RECORD HEAT AHEAD TO START OCTOBER… Please don’t shoot the messenger! Unfortunately for the many folks across Alabama and northwest Florida begging for relief from the heat, I do not have good news to report this evening. There is a very high chance (70-80%) that we’ll have temperatures well above average as we go into the last days of September and first week of October. Temperatures are slated to be in the upper-90s for afternoon highs later this week. Other than a small (10-20%) chance of rain on Wednesday, the next 7 days look dry. The one consolation prize is: The same weather feature keeping us hot and dry is keeping all of the tropical mischief away from the Gulf Coast. Let’s look at a few details…
BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING US HOT… A large dome of high pressure continues to park itself over parts of the Carolinas and southern Appalachian Mountains. High pressure often means good, sunny weather, but in this case it also means big time heat. High temperatures this time of year locally should be in the mid- to upper-80s. We’ll be in the mid- to upper-90s over the next several days, however. Overnight lows should be near 60°, but instead will be near 70° in most spots.
TROPICAL STORM KAREN CROSSING INTO ATLANTIC… The broad circulation of Tropical Storm Karen is moving out of the northern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Atlantic Ocean this evening. Tropical storm warnings continue for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Karen is expected to remain a tropical storm as it moves north in the next 3-4 days. As we go into next week, Karen may turn to the west taking aim at the Turks & Caicos islands. The good news for our local area is that the big ridge of high pressure should act as a blocker of sorts to any tropical activity, likely keeping Karen far away from our area.
LOW IN SOUTHERN GULF… There is a 20% chance of tropical storm formation in the Bay of Campeche, aka the southern Gulf of Mexico, over the next few days as an area of low pressure moves westward. This area of low pressure will be a rainmaker for Mexico regardless of formal development. No local issues are expected in Alabama or northwest Florida from this tropical disturbance.
LORENZO & JERRY STAY AWAY… Tropical Storm Jerry will move by Bermuda on Wednesday and out to sea later this week. Tropical Storm Lorenzo is gaining strength in the eastern Atlantic with maximum winds of 65 mph. Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane and probably a major hurricane in about 5 days as it moves northwest. Lorenzo is expected to remain far away from land areas.
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I’ll have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday. See you then!