HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES THIS WEEK… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday evening! We have quite a bit of rain on the way, especially on Tuesday into Wednesday. The overall risk of severe weather remains low, as in there is currently a very low risk of tornadoes and low risk of gusty winds in the stronger storms that happen Tuesday evening then again on Wednesday in the afternoon and evening hours. Clearly, the greatest weather-related risk this week will be the potential for flash flooding.

FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL… The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) continues to indicate that 3 to 4 inches of rainfall in total are expected across inland areas of south Alabama through Thursday. This means if you’re in Clarke, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Covington, Escambia (AL), or Washington counties in south Alabama, you have a slightly higher risk of flash flooding. Coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa) will pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in total this week. There is some concern that river flooding that is ongoing along the Alabama River and Tombigbee River in west Alabama may be at least somewhat exacerbated by this new rainfall.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… The big takeaway here is that the overall risk of severe weather remains LOW for Tuesday into Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked parts of west Alabama in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for Tuesday along with much of central and southern Mississippi. These are the zones where one or two severe storms can’t be completely ruled out, primarily on Tuesday evening. The main convective hazard in any stronger storms that happen would be gusty winds but an isolated tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out, although the risk remains very low. We will get the new convective outlook valid for Wednesday tomorrow morning. I expect much of south Alabama and northwest Florida to be placed in their low-end risk zone valid for Wednesday. I will have another RZW Exec update for you tomorrow (Monday) afternoon. Please let me know if you have any questions.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK… RZW Exec partners, good Thursday afternoon to each of you. We have had somewhat of a lull in severe weather activity in the last two weeks. That changes next week when we could have another round of strong to severe storms. Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding will all be possible on Wednesday, March 4 as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has added much of Mississippi, southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and eastern Texas into their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Tuesday. I expect a continuation of this risk into Wednesday. We’ll get a new convective outlook valid for this timeframe tomorrow (Friday) morning.

It is still quite early in the process, meaning a lot can and will change between now and the middle part of next week but the big takeaway is that we probably will have active weather rumbling through. Water levels of creeks and rivers over west Alabama remain elevated due to all of the recent heavy rain that we’ve had. Flash flooding could quickly become an issue depending on where the rain axis sets up next week.

My next RZW Exec update will be posted by Sunday evening, at the latest. Until then, be sure to let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a great evening!

SEVERE WEATHER RISK A BIT LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday afternoon! The overall severe weather risk late Wednesday into early Thursday has lessened somewhat. The Storm Prediction Center has lowered much of our local area into their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone. This means that while a severe storm or two cannot be ruled out, this will be a rain event for vast majority of us. The timing for this severe weather potential remains on track. 9PM Wednesday to 6AM Thursday is the nine hour window when severe storms will be most likely to occur across our region. We’re expecting a weakening line of storms to approach west Alabama around midnight. The line of storms should progressively weaken as it moves across our region. An isolated tornado or damaging wind gusts will still be possible, but again, the overall risk is now a bit lower. Most spots will probably pick up half an inch to one inch of rain in total with this event.

My next long form discussion and detailed video will be posted this evening around 8PM. Hope you’ll join us for that. Please let me know if you have any questions or have any specific decision support needs. Have a great evening!

RZW EXEC: STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING & THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Monday afternoon! We have another round of strong to severe thunderstorms that will become possible during the evening hours on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The main concern will be gusty winds that may knock down a few trees across the area. There also is a risk of a few tornadoes, similar to the system that moved by last Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Our local area remains involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk, meaning scattered severe storms may happen. In addition, there is a substantial risk of flash flooding that is ongoing to our north across north-central Alabama this week. Below is the public text discussion that will debut this evening with our next video. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or concerns or have any specific decision support needs. Thank you!

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY… Details continue to come into better focus regarding our potential for strong to severe storms on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The higher risk area will almost certainly happen to our north across parts of west-central Alabama and central Mississippi. There also is an extreme risk of flash flooding in areas just to our north across the northern half of Alabama tonight into early Tuesday. Numerous flash flood warnings are in place this evening near the Birmingham metro area. Let’s look at your forecast details.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING: WEDNESDAY P.M. INTO THURSDAY MORNING… The latest model guidance continues to suggest Wednesday evening into Thursday morning will be the time in which severe storms are most likely to happen. 6PM Wednesday to 3AM Thursday is the 9 hour window when severe weather will be MOST likely to happen across our region. This has been adjusted slightly since our morning text discussion.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS… The two most significant concerns across south Alabama and northwest Florida will be the potential for a few tornadoes and damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms. Depending on the specific setup, there could be some hail involved as well. While the flash flooding potential locally is much lower compared to communities farther to our north, IF storms train over the same areas, we could have a few isolated areas of flash flooding as well.

LEVEL 3, ENHANCED RISK TO OUR NORTH & WEST… The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone for much of west-central Alabama, central and southwest Mississippi, and northeast Louisiana. The following communities are included in Alabama: Tuscaloosa, Northport, Livingston, Geiger, Eutaw, Forkland, Carrollton, Aliceville, Reform, Gordo, Fayette, Vernon, and Hamilton.

LEVEL 2 RISK LOCALLY… Nearly all of our local area is involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone, where severe storms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Greenville, Georgiana, Evergreen, Castleberry, Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, Leroy, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Theodore, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Silverhill, Loxley, Robertsdale, Point Clear, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Bay Minette, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Milton, Pace, Jay, Berrydale, Crestview, and surrounding areas.

FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO OUR NORTH THIS WEEK… Numerous flash flood warnings are in effect this afternoon across north-central Alabama, including in areas near Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. There is a considerable threat of flash flooding setting up over the next few days across the northern half of Alabama. 5 to 8 inches of rain will be possible primarily north of Interstate 20. This includes places like Birmingham, Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Cullman, Anniston, Gadsden, Jasper, Hamilton, Aliceville, and surrounding areas. If you’re headed to any of those areas this week, be aware of a significant threat of flash flooding and heavy rain! Much of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have 0.5” to 2” of rain in total, with isolated higher amounts. Our forecast calls for a chance of rain each day starting Monday and ending Saturday for our local area, although rain amounts should remain below hazardous/flash flooding values locally.

NEXT VIDEO THIS EVENING… I will have your next detailed video update available by 8:15PM this evening. Be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day for the very latest on this developing severe weather potential. I will also be posting radar updates throughout the day as needed as more rain and storms move in later today.

Have a nice Monday evening!

FORECAST ON TRACK: STRONG STORMS & HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday morning! No major changes are needed in our forecast messaging. We will continue to advertise a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday into Thursday morning for south Alabama and northwest Florida. The main concern continues to be damaging straight line wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and flash flooding. The risk for heavy rain and flash flooding has increased somewhat, as the latest model guidance now shows a wide swath of our area picking up 3 to 4 inches of rain in total over the next 72 hours. We will push this information publicly within the next hour. Please let me know if you have any specific decision support needs. Have a nice afternoon!

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY; HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY… Multiple weather hazards, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and flash flooding, will be possible Wednesday P.M. into Thursday A.M. across the local area. The concern for flash flooding continues to increase as we look ahead to the likelihood of multiple hours of heavy rain setting up for Wednesday and Thursday. The latest forecast guidance from the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows the potential for 2 to 5 inches of rainfall in total in many spots across our region. The Storm Prediction Center maintains their Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida as there is a concern for a few tornadoes and severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as well. Let’s look at a few midday Tuesday forecast updates.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA… The National Weather Service in Mobile will likely issue a Flash Flood Watch for northwest Florida in the hours ahead. Based on the latest model guidance, it seems like the greatest chance for heavy rain will happen in parts of Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. NWS Mobile notes that coastal communities and areas that are more urban have a slightly greater flash flood risk compared to communities farther inland. It has been said a thousand times, but it still rings true: If you encounter a water-covered roadway, do NOT attempt to drive over it. We lose too many people across America each year to this phenomenon. Don’t risk it. Turn around, don’t drown.

LEVEL 2 RISK CONTINUES… The midday update from the Storm Prediction Center continues to include ALL of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone where scattered severe storms may happen Wednesday into Thursday. This means scattered instances of tornadoes and damaging winds may happen across our region. Have a way to get the warnings Wednesday into Thursday. DO something about it and take action to get sheltered if your particular area goes under a tornado warning. Level 2 risk (valid for Wednesday into Thursday) as of Tuesday afternoon: Mobile, Pensacola, Birmingham, Montgomery, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Georgiana, Greenville, McKenzie, Hayneville, Camden, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Flomaton, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Silas, Butler, Pennington, Livingston, McIntosh, Leroy, Citronelle, Bay Minette, Mount Vernon, Saraland, Satsuma, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Foley, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Loxley, Stockton, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Gulf Breeze, Warrington, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Jay, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Baker, Fort Walton Beach, Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Enterprise, Dothan, Troy, Geneva, Marion, Selma, and Demopolis and surrounding areas.

We continue to advise that multiple waves/rounds of severe weather may happen Wednesday into Thursday. The following info remains on target from my previous forecast discussion from this morning.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… The big takeaway from our latest forecast is that we have multiple times when strong to severe thunderstorms may happen. Basically in the 24 hour period from 11AM Wednesday to 11AM Thursday, we need everyone to have a way to get urgent weather warnings. There is not a guarantee warnings will be needed, but that is a growing possibility at this point.

ROUND 1 OF 2: “MESSY STORM MODE” WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON… We will likely have quite a bit of rain and embedded thunderstorms happening across coastal Alabama and northwest Florida in the early afternoon hours of Wednesday. The better dynamics and thermodynamics for severe storms will set up during the evening hours, likely between 2PM and 7PM. This could manifest as clusters of storms or a line of storms. There even could be a big mass of rain and storms with a few supercells closer to the coast. We simply do not have a good grasp of the exact setup of how storms will develop just yet, but there is high confidence that heavy rain will happen at times on Wednesday with a few convective hazards (tornadoes and damaging winds) being possible. After this round of storms, we will probably have a lull in storm action late Wednesday evening into the early morning hours.

ROUND 2 OF 2: STRONG LINE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY MORNING… Cold air will be nudging up against warm, humid air along the advancing cold front on Thursday morning. This front will be slowly moving across our region likely around sunrise on Thursday. While timing remains a bit uncertain, a QLCS/squall line of storms is expected to develop along the cold front. This line of storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes. Once this line of storms moves through your particular locale, you’ll get an all clear and the severe weather risk will come to an end. This will likely happen in many spots from 6AM to 11AM on Thursday.

SUNNY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON… After the active weather during the middle part of the week, we get a nice Friday and nice weekend as a consolation prize. High temperatures Friday will be in the low-60s. Clearing skies are expected in the afternoon and evening hours. There should be a good amount of sunshine in the P.M. hours of Friday.

NICE, MILD WEEKEND AHEAD… Sunny skies are likely for Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will be in the mid-60s each day with morning lows in the 40s. This is exactly where we should be, climatologically speaking, for early February. Get out and enjoy the weekend!

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

Have a nice Tuesday evening!