SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY

THURSDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK… RZW Exec partners, good evening! The severe weather risk continues to evolve and set up for Thursday, November 1. Much of Wednesday will be dry and nice for Halloween/trick-or-treaters across the region. There could be an isolated shower or two in Clarke, Choctaw, Washington, and Mobile counties in west Alabama, but vast majority of our region will be warm and dry on Wednesday. The severe weather potential is in place for Thursday, particularly during the daytime hours. A few tornadoes will be possible, but clearly the greatest risk will be due to damaging straight line winds capable of knocking down a few trees across the region.

NOTE ABOUT RISK LEVELS… I would strongly encourage everyone to not get so caught up in the risk numbers/colors and instead focus on the potential impacts (which in this case are damaging straight line winds and isolated, brief tornadoes). Most public questions I get in situations like this have to do with the risk number/color. There IS a chance SPC will up this risk to a Level 3/enhanced/orange risk in their overnight update, but the impacts likely won’t change that much. The one caveat to this statement is IF the tornado parameters rise for potential isolated supercell thunderstorms out ahead of the main line of storms. THAT could be a potential “game changer,” but for now, the overall risk of supercell storms seems pretty low. Good news. We’ll keep monitoring trends and alert you during the daytime hours of Wednesday, if need be.

TIMING OF STORMS… There is high confidence at this point that the greatest chance of severe weather, including the risk of a few brief tornadoes, will happen between 9AM and 5PM on Thursday in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. The severe weather risk will end behind the squall line from west to east. The timing/risk levels is depicted in the graphic below.

TIMING & RISK LEVELS

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… A QLCS/squall line will move into southwest Alabama late in the morning hours of Thursday. Damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms and maybe a brief, spin-up tornado or two will be the main concerns. A widespread, damaging severe weather/tornado outbreak seems unlikely as of now. Widespread flash flooding issues should be limited as the storms will be racing to the east at a rapid clip. 1-3″ of rain is likely areawide.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… Our public messaging will continue today, tonight, and all day on Wednesday about this severe weather potential for Thursday. My next update for RZW Exec members will be posted here in the Tactical Ops Room by 5PM on Wednesday, October 31 (tomorrow). Please let me know if you have any specific questions or concerns. Have a great evening!

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