The center of Tropical Storm #Dorian reformed a bit farther north than previous fixes… See what that means for the overall forecast here: https://t.co/Aq5Zpo2CL3 pic.twitter.com/CD2Jqi196J
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 27, 2019
LIGHTNING OUTPUT INCREASE… Storms continue to increase in coverage across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rain is happening across the Pensacola metro, near Brewton, East Brewton, Riverview, Jay, Berrydale, Atmore, Poarch, Crestview, Baker, Georgiana, Stapleton, Saraland, Satsuma, and Prichard as of 1PM. Storms are under severe limits, but we note that lightning output has increased across the area over the last 30 minutes.
NEXT FEW HOURS… Storms will continue to slowly move southeast over the next 3-5 hours. The severe weather risk remains very low. Storms will fade away after sunset.
Storms continue to pop up and drift southeast today… Be ready for scattered downpours over the next few hours! Severe weather risk remains near nil. pic.twitter.com/HzSMU7gRIW
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) August 27, 2019
DORIAN LIKELY TO IMPACT FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec partners, good Tuesday afternoon to each of you. Tropical Storm Dorian is moving northwest in the eastern Caribbean Sea. There is high confidence in the track forecast, as far as where Dorian is headed. There is *VERY* low confidence in the intensity forecast, as far as just how strong or how weak Dorian will be in 3-5 days. Basically, the National Hurricane Center is “splitting the difference” between the dynamical model output and intensity model guidance. The dynamical models show a much weaker system moving into the Florida Peninsula this weekend. The intensity guidance shows a category 1, 2, or 3 hurricane moving into the Florida Peninsula this weekend. Obviously the impacts in those two scenarios are quite different. We will have a much better grasp about the future intensity of Dorian after the system moves by Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA… It is far too early to know IF Dorian will cause local impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida. At the moment, based on the latest model data, it seems like any impacts will remain to the east of our local area, but that is ONE idea subject to change over the next few days. We all need to closely monitor this system carefully in the days ahead.
Let me know if you have any questions, concerns, or decision support needs. Have a great Tuesday evening!
