STP values valid 3PM on Monday off the NAM… Much of Alabama showing values of 5+. The big takeaway right now is we will ALL need to be highly "weather aware" Sunday into Monday. pic.twitter.com/aFT4142jVq
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) March 16, 2018
The meso sector of GOES-East includes the entirety of our local area today… Check out the 1 minute meso sector imagery showing the scattered showers around. So neat! pic.twitter.com/ByLW4rRnmm
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) March 16, 2018
Wet afternoon ahead for much of southwest Alabama & northwest Florida… HRRR model animation thru midnight screams RAIN. pic.twitter.com/6210sk8qK2
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) March 16, 2018
GROWING CONCERN ABOUT MONDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK
WHAT? Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will be possible on Monday across much of Alabama and the Deep South. Model guidance has quickly escalated this threat, and while there are uncertainties that we’ll need to sort through between now and then, even the “weaker” model solutions like the GFS show a potentially significant tornado threat.
WHEN? Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday across our area, but the significant severe weather risk likely happens on Monday. We’ll be able to get more specific with the severe weather timeframe this weekend, but I would suggest the greatest risk of tornadoes/severe weather across our area and in central/north Alabama will be Monday afternoon/evening.
WHERE? The Storm Prediction Center has west Alabama (Demopolis, Tuscaloosa, Livingston, Marion, Fayette, Butler, Gordo) in their Level 1 “marginal” severe weather risk valid for Sunday. The more significant severe weather risk happens on Monday and includes basically all of Alabama, northeastern Mississippi, central/southern Tennessee, and central/southern Georgia.
WHY? A surface area of low pressure to our northwest will be moving northeast late Sunday into Monday. A cold front will extend from this low southward into Texas. As the cold front approaches from the west, that will put all of Alabama and northwest Florida in the warm sector where strong to severe storms will be possible. Most likely, one or two clusters of storms will happen on Sunday into Sunday night. There is concern that supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes could happen Monday before the cold front moves through. After the passage of the front, cool, dry air will filter into our local area.
I’ll have updates throughout the weekend here in the RedZone Weather app and over on Facebook as well. If tornado warnings are required for any part of our primary coverage area, I’ll be streaming live across our platforms bringing you the very latest.
Let me know if you have questions. Again, specifics and details will come into focus this weekend.
