RZW EXEC: STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING & THURSDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Monday afternoon! We have another round of strong to severe thunderstorms that will become possible during the evening hours on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The main concern will be gusty winds that may knock down a few trees across the area. There also is a risk of a few tornadoes, similar to the system that moved by last Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Our local area remains involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk, meaning scattered severe storms may happen. In addition, there is a substantial risk of flash flooding that is ongoing to our north across north-central Alabama this week. Below is the public text discussion that will debut this evening with our next video. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or concerns or have any specific decision support needs. Thank you!
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY… Details continue to come into better focus regarding our potential for strong to severe storms on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The higher risk area will almost certainly happen to our north across parts of west-central Alabama and central Mississippi. There also is an extreme risk of flash flooding in areas just to our north across the northern half of Alabama tonight into early Tuesday. Numerous flash flood warnings are in place this evening near the Birmingham metro area. Let’s look at your forecast details.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING: WEDNESDAY P.M. INTO THURSDAY MORNING… The latest model guidance continues to suggest Wednesday evening into Thursday morning will be the time in which severe storms are most likely to happen. 6PM Wednesday to 3AM Thursday is the 9 hour window when severe weather will be MOST likely to happen across our region. This has been adjusted slightly since our morning text discussion.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS… The two most significant concerns across south Alabama and northwest Florida will be the potential for a few tornadoes and damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms. Depending on the specific setup, there could be some hail involved as well. While the flash flooding potential locally is much lower compared to communities farther to our north, IF storms train over the same areas, we could have a few isolated areas of flash flooding as well.
LEVEL 3, ENHANCED RISK TO OUR NORTH & WEST… The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone for much of west-central Alabama, central and southwest Mississippi, and northeast Louisiana. The following communities are included in Alabama: Tuscaloosa, Northport, Livingston, Geiger, Eutaw, Forkland, Carrollton, Aliceville, Reform, Gordo, Fayette, Vernon, and Hamilton.
LEVEL 2 RISK LOCALLY… Nearly all of our local area is involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone, where severe storms will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Opp, Greenville, Georgiana, Evergreen, Castleberry, Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Monroeville, Uriah, Beatrice, Thomasville, Fulton, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, Leroy, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Theodore, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Silverhill, Loxley, Robertsdale, Point Clear, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Bay Minette, Century, Bratt, Walnut Hill, Molino, Milton, Pace, Jay, Berrydale, Crestview, and surrounding areas.
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO OUR NORTH THIS WEEK… Numerous flash flood warnings are in effect this afternoon across north-central Alabama, including in areas near Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. There is a considerable threat of flash flooding setting up over the next few days across the northern half of Alabama. 5 to 8 inches of rain will be possible primarily north of Interstate 20. This includes places like Birmingham, Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Cullman, Anniston, Gadsden, Jasper, Hamilton, Aliceville, and surrounding areas. If you’re headed to any of those areas this week, be aware of a significant threat of flash flooding and heavy rain! Much of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have 0.5” to 2” of rain in total, with isolated higher amounts. Our forecast calls for a chance of rain each day starting Monday and ending Saturday for our local area, although rain amounts should remain below hazardous/flash flooding values locally.
NEXT VIDEO THIS EVENING… I will have your next detailed video update available by 8:15PM this evening. Be sure to check with me in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day for the very latest on this developing severe weather potential. I will also be posting radar updates throughout the day as needed as more rain and storms move in later today.
Have a nice Monday evening!