outlook too for the Level 2 slight risk. Because of the way the SPC convective outlooks are issued (valid for a 24 hour period from 6AM to 6AM), this suggests potentially a lingering risk into Sunday morning. There will likely be some lingering rain showers into late Sunday morning/early afternoon after the passage of the strong/severe storms.

We’ve already started our public messaging for this potential severe weather setup. I’ll have more updates in the days ahead. Let me know if you have specific decision support needs regarding this severe weather situation. Have a wonderful Wednesday evening!

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SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… RZW Exec partners, good evening! We have a Level 2 (out of 5) risk of strong to severe thunderstorms across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Sunday afternoon and evening. The most likely scenario Sunday is that we will have a southeastward-advancing squall line/QLCS moving across our area in the evening hours that could produce damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes.

RISK PLACEMENT… Basically the entire southern half of Alabama is included in the standard, slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk zone, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. All of northwest Florida is included in the same risk zone as well. Our entire local primary coverage area is included in this zone. Brewton, Atmore, Thomasville, Jay, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Andalusia, Pensacola, Destin, Grove Hill, Chatom, and all local surrounding communities are included.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the two main concerns in the stronger storms. Heavy downpours of rain are expected. Small hail is also possible.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… Model consensus continues to grow in that the greatest chance of strong to severe thunderstorms across our local area will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. 2PM to 10PM is the eight hour window when severe weather is most likely. Storms are much more likely earlier in the morning and early afternoon across central Alabama.

Below is a screenshot of the 3 kilometer North American Model (NAM) projected radar at 6PM on Sunday showing the squall line of storms moving through…

NEXT UPDATE… I’ll have another RZW Exec update for you with any significant changes that happen tomorrow (Saturday) by 5PM. Let me know if you have any specific questions!

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ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… RZW Exec members, good afternoon! There is an increasing risk of severe weather setting up on Sunday across parts of the Deep South. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of north and west Alabama, nearly all of Mississippi, parts of southwest Arkansas and northeast Louisiana in their standard, Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone. This means that scattered severe storms will be possible, including isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms.

RISK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH… Compared to the severe weather event last weekend that caused multiple tornadoes in north Alabama and north Mississippi, the risk zone is farther to the south this time. This means that the western part of our local area is included in the slightly higher risk zone. At the moment, much of Clarke, Monroe, and Washington counties are included in the Level 2 risk.

Basically, communities along and north of a line from Citronelle to Monroeville to Montgomery to Lanett are included in the Level 2 risk. Keep in mind, this risk zone will likely evolve/change somewhat over the next 48 hours as we get closer to the event and details become more clear.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the two main concerns in the stronger storms. Looking at the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), it seems like flash flooding impacts will be limited unless we get storms training over the same areas which seems unlikely as of now.

STORM TIMING… Perhaps the most uncertainty with this forecast is in the timing. The weather models have been divergent on this as of late, meaning solutions seem to be getting more uncertain rather than becoming more clear. For now, we will be begin advertising the greatest risk of severe weather being in the afternoon and evening hours of Sunday across south Alabama and northwest Florida.

NEXT UPDATE… Since there is a growing potential for a few isolated tornadoes on the western side of our local area, I’ll have another RZW Exec update for you issued by 5PM on Friday. Let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a wonderful Thursday evening!

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