ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THURSDAY… RZW Exec members, good evening. There is an increasing, but still low-end, chance that we could see a few isolated, brief tornadoes on Thursday across our coastal counties. Thursday will be quite wet across the region as an area of low pressure moves near our coastline or just to the south. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to where this surface low will track, and honestly the specific track will determine whether or not tornadoes will happen. Some models keep the center of the low offshore, which would bode MUCH better for our area and eliminate the severe weather risk. Other models show the area of low pressure tracking farther inland, meaning areas south of the accompanying warm front would be in a zone where tornadoes would be possible.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS… Isolated tornadoes possible, mainly along and south of Interstate 10 in Alabama and northwest Florida. Heavy rain is likely throughout the day on Thursday, meaning isolated instances of flash flooding could become possible. Regardless of if the tornado risk materializes, heavy rain and flash flooding concerns will be in place.

SEVERITY… Low-end risk of a few, brief, isolated tornadoes… Most areas will have general rain and storms with little in the way of significant impacts.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED… The low-end tornado risk will almost certainly be in coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa). The low-end risk for flash flooding will be areawide, including inland areas.

TIMELINE OF IMPACTS… Rain and general thunderstorms are possible as early as 1AM Wednesday. The severe weather risk could kick off as early as 5AM and extend well into Wednesday evening. For now, we’ll go with a core severe weather timeframe of 8AM Wednesday to 8PM Wednesday. Rain and storms will move out late Thursday night into early Friday. Clearing skies are expected starting midday on Friday.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… My next RZW Exec update will be posted by 5PM tomorrow (Tuesday, October 23). We will begin our public messaging about this potential, low-end severe weather risk later this evening.

MICHAEL LIKELY TO PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST… RZW Exec partners, good morning! The latest projected path/forecast from the National Hurricane Center continues to show that much of the impact from Hurricane Michael will happen near or just to our southeast. This could be a potentially devastating hurricane for areas in Bay and Gulf counties in the Florida Panhandle, in areas near Panama City, Tyndall Air Force Base, Mexico Beach, and Port Saint Joe.

The following potential impacts statements have been modified slightly for south Alabama and northwest Florida.

HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… Since Hurricane Michael will likely be a major hurricane at landfall, there is a high chance that the wind field associated with the landfalling system may be quite large. The hurricane force winds won’t extend outward very far compared to the much larger tropical storm force wind field. Please notice the verbiage in the graphic above, in that each zone is a POSSIBLE zone. These are (at this time) the higher end of how strong winds will be in a given area. There is a good chance that winds across our area in south Alabama and northwest Florida won’t reach the high numbers in the outlined zones in the graphic above. Clearly, the greatest chance of strong winds in our area will almost certainly happen in Okaloosa, southern Santa Rosa, and southern Covington counties. The stronger winds are likely to be in Walton, Bay, and Gulf counties in the Florida Panhandle.

TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. There is high confidence that our local area will be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower (if not zero) for most of us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola). If a rogue, brief, spin-up tornado happened to occur in our local area, it would likely happen in Okaloosa or Covington counties.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern fringe of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding will almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties. 2-3” of rain will be possible in portions of these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. Some spots in Clarke and Washington counties may not have any rain. 7-8” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).

Let me know if you have any questions or need decision support as far as your organization or business! Plenty of updates will be posted today in the public-facing areas of the RedZone Weather app. If you missed our live morning video, I would encourage you to watch it as it is packed with the latest information! Here is the link for the video and the extremely detailed text discussion.

Have a great Tuesday!

UPDATE FOR WIND IMPACTS… RZW Exec partners, this is a very brief update for you as I am in the process of getting our evening live video update prepared. The biggest change to pass along this evening is an updated “high wind potential” graphic that will debut publicly in the live video. Note that because of the significant westward shift in the projected path of Hurricane Michael issued in the 4PM advisory by the National Hurricane Center, as a course of least regret, we are including many more areas in our local area into classified wind zones. The core of the impacts locally are still expected to be in Okaloosa County. Southern Santa Rosa and Covington counties may also have high winds at times, very contingent on the actual track of the center of Hurricane Michael. Note that I’m erring on the side of wind speed values being a little too high rather than too low. This is primarily due to the continued track uncertainty that looms large in the forecast.

RZW Exec partners, good evening! We will be doing a LIVE video update on Facebook and here in the RedZone Weather app in 20-30 minutes as we bring the RedZone community the latest on Hurricane Michael. I’ve just finished an updated text discussion that will accompany the video in the app. Here is an exclusive first look so you can have a heads up of the messaging we will bring the public. Please reach out if you have specific questions I can help you with as far as decision support. Thanks.

MICHAEL LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL…
HURRICANE WARNINGS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT… Hurricane Michael is moving north and continues to organize in the Yucatan Channel. The system will cross into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. While Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for many locales in our area, the greatest concern continues to be for areas just to our southeast. The core of Michael is expected to make landfall in the Florida panhandle as a major hurricane most likely in the daytime hours of Wednesday. A “last minute” turn to the northeast should prevent significant issues from occurring across much of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida, although there is still major uncertainty as to WHEN this turn will begin. Unfortunately, there still is enough uncertainty in the forecast to warrant a Hurricane Watch for our northwest Florida coastal counties.

TROUGH TO FLING MICHAEL NORTHEAST… It may seem hard to believe, but a big upper-level trough currently situated over the Rocky Mountains in the western United States is the driver for exactly where Hurricane Michael will end up. If Michael moves slower today into tomorrow as it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico, there’s a very high chance that the northeasterly turn will begin over the Gulf of Mexico. This would be the desirable scenario for south Alabama and northwest Florida, as the core of Michael would likely miss our area to the southeast. IF, however, Michael starts moving faster over the southern Gulf into tonight, there’s a chance the hurricane could move farther to the north, thus increasing our chance of significant impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida. I’ve got a detailed look at a few model scenarios in the video. Be sure to check it out.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR NW FLORIDA COUNTIES… The following counties are included in a Hurricane Watch in northwest Florida: Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Escambia [FL]. Just to our east, Walton, Bay, Gulf, Franklin, Calhoun [FL], Liberty, Jackson [FL], Washington [FL], and Holmes counties are included in the Hurricane Watch. The reason the hurricane watch has been issued is because hurricane conditions are possible in the next 48 hours, especially at the immediate coastline. This hurricane watch includes places like Pensacola, Milton, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Opal Beach, Mary Esther, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Eglin AFB, Panama City, Port St. Joe, Apalachicola, Mexico Beach, Carrabelle, St. George Island, Eastpoint, Tyndall AFB, Laguna Beach, Rosemary Beach, and Seaside.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTH ALABAMA COUNTIES… Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [AL], Monroe, Conecuh, Butler and Covington counties are all now under a Tropical Storm Watch in our local area. Just to our east, Crenshaw, Coffee, Geneva, Dale, Houston, and Henry counties are involved in the tropical storm watch as well. There is a good chance that tropical storm conditions won’t happen across many of the interior counties of southwest Alabama, although until we have more confidence in the track guidance, I think it’s a great preemptive move on the part of NWS/NHC to have these counties included in the Tropical Storm Watch.

UPDATED POTENTIAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT… So much will depend on the exact track of Hurricane Michael in the days ahead. Note that the following potential impacts assessment is for south Alabama and northwest Florida, areas mainly to the west of where the center of Michael is forecast to be over the next few days.

HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… Since Hurricane Michael may be a major hurricane at landfall, there is a growing chance that the wind field associated with the landfalling system may be quite large. In addition, since we’re still not entirely sure where the core of the hurricane will move inland, that is why we have a hurricane watch in effect from AL/FL border eastward to the Suwanee River. The hurricane force winds won’t extend outward very far compared to the much larger tropical storm force wind field, however because of track uncertainty, it is a prudent move to have the Hurricane Watch in place for many more areas. As of this moment, the official NHC forecast “cone of uncertainty” shows that there is a significant chance the core of Michael will pass just to the southeast of our local area. This would put vast majority of the local area on the “better” western side of the system. IF this scenario pans out, inland areas of southwest Alabama would have very little in the way of wind impacts. Gusty winds (20-30mph) would still be possible at the immediate coastline/beach areas. I caution, however, that the cone of uncertainty extends from near Pensacola eastward to Cedar Key, FL. That is still a very wide swath of coastline where the center of circulation may make landfall. If the track shifts farther west in future advisories, we will have to significantly adjust the high wind potential impacts for our local area.

TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. IF current forecast trends verify, much of our local area would be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower (if not zero) for most of us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola). IF the center of circulation makes more of a northerly jog toward Laguna Beach or Destin, however, there could be a tornado risk across Walton, Okaloosa, Covington counties, in addition to the Florida Panhandle and the Wiregrass region of southeast Alabama.

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern fringe of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding would almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties IF current forecast trends verify. 2-3” of rain will be possible in these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. 7-8” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).

STORM SURGE POTENTIAL… A Storm Surge Warning will go into effect later this evening for much of the Florida Panhandle. If you live near or at the immediate coastline, TAKE THE STORM SURGE THREAT SERIOUSLY. 8-10 feet of water rise is not out of the question in low-lying areas near the immediate beaches near and south of Panama City. Storm surge of 2-4 feet is not out of the question at Destin, Fort Walton Beach, and points just to the east and west of there. Again, if you get an evacuation order, HEED IT and leave! Storm surge kills way too many people in our nation.

Let me know if you have any questions. Have a nice Monday evening!

T.S. MICHAEL STRENGTHENING

MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN… Tropical Storm Michael is gaining strength quickly in the northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea this evening. Maximum sustained winds are now at 60mph. I would not be surprised if Michael becomes a hurricane on Monday as it continues to slowly move north. The forward rate of speed will increase in the hours ahead and Michael will be moving over the very warm (86-87°) waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico.

A NOTE ABOUT INTENSITY GUIDANCE… I will be mentioning this publicly this evening, but I won’t be using the language I’m using here. Because RZW Exec is a private program designed for community leaders, I’m going to be blunt in my assessment with you this evening: There is a small, but growing (25%) chance that Michael rapidly strengthens over the next 48 hours. Some of the intensity guidance off of the major global models (ECMWF/Euro, GFS, etc.) suggests a category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. These are definitely outliers in the data as of now, but very concerning nonetheless. MOST of the intensity guidance peaks as a category 2 hurricane at landfall, which is reflected in the latest NHC forecast. I expect the official NHC intensity forecast to be adjusted slightly higher in the next 12-24 hours to properly account for this possibility.

HOPEFULLY CURRENT FORECAST WILL VERIFY… If the current projected path (depicted in the graphic above) verifies, (and all current model data suggests that it will) that would be EXCELLENT news for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Unfortunately, this would be a potentially damaging scenario for much of the Florida Panhandle near Panama City, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola, Blountstown, and Marianna. There could be extensive damage in those areas as high (100+ mph potentially) winds happen when Michael moves by. The good news is ALL of our local area would be on the “better” western flank of the system. This means the winds would be out of the north for us, creating an offshore flow at the coastline. Heavy rain would be a concern across parts of Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties in addition to the Florida Panhandle and the Wiregrass, but southwest Alabama and much of northwest Florida would be spared if the current forecast verifies.

TIMELINE OF IMPACTS… We’ll need to watch the leading feeder bands that approach the northwest Florida late Tuesday evening. I would not be surprised if the first rain/feeder bands reach the coastline late Tuesday evening or very early in the morning on Wednesday. Okaloosa County is the only county in our primary coverage area that will have any type of significant impacts if the current forecast verifies. Impacts will be most likely during the daytime hours of Wednesday from 6AM to 6PM. That is the core 12 hour window that is most likely to feature impacts in Okaloosa County. Obviously this can change, but that’s the latest thinking based on the NHC forecast and model data.

HIGH WIND POTENTIAL… The most dangerous area of strong winds will almost certainly happen near and east of the center of circulation. As of this moment, the official NHC forecast “cone of uncertainty” shows that there is a significant chance the core of Michael will pass just to the southeast of our local area. This would put vast majority of the local area on the “better” western side of the system. IF this scenario pans out, inland areas of southwest Alabama would have very little in the way of wind impacts. Gusty winds (20-30mph) would still be possible at the immediate coastline/beach areas. I caution, however, that the cone of uncertainty extends from near Pensacola eastward to Cedar Key, FL. That is still a very wide swath of coastline where the center of circulation may make landfall. If the track shifts farther west in future advisories, we will have to significantly adjust the high wind potential impacts for our local area.

TORNADO POTENTIAL… The right, front quadrant of Tropical Storm Michael will be the most likely area for tornadoes to happen. IF current forecast trends verify, much of our local area would be on the WEST side of the system, meaning the tornado risk would be much, much lower (if not zero) for us. This would mean an enhanced risk of tornadoes for areas along and east of the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola).

HEAVY RAIN & FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… Regardless of how strong Michael becomes OR where the center makes landfall, heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding will be a concern across the eastern fringe of our local area. The greatest risk of flash flooding would almost certainly be in Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Covington counties IF current forecast trends verify. 2-3” of rain will be possible in these counties with lesser rain amounts to the north and east. 5-6” of rain is not out of the question for areas near/east the center of circulation (Panama City, Tallahassee, Dothan, Marianna, Blountstown, Port Saint Joe, Apalachicola). Overall, this will likely be more a nuisance than anything hazardous, based on current trends.

STORM SURGE POTENTIAL… The common theme continues in the storm surge category in that significant storm surge will be possible along and east of the center of circulation. There could be some storm surge in northwest Florida to the west of the center as well, but I do think because of the offshore flow, that will help to mitigate some of the storm surge issues on the western flank of the storm.

GOOD NEWS, FOR NOW… It’s good news, for now. The core of what will likely be a strengthening Hurricane Michael will pass just to our southeast, potentially bringing multiple hazardous to counties just to our southeast in the Florida Panhandle. Forecast changes ARE possible, and it’s important that we do not let our guard down just yet. I have cancelled my presentation schedule through Wednesday evening to continue to be in studio keeping tabs on this developing storm.

Please reach out if you have specific questions and please continue to monitor my public-facing statements for the latest information. I’m grateful for the support of our RedZone Weather sponsors who empower me to bring the latest information to the people of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Thanks again for your support.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… Tomorrow: Monday, October 8, 2018.