First look at the projected path for what will likely be Tropical Storm Florence later today or tomorrow… Early model indications point to a recurvimg out into the open waters of the Atlantic affecting NO land, but its way too early to know that with any confidence. pic.twitter.com/JOXQPsAMHA
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2018
NHC is calling this a “potential tropical cyclone” because tropical storm watches/warnings will be issued later today for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands… Basically, that means the system is on its way to quickly becoming a tropical storm. Note: This is a totally separate, distinct system from the one that could affect the Gulf of Mexico next week!
This is for the tropical wave moving off the African continent… https://t.co/eR5HkIlGsi
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 30, 2018
STORMS NORTH & SOUTH OF US… Several showers and thunderstorms are off to an early start this morning in Wilcox and Lowndes counties just to our north. We’re also monitoring storms just offshore from Pensacola Beach and Navarre.
Showers and storms will pop up across our area over the next several hours. Be ready for scattered downpours of heavy rain as we go into the afternoon hours!
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE TROPICS… The Atlantic basin is coming alive, with multiple areas of tropical concerns coming into focus over the next week or so. Today, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Seasonal conditions are ahead for the weekend with more scattered thunderstorms and plenty of heat and humidity. Again, the concern this morning has shifted to next week when multiple tropical systems could be happening across the Atlantic basin. Let’s talk details…
POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM IN GULF NEXT WEEK… As we first mentioned last evening, there is a low, yet increasing, chance that a tropical depression or tropical storm may form in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late next week. Uncertainties loom large, as this system is still about a week out, but several reliable models point to “tropical mischief” forming near the Florida Peninsula in the days ahead. Main headline on this Wednesday evening is that there is considerable uncertainty (thus absolutely no need for fear, panic, or stress), yet some weather models show a potential tropical storm affecting south Alabama and northwest Florida late next week.
EURO MODEL: TROPICAL STORM… The European (ECWMF) model continues to be the more “bullish” solution concerning this system. That means that out of most/all the models we look at on a daily basis, the intensity/track favors more impacts for south Alabama and northwest Florida. We note this morning, however, that the Euro has ramped down over the last couple of runs, AND is suggesting a more southerly track for this potential tropical system more in line with other models. This is good news, but again, plenty of uncertainty.
GFS MODEL: OPEN WAVE IN CENTRAL GULF… The Global Forecast System (GFS), an American model, has vehemently suggested a more southerly route for this system across the Gulf AND a weaker solution. The GFS suggests a tropical wave will move across the Florida Peninsula (south Florida, that is) this weekend and enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. The GFS then maintains the system as a tropical wave (and not a tropical storm) as it moves toward Texas/Louisiana later in the week. Obviously this would be a great scenario for our local area as very little in the way of direct impacts would happen.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION LIKELY NEAR AFRICA… The National Hurricane Center says there is a 60% chance that a tropical wave about to emerge from the African continent will develop into a tropical storm as it moves westward in the days ahead. Most global weather models indicate this system will recurve into the open waters of the Atlantic without it affecting land, but it’s very early in the forecast process. Further forecast refinements will be necessary.
FLURRY OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY AHEAD?… The ensemble members of the major global models have “flipped the switch” on hurricane season really coming alive over the next 2 weeks. In addition to the two previously discussed systems, the European model suggests some tropical activity forming north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. We’ll keep you posted as we enter what could be a very active September. (Generally, September is always the most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season with the climatological peak of the season being September 11.)
SCATTERED STORMS TODAY… All the activity/potential of the tropics has pushed the discussion about today’s weather way down in the post, so if you’re reading this far down, thank you! Our data shows only 30-40% people actually read this far down! Another day with high temperatures in the low-90s with scattered showers and thunderstorms is upcoming. Most of the storms will happen in the heat of the day between Noon and 7PM.
HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… I’ve put the rain chance on Friday at 50%, meaning approximately half of us will see rain before the end of the day on Friday. Storms should progressively fade after 6PM on Friday, but there inevitably will be some locales across the region that are wet at 7PM kickoff. Have a way to check the radar if you’re headed out to a football game on Friday evening. redzoneweather.com/radar is the link you can use OR you can tap the Radar tab in the RedZone Weather app.
APP ALERTS… Be sure to turn ON “Medium-Level Alerts” for the latest information about the tropical systems by visiting the Alerts tab (bottom right corner here in the RZWeather app) and tapping the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize which alerts you would like to receive from me.
JAY ELEMENTARY TODAY… I’m looking forward to discussing severe weather safety and talking about RedZone Weather and our wonderful sponsors with the 1st graders at Jay Elementary School in Jay, Florida today.
Let me know if you have any weather-related questions. More details are in the Thursday #rzw forecast video that will be posted shortly here in the RZWeather app… Have a great day!
