SNOW ACCUMULATION FIRST FORECAST; BLACK ICE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT… Tuesday, January 29 will likely be the first “snow day” that parts of our local area have had in quite some time. While there is still a high chance that much of our area will NOT have snow accumulation, west Alabama will likely be our local focus points for the area that have some accumulation. Snowflakes and flurries (with no accumulation or real impact) is what much of our area will have. Much of northwest Florida and southeast Alabama will have rain with very little in the way of snow/flurries. This is still very much an evolving forecast with high UNCERTAINTY, as are most “southern snow” events. Please continue to check back with me on Sunday and over the next few days in the lead-up to this event as more clarity will arrive with more forecast model data.

THE SNOW SITUATION ON TUESDAY… Rain showers will likely begin late Monday evening. Rain chances increase overnight into Tuesday morning. This will be a very cold rain with temperatures holding steady in the low-40s. There will be a (likely brief) change over from rain to sleet and ultimately snow during the late morning hours of Tuesday, first over west Alabama. The rain/snow line will progressively move east throughout the afternoon on Tuesday. There is some indication that dry air moving in behind the powerful cold front may overtake the layers of the atmosphere that are more moist and conducive for “snow-making.” If this happens, obviously snow would be more limited. On the contrary, there’s also a chance that we could have a few hours of light snow over west Alabama that spread eastward toward the I-65 corridor and beyond.

SNOW/MIX TIMING… Rain will be in progress Tuesday morning. The change over to snow will happen across west Alabama between 9AM and 1PM. This rain/snow line will move eastward and will likely reach places near Interstate 65 in the early afternoon hours. Snow/flurries will end from west to east in the early evening hours of Tuesday.

POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS… This is information that most people care about: Impacts, aka how it affects YOU. While there could be a light dusting of snow across Clarke, Monroe, Wilcox, Choctaw, and Washington counties in west Alabama (and points north), accumulation is much less likely across other counties in our region. Local roadways and bridges could potentially be affected by ice and snow buildup across these counties on Tuesday from late morning extending into Wednesday. For communities along, south, and east of the Interstate 65 corridor, the main concern won’t be snow/ice accumulation as much as it will be the potential for black ice that builds up on area roadways Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES… Winter storms and snow are two of the most difficult things we deal with in the weather forecast world for the Deep South. This is due, in part, to the relative infrequent nature of these systems. We don’t have a lot of good analogs to compare the atmosphere to in these situations. I say that very directly to say that this remains a LOW CONFIDENCE forecast. There can and will be changes that we need to make over the next few days. Please continue to check with me as we update the latest information. You can always get the latest info I post across social media and on our website in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download.

NEXT UPDATE… My next #rzw forecast video will be posted by 2PM on Sunday afternoon. Let me know if you have specific questions and I’ll do my best to give you the best information we have as of right now.

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

SUNNY, COOL WEEKEND; BRIEF UPDATE ON SNOW POTENTIAL… Plenty of sunshine is expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida today and on Sunday. High temperatures will only peak around 59° today across the region. We continue to have quite a bit of forecast uncertainty on Tuesday when the northern half (inland areas) of our region could potentially have a changeover from rain to snow or mixed precipitation. Let’s look at a few more details…

TEMPS NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING… Most spots will fall to around 32° by 6AM on Sunday under clear skies. This will be the last night at or below freezing until Tuesday night/Wednesday morning when most of us could be in the low- to mid-20s! More details about the extreme cold potential for next week below.

RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY; SNOW POSSIBLE… Our local area will be dry until at least Monday afternoon. Rain chances will slightly increase on Monday ahead of a significant (70-80%) chance of rain setting up for Tuesday morning as a cold front moves by. Major global weather models continue to indicate that there could be a changeover from rain to sleet followed by snow late Tuesday morning across inland counties of south Alabama. There are big questions at this point as to just how fast the dry air behind the cold front will be moving and how much moisture will be involved with this system. Until we get more model agreement, we will continue to advertise a 10-20% chance of snow for inland parts of south Alabama. Accumulation impacts are still to be determined. If you’re looking for a higher chance of snow, you’ll have to go to north Alabama or Tennessee where accumulating snow is highly likely.

BITTER COLD FOR EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK… Our local area will likely have an overnight low around 22° by Wednesday morning as a big ridge of high pressure builds in from the north. The latest model guidance continues to show much of the midwestern U.S. in subzero temperatures during the middle of next week. This could potentially be the coldest air we’ve had so far this season for much of the eastern half of the continental United States. We’ll keep you posted on just how low temperatures are expected to go over the next few days. We’ll also have the latest info on the snow potential in the RedZone Weather app.

Let me know if you have any weather-related questions. Have a great weekend!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

COLD OVERNIGHT AHEAD… Most spots across south Alabama and northwest Florida have dipped into the upper-30s as of 9PM. A very cold morning is ahead. Most spots, especially north of I-10, will drop below freezing. Some spots across Clarke, Butler, Conecuh, Monroe, and Covington counties will be in the upper-20s by 6AM.

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!

SMALL, YET GROWING, CHANCE FOR SNOW/MIX ON TUESDAY… While there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast in the 4-5 day range, it seems reasonable based on the latest model trends to start mentioning a small chance of snow or mixed precipitation across the interior of south Alabama valid for Tuesday, January 29. I can’t stress enough that further forecast refinements WILL be necessary, and there is still a medium-high chance that the entire area on Tuesday may have RAIN with no mix/snow. Again, still a lot that we don’t know just yet, but here is what we do know as of Friday afternoon…

RAIN FIRST, THEN A CHANGEOVER TO MIX AND SNOW… There is confidence in the *overall* weather pattern setup for Tuesday. A strong cold front will dive to the southeast across Alabama, northwest Florida, and the Deep South, ushering in very cold air from the north. All too often this time of year, the devil is in the details and we just are not able to be super specific at this point. Most major weather models, including the American-based Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European (ECMWF), suggest that most areas will see rain during the morning hours of Tuesday. Some areas, especially over north and central Alabama will (perhaps briefly) see a change over to a wintry mix followed by some snow. The big question mark for our area at this point is just how far south we have mixed precipitation and/or snow. Based on this context, please see our official forecast below…

LOW SNOW CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH ALABAMA… We will suggest a 20 percent chance of mixed precipitation and/or snow for our inland counties on Tuesday. That is a 1 in 5 chance that parts of Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, Monroe, Conecuh, Butler, Covington, and Crenshaw counties has snow/mix on Tuesday. Note that it is far too early to suggest whether or not accumulation will happen in these areas. Odds are (at this point) no accumulation will happen, but no one, and I mean NO ONE, knows for sure. We’ve also outlined a part of our area in a lower, 10% chance zone for snow/mix valid for Tuesday, including the northern parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties, Escambia County (AL), and southern Covington County. Snow/mix chances for coastal areas remains very, very low for now.

REGARDLESS OF SNOW/MIX, RAIN IS LIKELY… This won’t be a situation where we have simply cloudy skies followed by snow. Regardless of if a given location has any snow/mix, rain is likely beforehand with a potential (brief) changeover. Thunderstorms are not expected as this rain moves in late Monday into Tuesday.

VERY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT… Regardless of if snow/mix happens locally (or not), this will almost certainly be the coldest air the Deep South has had this season. Overnight lows across inland areas of south Alabama could easily fall into the mid-20s with some spots falling to around 20°. We note that parts of the midwestern U.S. will be below zero Wednesday morning as a large area of high pressure builds in from Canada. Very cold air!

APP ALERTS… We will continue to monitor the snow potential setting up for Tuesday over the weekend and bring you the latest via the RedZone Weather app. Once you the RZW app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a good Friday evening!

Tap below to support this RZW sponsor!