SHOWERS & STORMS… Numerous showers and thunderstorms are slowly drifting west across the region this evening. Nothing severe, but lightning output has been profuse across portions of Escambia County, AL.

IMPACTS FROM FLORENCE TO BEGIN THURSDAY IN CAROLINAS…
ISAAC: THE ONE FOR OUR AREA TO MONITOR CAREFULLY…
NEW SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORMS… Five active tropical systems in the Atlantic basin this evening! Yes, 5. Hurricane Florence is a major hurricane barreling toward coastal stretches of North Carolina and South Carolina. Tropical Storm Isaac is moving west with more details beginning to come into focus in the longer range. We’re also monitoring a tropical wave in the Gulf that has the potential to become a tropical storm before a Texas landfall, Hurricane Helene in the eastern Atlantic, AND newly-formed Subtropical Storm Joyce in the central Atlantic. Let’s talk details…

HURRICANE FLORENCE…

POWERFUL FLORENCE MOVING TOWARD CAROLINAS… Maximum winds are pegged at 130 mph and Florence is a dangerous category 3 major hurricane. Further intensification is in the forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center before the system makes landfall/gets close to the Carolina coastline. Don’t get so caught up in the category that you forget that this is a potentially catastrophic hurricane REGARDLESS of how strong it is. More details about specific impacts are outlined below.

AN URGENT MESSAGE FOR COASTAL CAROLINAS… This is a text copy from last night as the message remains exactly the same: If Florence makes landfall or approaches coastal sections of NC/SC as a major hurricane as expected, there will some coastal communities that are devastated. Some areas will likely be uninhabitable for weeks, if the scenario plays out as expected. I don’t say this to scare anyone at all. I’m not in the fear business and I don’t want to be, ever. I believe that knowledge is powerful and I say these two statements factually and directly as I hope it will empower people to LEAVE if you’re given an evacuation order. The fact is: If you’re involved in a Hurricane Warning in a coastal community in North Carolina or South Carolina, your life could potentially be in danger if you choose to stay near the immediate coastline. GET OUT if you’re given an evacuation order. Property can be replaced. YOU can’t!

HURRICANE & STORM SURGE WARNINGS… A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. This includes places like Myrtle Beach (SC), Wilmington (NC), Jacksonville (NC), Cape Fear, and Cape Hatteras. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. Extreme storm surge inundation will be possible in these areas. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

MAJOR FLOODING THREAT – NC/VA… The flood threat that will likely set up across eastern North Carolina and Virginia will be extreme. Some spots are likely to pick up 20-30” of rain as the core of Hurricane Florence will slow down drastically at landfall. We want hurricanes to move, and move quickly. This is unfortunately not how Florence will likely happen. The forward speed of the system will drastically decrease once landfall happens, causing rain amounts to spike quickly with an extreme flood threat. The greatest rain amounts will almost certainly happen along and east of the center of circulation.

HIGH WINDS NEAR THE COAST… Winds will be greatest near coastal areas where Florence makes landfall. Again, the highest danger zone is within 10 miles of the immediate coast. There absolutely still will be dangers inland, but in terms of storm surge and high winds, the *greatest* danger is near the coast.

ISOLATED TORNADOES LIKELY… There will inevitably be a few tornadoes involved with Hurricane Florence, especially on the right front side of the hurricane. This means that, most likely, eastern areas of North Carolina will have the highest tornado risk as Florence approaches and even after landfall. Know what to do and where to go if you have a tornado warning. We recommend getting on the lowest floor of a site-built structure, away from windows and doors when a tornado warning is in effect for your location.

HAVE A GOOD INFO SOURCE… RedZone Weather is designed for Alabama and northwest Florida. If you’re in North Carolina or South Carolina, find a good LOCAL source of information. National media outlets are often unable to provide data and insight for specific, smaller communities. One guy I recommend vehemently for folks in/near Charlotte, Brad Panovich. Let him be your “go to” guy if you’re in the western half of the Carolinas.

INVEST 95L/TROPICAL WAVE…

70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT… This information continues to be consistent from last night as well. The National Hurricane Center continues to suggest that there is a 70% chance of a tropical depression forming in the western Gulf of Mexico over the next 3 days. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing strong gusty winds over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form in the next day or two while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.

LOCAL IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED… All of the major global models suggest that this tropical wave, regardless of formal development, will move northwestward toward Texas. Obviously changes are possible, so we’ll need to watch this system carefully over the next 48 hours. Folks along the western Louisiana coast, the Texas coast, and northern Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC…

ISAAC A BIT WEAKER… Maximum winds near the center of Tropical Storm Isaac have decreased just a bit to 60 mph. Intensity fluctuations are expected over the next few days and Isaac will likely be a strong tropical storm as it crosses the Lesser Antilles over the next day or so.

ISAAC TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY… Out of all 5 tropical systems we’re tracking, Isaac is the one that has the highest potential of local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida despite being many days away from our local area right now. There is still a good bit of uncertainty in the intensity guidance, but several models are now suggesting that Isaac will make a northwesterly turn toward the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. We note that the ECMWF (Euro) model remains a “hold out” on this scenario, however. The Euro completely fades the system away in the days ahead. That would be the best case scenario. The big takeaway is we still don’t have good model suggestions of exactly where Isaac will end up, but there are now scenarios that bring the system into the southern Gulf. We’ll keep watching and bring you the very latest in the days ahead.

HURRICANE HELENE…

HELENE NOT A CONCERN… Hurricane Helene is moving over cooler waters and beginning to weaken. Maximum winds are at 85 mph. Helene will move north across the open waters of the Atlantic and fade away in the days ahead.

SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE…

JOYCE WELL AWAY FROM LAND… The National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce this afternoon, located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and Africa. The system will move to the northeast over the next few days and stay far away from land. No direct impacts are expected in North America. Good news!

SEASONAL WEATHER LOCALLY… The story remains the same in south Alabama and northwest Florida for the rest of this week into the weekend in that scattered pop-up thunderstorms are expected each day. High temperatures will be in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s. Storms will produce heavy rain and quite a bit of thunder and lightning. The good news is severe weather is not expected in our local area over the next 7 days.

APP… It’s been a busy few weeks here in the RedZone Weather app. We encourage everyone in south Alabama and northwest Florida to take a look at the “Alerts” tab and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.

EVENING VIDEO SCHEDULE CONTINUES… Long-time RedZone Weather viewers/readers know that I usually post a morning video around 7:15AM each day. We’re operating a bit differently this week with videos being posted in the 7PM hour and a morning graphic/update around 7:15AM. We’ll get back to the normal schedule soon. Thanks for watching and supporting RedZone Weather! Let me know if you have questions. Have a nice evening!