MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD… RZW Exec partners, good Monday afternoon! We’ve got an active weather pattern upcoming over the next 7-9 days with multiple rounds of strong storms being possible. There is at least some chance of rain each day in the next 7 days, with Wednesday and Thursday likely being the wettest days. Our friends in north Alabama will be dealing with much more (10+ inches, in some cases) rain than we will in south Alabama and northwest Florida (1-3″ of rain in total locally). Flooding will be possible across the northern half of the state, but I am not expecting significant flooding issues for the southern half of Alabama or northwest Florida. Here is the 7 Day Forecast highlighting our multiple rounds of storms ahead…

LEVEL 1 RISK ZONE FOR WEST ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of Washington and Choctaw counties in west Alabama in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Wednesday. Vast majority of our local area remains in the non-severe, “general thunderstorm zone.” The greatest combination of “atmospheric ingredients” will come together across southeast Mississippi where a line of strong storms will likely form. This linear storm threat will move eastward in the late morning hours of Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern, with the tornado risk being very low, but not entirely zero. If any severe weather happens locally on Wednesday, it will almost certainly occur in Mobile, Choctaw, Washington, Marengo, or Clarke counties. Most of us should have an uneventful rain on Wednesday.

STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND… Beyond Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a (fairly uncommon) Level 2 risk five days out valid on Saturday for parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, and western stretches of Mississippi. SPC notes that tornadoes will be possible on Saturday in those areas. The question mark for our local area is IF that storm system can hold together and move eastward into our area on Sunday. Still plenty of uncertainty in the forecast and it’s simply too early to know whether severe storms could be an issue for our region on Sunday, but that is a possibility. We will have further RZW Exec updates on this as necessary.

CONTINUING COVERAGE… Please continue to monitor our public-facing updates that will continue here in the RedZone Weather app and across social media. If we have a more specific weather threat that materializes, I’ll be sure to bring you an update here in RZW Exec. Please let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a great week!

SNOW ACROSS WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY

RZW Exec partners, good Monday evening! Below is the latest forecast discussion that we will be giving to the general public in a special live video that I’ll be doing at 8PM CST. The video will air on Facebook Live and in Live Video tab of the RedZone Weather app. The forecast remains on target: West Alabama will likely have some minor (0.25″ to 1″ of snow accumulation) on Tuesday morning. Most of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida will have a cold rain with no snow impacts. North and central Alabama are under a Winter Storm Warning. 1-3″ of snow will be possible across much of those areas. Several of you have reached out today regarding decision support. I certainly appreciate that! Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

SPECIAL LIVE UPDATE: SNOW POSSIBLE INLAND, RAIN FOR THE COAST… The forecast for Tuesday has remained consistent over the last 48 hours: Minor snow accumulation will be possible across northern parts of our local area, specifically in northern Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Butler, and Monroe counties. The rest of us farther south of these areas will likely have a few flurries mixed in with the rain, but no accumulation. Higher snow amounts are expected to our north in central and northern Alabama.

RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT… Scattered rain showers will become possible after midnight into the early morning hours of Tuesday. These showers will spread eastward across the south Alabama and northwest Florida. Meanwhile, in central Alabama, there will be snow happening from midnight to 6AM. Areas near Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, and Gadsden are expected to have 1-2” of accumulating snow during this timeframe.

CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING… Rain will begin to change from rain to snow over west Alabama in Choctaw, Washington, Clarke, and Marengo counties between 4AM and 7AM. Snow will last 2-3 hours in most spots. The back edge of the precipitation will quickly move east throughout the morning hours of Tuesday.

GREATEST CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER SUNRISE… The change line from rain to snow will continue to move east throughout the morning hours of Tuesday. Most of the northern fringe of our area (Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Butler counties and points north) will have the greatest chance of snow between 6AM and 11AM on Tuesday morning. After the lunch hour, rain and snow will likely be out of our area to the east. This is good news as there will likely be a longer stretch of drying potential for local roadways than we initially thought.

POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS… Accumulation of snow is most likely to happen in our local area in the northern parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Butler, and Monroe counties. Places near Thomasville, Coffeeville, Campbell, Millry, Frankville, Silas, Toxey, Butler, Pennington, Needham, Gilbertown, Vredenburgh, Beatrice, Forest Home, Pine Apple, Camden, Pine Hill, and Greenville will likely have 0.25” to 1” of accumulating snow by Noon on Tuesday. Areas to the south of these areas will MOST likely have no accumulation with just a mix of rain and snow and no notable accumulation. As I often caution, there will be some surprises along the way with some spots picking up more snow than expected and some will pick up less.

BLACK ICE POTENTIAL… Be sure to see the graphic in the video about this. The greatest potential for black ice and ice issues on local roadways will be in west Alabama where the greatest snow accumulation happens. The main concern for much of Washington, Clarke, Monroe, and Butler counties will be icing that occurs on elevated surfaces like bridges. There will be some concern for this during Tuesday morning, but the main concern will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when temperatures are expected to be in the low- to mid-20s across our region. That is just a hair above the hard freeze criteria (20° or less). Take it easy if you have to be out and about on Tuesday into Wednesday. We will know more about the ice issues once we start seeing radar trends in the morning.

COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUESDAY P.M. INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING… Very cold Arctic air will surge into our region during the daytime hours of Tuesday behind the passing cold front. Overnight lows on Wednesday morning will be in the low- to mid-20s. I can’t rule out a few rural spots across the northern flank of our region being around 18-19° at daybreak Wednesday.

SEND IN YOUR PICS… It is SO helpful to have “ground truth” photos from your location! Don’t forget that you can send in your weather pictures in the RedZone Weather app (Share tab is in in the bottom tab bar in the middle area). You can also send them in on Facebook or Twitter. If you’re in an area that is forecast to have snow on Tuesday, please send in your snow/weather photos!

NEXT VIDEO… My next video update will be posted Tuesday morning when the snow/rain event is happening. Have a good Monday evening!

DETAILED SNOW PROJECTION BELOW… RZW Exec partners, I hope you’re having a nice end to your weekend. Below you will find a highly detailed projection of the snow potential setting up for Tuesday. We will share much of this information publicly in the next few hours. This is very specific, but if you need more information and/or guidance related to decision support needs for your school, organization, or business, please don’t hesitate to let me know.

HIGHLY DETAILED COUNTY-BY-COUNTY SNOW PROJECTION… Snow to the north and rain to the south. That’s the one liner summary of how Tuesday’s winter weather event will shape up. The greatest chance of experiencing snow will happen 6AM to Noon on Tuesday along the back edge of a mass of precipitation that will move across our area from west to east. Some spots will see no accumulation, whiles areas on the northern side of our region COULD end up with over 1” of snow in isolated spots. The bigger snow amounts will happen across northern and central parts of Alabama where 2-4” of snow can’t be ruled out.

CHOCTAW, WILCOX, NORTHERN CLARKE, NORTHERN WASHINGTON, NORTHERN MONROE, NORTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES… These will be the communities that will likely pick up between 0.25” and 1” of snow in total. There could be isolated higher amounts up to 2” of snow, but I expect that to be the anomaly locally with the greater snow amounts clearly happening to our north. Communities like Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Campbell, Tallahatta Springs, Sweet Water, Dixons Mills, Pine Hill, Camden, Pine Apple, Greenville, Forest Home, Awin, McWilliams, Beatrice, Franklin, Vredenburgh, Nanafalia, Silas, Toxey, Butler, Gilbertown, Lisman, Pennington, Millry, and Cullomburg are included in this zone. The greatest chance of accumulating snow in these zones will happen from 6AM to Noon on Tuesday with the snow/precipitation ending from west to east.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF WASHINGTON, CLARKE, MONROE, BUTLER, AND NORTHERN CONECUH COUNTIES… 0.1” to 0.5” of accumulating snow is expected in total in these areas. Could there be a few surprises? Yes, and some areas may pick up more than the expected amount. On the contrary of that, some spots in this zone may have no accumulation. Greater snow chances will happen well to the north. The following places are included in this zone: Chatom, Leroy, Wagerville, Fruitdale, Jackson, Gainestown, Perdue Hill, Monroeville, Frisco City, Repton, Evergreen, Owassa, Lyeffion, Bowles, Midway, Starlington, Georgiana, McKenzie, Oaky Streak, Luverne, and Troy.

COVINGTON, ESCAMBIA (AL), MOBILE, BALDWIN, ESCAMBIA (FL), SANTA ROSA, OKALOOSA COUNTIES… If you’re a “snow lover” and you live in one of these counties, unfortunately “the odds are not in your favor” when it comes to this snow potential. While snow flurries are possible, accumulating snow is much less likely. I caution though, there could be a few isolated spots that have a dusting of snow before this is all over, although that will be the anomaly and not the trend. Places in this zone include: Mobile, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Stapleton, Stockton, Uriah, Calvert, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Brewton, Castleberry, Andalusia, Carolina, Opp, Florala, Gantt, Brantley, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Molino, Jay, Berrydale, and Laurel Hill.

COASTAL AREAS TO HAVE RAIN ONLY… Snow will probably not happen in coastal areas of Alabama and northwest Florida. If you live south of Interstate 10, there is a high chance you won’t have snow or flurries at all. More likely, we will just have a cold, miserable rain in these areas: Pensacola, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Silverhill, Robertsdale, Foley, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Dauphin Island, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Theodore, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Milton, Pace, Navarre, Holt, Harold, Crestview, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, and Niceville.

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA… Snow accumulation is not expected in southeast Alabama & the Wiregrass region. Could snow flurries happen? Yes, that is a possibility. This includes places near Dothan, Enterprise, Elba, Ozark, Daleville, Geneva, Samson, Abbeville, and Eufaula.

FLORIDA PANHANDLE – RAIN… There is high confidence that the Florida Panhandle region will have a cold rain and no snow/flurries on Tuesday. This includes Walton County and points east: Miramar Beach, Seaside, De Funiak Springs, Mossy Head, Chipley, Marianna, Bonifay, Panama City, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, and Blountstown.

CENTRAL AND NORTH ALABAMA… The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of northern and central Alabama where 1-3” of accumulating snow could happen. Travel impacts could be pretty extensive with roadway closures possible. Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden, Demopolis, Centreville, Sylacauga, Centre, Cullman, Oneonta, Jasper, Fayette, Aliceville, York, Eutaw, Marion, Haleyville, Double Springs, Saks, Leeds, Clanton, Huntsville, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Guntersville, Moulton, Russellville, Athens, Ardmore, Florence, Fort Payne, and and surrounding areas are included in this zone.

VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON… Temperatures will be QUITE cold Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, regardless of if your particular location has snow on the ground or not. We could be in hard freeze territory by Wednesday morning with upper-10s becoming possible on the thermometer by 6AM Wednesday across our northern counties. Wednesday will be a very cold day with highs only in the 40s under mostly cloudy skies.

LOCALIZED SNOW IMPACTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY

RZW EXEC SNOW UPDATE… RZW Exec partners, good Saturday evening! We’re looking ahead to Tuesday when we could have winter weather/snow impacts across parts of south Alabama. For now, snow impacts look to remain limited to parts of Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Wilcox, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama. Impacts could begin as early as Tuesday morning and extend into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Black ice on area roadways will be a possibility, especially in areas along and WEST of the Interstate 65 corridor. Northwest Florida, south central Alabama, and Mobile & Baldwin counties will likely have a few flurries, but not much more in the way of snow impacts. I will be publishing a much more detailed county-by-county analysis of what you can expect in tomorrow’s (Sunday) RZW Exec update, however this is an early “heads up” that there could be travel impacts and more over west Alabama on Tuesday. Below is the post I’ll be pushing publicly shortly in the RedZone Weather app and across our social platforms. Let me know if you have any early decision support needs or questions. Otherwise, you can expect to hear from me tomorrow evening. Have a good Saturday evening!

SNOW ACCUMULATION FIRST FORECAST; BLACK ICE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT… Tuesday, January 29 will likely be the first “snow day” that parts of our local area have had in quite some time. While there is still a high chance that much of our area will NOT have snow accumulation, west Alabama will likely be our local focus points for the area that have some accumulation. Snowflakes and flurries (with no accumulation or real impact) is what much of our area will have. Much of northwest Florida and southeast Alabama will have rain with very little in the way of snow/flurries. This is still very much an evolving forecast with high UNCERTAINTY, as are most “southern snow” events. Please continue to check back with me on Sunday and over the next few days in the lead-up to this event as more clarity will arrive with more forecast model data.

THE SNOW SITUATION ON TUESDAY… Rain showers will likely begin late Monday evening. Rain chances increase overnight into Tuesday morning. This will be a very cold rain with temperatures holding steady in the low-40s. There will be a (likely brief) change over from rain to sleet and ultimately snow during the late morning hours of Tuesday, first over west Alabama. The rain/snow line will progressively move east throughout the afternoon on Tuesday. There is some indication that dry air moving in behind the powerful cold front may overtake the layers of the atmosphere that are more moist and conducive for “snow-making.” If this happens, obviously snow would be more limited. On the contrary, there’s also a chance that we could have a few hours of light snow over west Alabama that spread eastward toward the I-65 corridor and beyond.

SNOW/MIX TIMING… Rain will be in progress Tuesday morning. The change over to snow will happen across west Alabama between 9AM and 1PM. This rain/snow line will move eastward and will likely reach places near Interstate 65 in the early afternoon hours. Snow/flurries will end from west to east in the early evening hours of Tuesday.

POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS… This is information that most people care about: Impacts, aka how it affects YOU. While there could be a light dusting of snow across Clarke, Monroe, Wilcox, Choctaw, and Washington counties in west Alabama (and points north), accumulation is much less likely across other counties in our region. Local roadways and bridges could potentially be affected by ice and snow buildup across these counties on Tuesday from late morning extending into Wednesday. For communities along, south, and east of the Interstate 65 corridor, the main concern won’t be snow/ice accumulation as much as it will be the potential for black ice that builds up on area roadways Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES… Winter storms and snow are two of the most difficult things we deal with in the weather forecast world for the Deep South. This is due, in part, to the relative infrequent nature of these systems. We don’t have a lot of good analogs to compare the atmosphere to in these situations. I say that very directly to say that this remains a LOW CONFIDENCE forecast. There can and will be changes that we need to make over the next few days. Please continue to check with me as we update the latest information. You can always get the latest info I post across social media and on our website in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.

NEXT UPDATE… My next #rzw forecast video will be posted by 2PM on Sunday afternoon. Let me know if you have specific questions and I’ll do my best to give you the best information we have as of right now.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY… RZW Exec partners, good morning! This is a quick update to let you know that the severe weather risk across the entirety of our local area has increased slightly. The Storm Prediction Center continues to “up the ante” in terms of the severe weather potential. This won’t be a large, significant tornado outbreak or anything like that, BUT there could be multiple tornadoes today across our region. You can see in the map above that SPC has upped most of our local area into their Level 2 (out of 5) standard slight risk zone. This means that scattered severe storms will be possible, specifically isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. We’re already observing broadly rotating cells.

TIMING OF STORMS… 1PM to 9PM is the 8 hour window in which severe weather is MOST likely to happen. We could have tornado warnings before that, but that 8 hour window is when the greatest combination of “severe weather ingredients” (shear/CAPE) will be in place across the region.

PUBLIC UPDATES CONTINUE… It’s been quite a busy morning already with numerous updates being posted in the public-facing sections of the RedZone Weather app. I’m about to send out a Medium-Level Alert in the next hour detailing more about the risks today. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or decision support needs. Have a good day!