STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY; HEAVY RAIN LIKELY… Isolated tornadoes will become possible across portions of south Alabama and northwest Florida on Monday as an area of low pressure moves by from the west. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of our area in their Level 1 (out of 5), low-end, marginal severe weather risk zone valid for Monday.

3 POTENTIAL HAZARDS

 1) There is a chance that our local area will have a few isolated tornadoes due to supercell thunderstorms out ahead of a squall line of storms that is likely to move by late in the day on Monday.

2) We’ll also need to monitor the stronger storms as damaging straight line winds will also be possible. The damaging wind gust risk will be greatest when the main line of storms passes through the area, likely later in the evening on Monday based on the latest guidance.

3) The likelihood of heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding in spots is very high. We will likely introduce an uncommon 100% probability of rain for Monday in upcoming forecasts. Most spots locally will pick up 2 to 3 inches of rain, with some isolated spots possibly reporting 4″ of rain before the event is over. See the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast below. This is a projection telling us how much rain (in total) is expected from this event.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING

There will likely be changes with this in the next 24-48 hours as we nail down specifics. Impacts in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will become possible as early as 6AM and extend to as late as 11PM on Monday, November 12. The greatest likelihood of severe weather (core timeframe) will happen from Noon to 9PM.

Below is a look at the North American Model (3km NAM) valid at 3PM CST on Monday. If this model view happened to be right, we would have developing supercell thunderstorms out ahead of a robust QLCS/squall line of thunderstorms that would be advancing eastward. Note that the tornado risk would begin far in advance of the line of storms arriving. The tornado risk would also be greatest when/if supercell storms develop. The damaging wind threat will be greatest AS the main line of storms passes by a given location.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… We will begin the public messaging about this potential severe weather event within the next few hours across social media and in the public-facing sections of the RedZone Weather app. The next RZW Exec update about this severe weather potential will be posted by 4PM on Sunday. As always, let me know if you have any specific decision support needs and/or questions. Have a great Saturday evening!

SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT… RZW Exec members, good Monday afternoon to each of you. This is a brief update to mention that the overall severe weather risk for today/tonight/Tuesday is much lower for our local area. Significant tornadoes will be possible well to our north in the northwestern corner of Alabama, much of the northern half of Mississippi, and the western half of Tennessee. The latest convective outlook depicts this below…

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS… Parameters suggest that while our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida could have a few thunderstorms, the overall severe weather risk is much lower. The Storm Prediction Center maintains much of Clarke, Washington, Monroe, Butler, Choctaw, and Wilcox counties in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone. This means that while a few strong storms could happen, the overall risk is very low. We note that vast majority of our local area is now OUT of the severe weather risk zones.

WHAT TO EXPECT LOCALLY… Clouds will continue to increase across our region today. Rain chances will spike tonight as isolated showers and thunderstorms pop up and stream into the north. There could be a few stronger thunderstorms around our area in the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning. Most of the storms should be gone by 3PM on Tuesday. We have multiple rounds of storms ahead over the next few days, but after Tuesday, the overall severe weather risk locally will remain fairly low.

MORE STORMS LATER THIS WEEK… Our active weather period is NOT over after the storms Tuesday. The cold front driving all of the nasty/severe weather to our north will stall out over our local area Tuesday evening. There will be several rounds of rain and thunderstorms each day through Friday. That is when the next, stronger cold front will sweep through the area paving the way for a dry weekend.

This will be the final RZW Exec update on this particular severe weather event unless parameters change in the days ahead. Please continue to monitor our public-facing products for the very latest. Let me know if you have any specific questions or concerns. Have a great evening!

RZW EXEC SATURDAY UPDATE… RZW Exec, good Saturday afternoon! I’m continuing to monitor a potentially significant severe weather risk setting up for Monday into Tuesday. The core of this severe weather risk will happen across northern Mississippi and Alabama. See the full, detailed public post that I will be posting in the next hour below. A few “off the record” comments for you this afternoon… Based on the latest model data, I think there is a good chance that the severe weather issues will happen to the north of our primary coverage area. You’ll see below that we mention Clarke and Washington counties having the greatest risk of severe weather locally. Yes, a tornado warning could happen across our area, especially north and west of I-65, but the odds of a tornado warning being issued locally remain LOW. The tornado risk will almost certainly set up well to our north.

PUBLIC POST

SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA EARLY NEXT WEEK… The Storm Prediction Center has issued an uncommon Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone for much of northwest Alabama, the northern half of Mississippi, and much of Tennessee. Strong, potentially long track tornadoes will become possible Monday evening into Tuesday across those areas. Locally in south Alabama and northwest Florida, there is now a Level 2 slight risk in place for Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, and Marengo counties in west Alabama. While the bigger issues will very likely be to our northwest, there still is a lower-end tornado and damaging wind risk in our local area, especially in west Alabama. Forecast refinements continue to happen so please check back with me on Sunday and Monday in the lead-up to this potentially significant severe weather event. That is the summary – below are the extensive details…

CHANGES SINCE YESTERDAY’S UPDATE… The latest model data has trended a bit farther north for the core of the major severe weather risk setting up for Monday into Tuesday. This is why the Level 3 enhanced risk zone is in place for the northern half of Mississippi (north of I-20), the northwest part of Alabama (northwest of I-59), much of Tennessee, and eastern Arkansas. This bodes well for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida as confidence is a bit higher that the major issues will be well to our north and west.

GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN ALABAMA… Communities in the Level 3 enhanced risk zone in north/west Alabama have the greatest chance of experiencing a tornado, damaging winds, and large hail. All modes of severe weather will be possible in these areas on Monday into Tuesday: Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Cullman, Jasper, Double Springs, Fayette, Hamilton, Carrollton, Aliceville, Russellville, Moulton, Decatur, Athens, and Ardmore. These are the areas where severe weather parameters will likely be highest.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF THE STATE… The standard, Level 2 slight risk of severe weather is in place for many more communities in Alabama, including some in the local area. These are the areas that have a tornado and damaging wind risk in the slightly lower (but still very significant!) Level 2 zone: Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Leroy, Chatom, McIntosh, Wagerville, Butler, Toxey, Silas, Demopolis, Sweet Water, Linden, Camden, Pine Hill, Selma, Marion, Eutaw, Livingston, Centreville, Prattville, Clanton, Hoover, Birmingham, Leeds, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Sylacauga, Rockford, Centre, Fort Payne, and Boaz.

EXPECTATIONS FOR LOCAL AREA… The severe weather risk in south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen most likely Monday night into Tuesday morning with the main risk coming from a QLCS/squall line of intense thunderstorms. There is a lower-end risk, especially in west Alabama, of a few discrete supercell thunderstorms happening, but I think core of the supercell risk will be well to our north. For our local area, if you are in Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Monroe, Marengo, or Wilcox counties, you have the highest risk of experiencing severe weather from this event.

LOWER-END RISK FOR MOST FOLKS LOCALLY… There is a low-end, Level 1 marginal risk in place for Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Santa Rosa, Escambia (FL), Conecuh, Butler, Covington, and Crenshaw counties, meaning an isolated strong storm may happen. Odds are most of these areas will just have general thunderstorms due to what will likely be a weakening line of thunderstorms Tuesday morning.

APP… Before this potential significant round of severe weather happens, NOW is the time to get prepared. Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app and set up customized app alerts. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app on your iOS or Android device, check out the Alerts tab in the lower right corner, then tap on the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to choose which alerts you would like to receive.

Have a great Saturday evening!

TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TO OUR NORTH/WEST NEXT WEEK

RZW Exec members, good morning! Looking ahead to next week, there is a growing consensus that we could have big severe weather issues across the northern half of Alabama late Monday into Tuesday. The severe weather risk seems much lower at this time for the local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Here is the graphic (above) and detailed text discussion (below) that we will post publicly in the next hour. I won’t be saying this statement publicly, but this absolutely could be a major tornado outbreak based on the latest model guidance. Long track, significant, potentially violent tornadoes could happen across Mississippi and the northern half of Alabama, based on the latest guidance.

PUBLIC POST

TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH… There is a growing chance that there could be a significant round of severe weather early next week across portions of Mississippi and central & northern Alabama. The latest model runs, in addition to the experts at the Storm Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices, are all sounding the alarm on a potential tornado outbreak that may set up across portions of Mississippi and the northern half of Alabama. There is a chance that significant, long track tornadoes may happen Monday into Tuesday across those areas. For south Alabama and northwest Florida, the severe weather risk seems a bit lower at this point, but this will definitely be something to monitor as we go through the weekend. Note that there is still 3 days between now and this potential event so forecast refinements and changes may be necessary. Be sure to check back with me this weekend for the latest. Let’s talk about the details we do know as of now…

GREATEST CONCERN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 80… If you’re in Alabama, the greatest chance of severe weather (based on the latest guidance) will be near and north of U.S. Highway 80. This means that places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden, Jasper, Cullman, Hamilton, Huntsville, Muscle Shoals, Alexander City, Marion, Livingston, Sylacauga, Oneonta, Centre, Fort Payne, Double Springs, Decatur, and surrounding areas will have the potential for a significant round of severe weather.

LONG TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE… We will be able to get much more specific about this in the days ahead as more model data pours in, but you should know there is a growing potential for a few long track, significant tornadoes across the northern half of Alabama. There is no way to know specifically when/if and where these will occur just yet, but environmental parameters support the potential for a few big tornadoes.

SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… The severe weather potential for our local coverage area in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be lower than areas to our north and west, but it won’t be zero most likely. The current guidance supports a weakening line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving through on Tuesday morning. This means there will be at least some potential of damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes, especially across the northwestern corner of our local area (Clarke, Monroe, Washington counties and areas back to the northwest). Specifics will come into focus over the next day or so.

WHAT IS CAUSING THIS POTENTIAL… An area of low pressure will develop across the lower Mississippi valley region, lifting quickly to the northeast. Behind this area of low pressure to the south, a cold front will develop and move to the southeast. The warm sector will be out ahead of the cold front, where dewpoint values could be in the upper-60s and near 70. This means that the atmosphere is very moist and supportive of severe storms. In addition to plentiful Gulf moisture, there will be strong winds in the upper part of the atmosphere at the base of a digging, negatively-tilted trough. All of these “symptoms” point to a significant round of severe weather setting up for much of the Deep South on Monday into Tuesday.

HAVE A PLAN… Now is the time to review your tornado safety plan that we preach constantly throughout the year to school kids, civic clubs, and pretty much anyone that will listen. When a tornado warning is issued, we encourage you to get to the lowest floor of a well-built, site-built structure in a small, interior room near the center of the structure. This typically means a hallway, closet, or bathroom with no windows. Mobile homes and vehicles are generally not safe during tornadoes. Those are two of the places you absolutely should NOT be during a tornado warning. Everyone should have a helmet or something sturdy to protect your head from flying debris. It looks funny, yes, but they truly are LIFE-saving! Have a way to get the warnings and then DO SOMETHING about it when the warning is issued. So many people get the warnings these days and don’t take any action. That’s a problem. TAKE ACTION when the warning is issued.

APP ALERTS… Thank you so much to the thousands of people who have downloaded and regularly use our free RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the RZW app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of the app) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me.

I’ll have more updates this weekend about this potential round of significant severe storms. Be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest. Have a nice Friday evening!

SEVERE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY… RZW Exec members, good evening! Our first significant severe weather risk of the secondary severe weather season will happen tomorrow (Thursday, November 1). Damaging straight line winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main concerns. We expect a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms to move from west to east across our local area during the morning/early afternoon hours of Thursday. Let’s look at a few graphics and talk through these…

SEVERE RISK TO THE WEST TODAY

There is an enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) severe weather risk in place for much of southwest Mississippi, Louisiana, and east Texas this afternoon, this evening, and tonight. A few tornadoes, perhaps a few strong ones, could happen in those areas. This is the same system responsible for our severe weather risk on Thursday. It is setting up now over Texas and Louisiana.

LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY

The latest update (posted at 12:23PM) from the Storm Prediction Center shows all of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida included in a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid in the daytime hours of Thursday. Communities along and south of a line from Butler to Camden to Union Springs to Eufaula are included in this risk zone. Again, all local areas are included in this standard, slight risk. This means that isolated instances of downed trees and other damage will be possible. Straight line wind gusts are the main concern on Thursday as the squall line moves by, with isolated, embedded, brief tornadoes also being a concern. There is some chance that we could have a few supercell thunderstorms out ahead of the main line of storms that may produce large hail and tornadoes as well. ALL modes of severe weather will be possible Thursday.

PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS

Most spots across our local area will pick up 1.5″ to 2.5″ of rain. The greatest chance of a location getting more than 2 inches of rainfall will happen in west Alabama west of the Alabama River in Clarke, Mobile, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties.

DAMAGING WIND RISK TIMES

The damaging straight line wind gusts will be the biggest concern as the QLCS/squall line moves through our region on Thursday. This line of storms will most likely move through between 9AM and 3PM. That is when we have the elevated risk of damaging wind gusts.

TORNADO RISK TIMES

If we have discrete supercell thunderstorms form out ahead of the main line of thunderstorms on Thursday, we will need to not only increase the risk of tornadoes, but also bump back the timing a little bit as the cells will form in advance of the main line of storms passing through. Unfortunately, there’s no way to know just yet whether supercell thunderstorms will form out ahead of this line. Regardless, we’ll be in studio starting at 5AM on Thursday monitoring trends and bringing you the very latest in our public-facing products.

FINAL RZW EXEC UPDATE… This is the final RZW Exec update in advance of this severe weather potential as my focus will now shift to preparing for our live video updates tonight and on Thursday. Please continue to monitor the front page of the RedZone Weather app for the very latest. Per our usual policy, if we have any tornado warnings for any part of our 12 county coverage area, we will be streaming live video coverage across our platforms. Let me know if you have any specific questions or concerns. Have a great evening!