TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE, BUT NO ISSUES LOCALLY; HOT TEMPS CONTINUE… Hot temperatures and sunshine will be the lead weather story on this Wednesday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. While there may be one or two showers between 2PM and 7PM, I expect vast majority of us to remain dry and hot today. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s in most spots. We continue to monitor Tropical Storms Jerry, Karen, and Lorenzo and one tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf this morning. Let’s look at details…

HOT, DRY DAYS AHEAD… Temperatures will remain well above our climatological norms for this time of year over the next 5-7 days. I’m not seeing anything in the near-term that would suggest cooler temperatures being on the way. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-90s Friday into the weekend with morning lows around 70°.

TROPICAL STORM KAREN NOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO… Gusty winds and heavy rain affected parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands last night as the core of Tropical Storm Karen moved by. Karen has emerged over the southwestern Atlantic and continues to move northward at 10 miles per hour. Maximum winds are at 45 mph. Karen will likely strengthen somewhat in the days ahead as it moves north and then drastically slows down over the open Atlantic. A southwesterly turn is expected in about 4 days as Karen remains to the south of a big ridge of high pressure. This large area of high pressure will likely move Karen westward toward the Turks & Caicos islands or the southern Bahamas. There is still considerable uncertainty as to what ultimately happens with Karen. Some models show an entry into the southern Gulf while many others show Karen moving north well east of Florida. It is still too soon to rule out U.S. impacts, but the trends have been encouraging in the last 24 hours. We’ll keep watching.

DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center says there is a 10-20% chance of a tropical storm forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico in the area known as the Bay of Campeche. This will be a rainmaker for parts of eastern Mexico. No direct impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida are expected regardless of formal development.

TROPICAL STORM JERRY AFFECTING BERMUDA TODAY… A Tropical Storm Warning continues for Bermuda today as the center of Tropical Storm Jerry is expected to pass near or just to the north of the island. Jerry remains somewhat disorganized, with much of the convection being displaced to the east of the center of circulation. After Jerry passes by Bermuda today, the system will move eastward into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and become post-tropical in about 3-4 days. No direct U.S. impacts are expected because of Jerry.

LORENZO POISED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE… Tropical Storm Lorenzo is located west of the Cabo Verde Islands and well east of the Lesser Antilles in the eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean. The system is expected to become a hurricane today and a major hurricane in about 2-3 days. Lorenzo will likely remain far away from land areas while it is a tropical system. The system will probably recurve into the open waters of the Atlantic before becoming extratropical. No direct U.S. impacts are expected because of Lorenzo.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FORECASTS… Each week, we provide a brief summary of our local college football matchups when the weather isn’t quite active locally. See details below.

ALABAMA VS. OLE MISS… The Alabama Crimson Tide will play the Ole Miss Rebels at 2:30PM CDT on Saturday. The game will be in Tuscaloosa and will be televised on ESPN2. Sunny skies will be in place with HOT temperatures. Game time temperatures start around 95°. Unfortunately, temperatures will probably remain in the 90s for the duration of the game.

AUBURN VS. MISSISSIPPI STATE… Auburn takes on Mississippi State at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn on Saturday. The game will air on ESPN starting at 6PM CDT. There is a tiny (0-10%) chance of rain, but I expect much of the game to be dry and hot. Temperatures start around 90°, falling into the low-80s by the end of the game.

TROY VS. ARKANSAS STATE… Kickoff for the Troy game is slated for 5PM CDT on Saturday as the Trojans do battle with Arkansas State. The game will be streamed online on ESPN+ and aired on the Troy Sports Radio Network. Rain chances remain very low (0-10%) with temperatures expected to be near 90° at the beginning of the game. Temperatures will fall into the upper-70s by the end of the game.

SOUTH ALABAMA AT UL MONROE… The Jaguars of South Alabama will travel to Monroe, Louisiana this weekend to take on the ULM Warhawks. That game is scheduled for a 6PM kickoff on Saturday with a webcast on ESPN+. There is a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours in that part of Louisiana on Saturday. Lightning delays will be possible. Temperatures at kickoff will be near 84° falling into the upper-70s by the end of the game.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the graphics and details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

RECORD HEAT AHEAD TO START OCTOBER… Please don’t shoot the messenger! Unfortunately for the many folks across Alabama and northwest Florida begging for relief from the heat, I do not have good news to report this evening. There is a very high chance (70-80%) that we’ll have temperatures well above average as we go into the last days of September and first week of October. Temperatures are slated to be in the upper-90s for afternoon highs later this week. Other than a small (10-20%) chance of rain on Wednesday, the next 7 days look dry. The one consolation prize is: The same weather feature keeping us hot and dry is keeping all of the tropical mischief away from the Gulf Coast. Let’s look at a few details…

BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING US HOT… A large dome of high pressure continues to park itself over parts of the Carolinas and southern Appalachian Mountains. High pressure often means good, sunny weather, but in this case it also means big time heat. High temperatures this time of year locally should be in the mid- to upper-80s. We’ll be in the mid- to upper-90s over the next several days, however. Overnight lows should be near 60°, but instead will be near 70° in most spots.

TROPICAL STORM KAREN CROSSING INTO ATLANTIC… The broad circulation of Tropical Storm Karen is moving out of the northern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Atlantic Ocean this evening. Tropical storm warnings continue for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Karen is expected to remain a tropical storm as it moves north in the next 3-4 days. As we go into next week, Karen may turn to the west taking aim at the Turks & Caicos islands. The good news for our local area is that the big ridge of high pressure should act as a blocker of sorts to any tropical activity, likely keeping Karen far away from our area.

LOW IN SOUTHERN GULF… There is a 20% chance of tropical storm formation in the Bay of Campeche, aka the southern Gulf of Mexico, over the next few days as an area of low pressure moves westward. This area of low pressure will be a rainmaker for Mexico regardless of formal development. No local issues are expected in Alabama or northwest Florida from this tropical disturbance.

LORENZO & JERRY STAY AWAY… Tropical Storm Jerry will move by Bermuda on Wednesday and out to sea later this week. Tropical Storm Lorenzo is gaining strength in the eastern Atlantic with maximum winds of 65 mph. Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane and probably a major hurricane in about 5 days as it moves northwest. Lorenzo is expected to remain far away from land areas.

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download our free RedZone Weather app. Social networks don’t guarantee that you will see our forecast content or urgent warnings. That is why we have the RZW app available for you. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me. We encourage everyone to turn on “Medium-Level Alerts.” If you like a lot of notifications, turn on Low-Level Alerts too.

I’ll have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday. See you then!