STORMS ON MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday afternoon! There will be a low-end risk of strong to severe storms on Monday, mainly between 2PM and 8PM, for areas along and west of the Alabama River in west Alabama. The Storm Prediction Center has much of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, and Mobile counties under their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone valid for Monday into the evening hours. Clearly, the better dynamics with this weather system will be to our north in the northwestern corner of Alabama. Below is the text I’ll be using in today’s video update. Let me know if you have any questions or concerns!

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ON MONDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the western part of our local area in their low-end, Level 1 marginal severe weather risk valid for Monday. The greater chance of severe storms will happen across the northwest corner of Alabama and in northeast Mississippi where the Level 2 slight risk is in place.

LEVEL 2 RISK TO OUR NORTH… Communities along and west of Interstate 59 in northwest Alabama are included in the standard slight risk zone to potentially see a few stronger storms on Monday into Monday evening. Huntsville, Cullman, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Hartselle, Double Springs, Aliceville, Hamilton, Jasper, Russellville have the greatest chance of severe weather on Monday. The greatest risk will be damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms. An isolated tornado or two will be possible as well.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA LOCALLY… If any strong to severe thunderstorms happen in south Alabama or northwest Florida, they will likely happen WEST of Interstate 65 as a cold front approaches on Monday into Monday evening. For our local area, the following communities are involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone: Thomasville, Monroeville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Chatom, Fruitdale, Vinegar Bend, Leroy, Citronelle, Wilmer, and Mt. Vernon. The Level 1 risk zone extends northeast into central Alabama as well. Butler, Demopolis, Tuscaloosa, Camden, Selma, Prattville, Clanton, Birmingham, Talladega, Anniston, Gadsden, Ft. Payne, and Centre are all included in the low-end risk zone.

FOR COMMUNITIES TO THE EAST… Storms will likely be weakening pretty considerably by the time they get to the communities along and EAST of I-65 in our local area on Monday. This is the “General Thunderstorm” zone as outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center, aka the areas that don’t have a formal severe weather risk. Yes, there will be thunder and lightning at times, but the overall severe weather risk is much lower. Mobile, Pensacola, the Eastern Shore, Brewton, Evergreen, Greenville, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Destin, Crestview, Milton, Century, Atmore, Poarch, Bay Minette, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Gulf Breeze.

CONTINUING COVERAGE… This will be the final RZW Exec update issued for this event as we will transition to our public coverage. Be sure to check with me in the main area of the RedZone Weather app on Monday for updates. Again, let me know if there is anything specific I can help you with if you need weather-related decision support. Have a great evening!

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MORE STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday evening! This is a brief update to give you an early heads up that we may have another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms (in addition to potentially 2-4″ of additional rainfall) on Monday, December 31. Model data has been inconsistent, so it’s not feasible for me to provide potential details just yet. The big takeaway is that under some model scenarios, we may have another round of active weather on Monday. Early indications point to a morning event, but since there is so much uncertainty, I would take that with a proverbial “grain of salt.” Details will become more clear this weekend.

ACTIVE MORNING FOR WEST ALABAMA… A major flash flood event happened over southeast Mississippi and west Alabama this morning, with some spots picking up 15 INCHES OF RAIN in less than 12 hours. We also had one tornado warning in Washington County this morning around 3:00AM. Here is the archive of our live streaming coverage if you’d like to go back and see it. The event on Monday could potentially be similar, in that the biggest risk may happen due to training showers and thunderstorms that produce extreme rainfall amounts.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… I’ll have the latest on the Monday severe weather potential posted here in Tactical Ops by 5PM on Sunday evening. No major weather issues, other than patchy areas of dense fog and ongoing flooding, are expected through then. Let me know if you have any questions. Enjoy your weekend!

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