TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF ISAIAS… Tropical Storm Isaias is surviving its impact today with the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, meaning the system will likely strengthen over the next few days as it moves over The Bahamas. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center now calls for Isaias to become a hurricane this weekend as it moves near or perhaps just east of the Florida Peninsula in the Atlantic Ocean. The latest forecast calls for potential impacts in South Carolina and North Carolina early next week when Isaias will probably be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane. Confidence continues to grow and is now overall very high that no impacts from Isaias will happen in Alabama or northwest Florida. This will very likely be an “East Coast system.” A few Thursday evening forecast notes are below…

NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH… The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east (Atlantic) coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet. That basically is from Vero Beach southward to Homestead, including Miami, Miami Beach, Hialeah, Hollywood, Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Coral Springs, Boca Raton, West Palm Beach, Jupiter, Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, and surrounding areas.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS… All of the islands in The Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos are now under a Tropical Storm Warning. All of the coastline of the Dominican Republic and the northern coastline of Haiti are also under a Tropical Storm Warning.

SURVIVING HISPANIOLA MIGHT SIGNAL A STRONGER SYSTEM SOON… The fact that Tropical Storm Isaias has been able to basically survive and be in tact with a new center of circulation likely forming on the northern side of Hispaniola in the southern Atlantic might indicate that the system is a bit more robust and steady than previously realized. There is a good chance that the system will strengthen over the next 2-3 days and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the official intensity forecast from NHC be revised slightly higher soon. Southwesterly shear may help to mitigate rapid strengthening in 2-3 days, but overall, there is now a high chance that Isaias will be a hurricane as it approaches the southern part of Florida. A Hurricane Watch will likely be needed tomorrow for South Florida and eventually for parts of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast as Isaias approaches.

LOCALLY, WE’RE DRY AND HOT… Pop-up thunderstorms have not materialized today locally as expected. We knew that rain coverage would be less than previous days but so far, storms have not happened. There is a 20-30% chance over the next few hours that some areas across south Alabama and northwest Florida will have a few showers and storms, but we may have to knock that chance down to zero soon depending on radar trends. I’ll have updates as needed in the RedZone Weather app. Tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday are expected to be dry and hot with high temperatures in the mid-90s with plenty of sunshine.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a great Thursday evening!

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ISOLATED STORMS AROUND TODAY; TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS NEAR PUERTO RICO… Today will serve as somewhat of a transition day as we move away from very high rain chance days to lower rain chances this weekend. We’ll call it a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on this Thursday. Most of the showers and storms will happen after 1PM. A few stronger storms may produce torrential downpours, loud thunder, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. Severe weather is not expected today, however. We continue to monitor Tropical Storm Isaias, currently located near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the northeast Caribbean Sea. “Potential Tropical Cyclone #9” was finally upgraded to Isaias last night at 10PM now that a low-level circulation center has formed. Isaias will move northwest toward The Bahamas today and tomorrow, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Isaias is expected to be very near the U.S. East Coast in the days ahead, with local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida NOT expected at this time.

STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY… Compared to the last few days, there should be far fewer in the way of showers and thunderstorms across our region this afternoon into this evening. There still will inevitably be isolated pop-up thunderstorms in progress this evening, but the overall coverage will be less. High temperatures today will be a bit warmer than previous days since our area won’t have as many clouds around. Highs will be in the 85-89° range in most spots. I’ll have radar updates posted as needed today in the RedZone Weather app.

MOSTLY SUNNY & HOT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY… We get a much-needed break from the endless supply of rain on Friday into Saturday. Rain chances will be in the 0-10% chance range on Friday as the plume of moisture from the Gulf takes a temporary break. Plenty of sunshine is in store on both Friday and Saturday. Grab the sunscreen if you’re headed to a local beach, creek/river, or pool as the UV Index will be excessively high.

MORE SHOWERS & STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return on Sunday into Monday. I expect storms to be widely spaced and there is a good chance that most spots will be without rain each day. High temperatures will remain in the 90s with morning lows in the low-70s.

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS NEAR PUERTO RICO… The system formerly known as INVEST 92L and then Potential Tropical Cyclone #9 has finally become Tropical Storm Isaias now that a low-level circulation has formed in the Caribbean Sea. Isaias is expected to move over or just north of Hispaniola today, and there is a high chance the island’s rugged terrain will really do a number on the system and rip it apart. The center of Isaias may reform tonight in the Atlantic just north of Hispaniola. The system, regardless of whether it is significantly affected by Hispaniola, will continue rapidly moving northwest at 15-20 mph tonight and tomorrow. This means that tropical storm conditions are likely in the Turks & Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas tonight into Friday. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows a 65 mph tropical storm approaching the southern part of Florida near Homestead, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Pompano Beach. The NHC forecast takes Isaias northward toward Jacksonville before lurching northeast toward the Carolinas early next week. I would suggest confidence in this idea is growing rather quickly, thus folks in the Florida Peninsula (NOT the Panhandle where we are) should really be watching this system carefully. I don’t *think* explosive development will happen as we have dry air AND atmospheric shear ahead of the system as it approaches Florida, but we all know sometimes tropical systems can misbehave and have some surprises in store. Good confidence in this point in the track guidance, however. Breathe easier if you’re in the local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Looks like Isaias will completely miss our area to the east!

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MANY AREAS… A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the following places: Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the entire southern and northern coastlines of the Dominican Republic, the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, the Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. We also note a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini. A Tropical Storm Watch will be required tonight or tomorrow for parts of south Florida, potentially including the Florida Keys and areas near Miami.

GULF & TROPICAL ATLANTIC QUIET, FOR NOW… The Gulf of Mexico and the remainder of the tropical Atlantic (east of and behind Tropical Storm Isaias) are quiet with the National Hurricane Center noting that no other tropical storms are forecast to develop over the next 3-5 days. There are a few tropical waves near the African continent but NHC suggests those waves are unlikely to develop due to ongoing dry air to the north of each wave. Good news!

APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

See all the graphics and details in your Thursday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

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PTC#9, AKA ISAIAS, LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA… The large tropical wave we’ve been tracking over the last several days that was in the Atlantic Ocean has now crossed into the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system has taken the designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone #9, but for the sake of simplicity, it is helpful to think of this system as basically a tropical depression. This system has clearly struggled to organize over the last few days and a low-level center of circulation has yet to form. That is officially why the system is not a tropical storm (or a classified tropical depression) just yet. The system IS producing tropical storm force winds near the U.S and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. While there are still plenty of questions that we just don’t know the answer to just yet, confidence is now much higher that impacts from PTC#9 (aka what will likely be Tropical Storm Isaias soon) will likely never happen in Alabama or northwest Florida. There is also high confidence that this system will be some type of issue (magnitude unknown) for the East Coast of the United States. Let’s look at what we know on this Wednesday evening…

LOCAL IMPACTS IN SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA ARE UNLIKELY… First things first, let me be clear that there is good confidence this evening that whatever becomes of this system, big impacts for south Alabama and northwest Florida are now unlikely. This is not a complete all clear just yet, but this is a “breathe easier tonight as confidence is pretty high that this system will never bring impacts to our local area.” Why is this? A few reasons… 1) The overall trend (and I don’t mean the microscale trends, I mean the overarching ideas here) have been that this system would likely be an issue for the East Coast of the United States. That has been a consistent theme of this system since it emerged off the African coast several days ago. 2) The upper air pattern over Alabama and northwest Florida don’t exactly suggest we would have impacts EVEN IF the system makes it into the eastern Gulf. A large trough in the jet stream will be moving into our area this weekend. This trough (and a big ridge of high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic) will act to steer PTC#9/Isaias to the north and ultimately northeast early next week. 3) Let’s hypothetically say the system moves into the Gulf this weekend and skirts northward along the current eastern side of the cone of uncertainty. In that scenario, most (if not all) of the impacts of the system would be over the Florida Peninsula (not the Panhandle) and on the eastern side of the system. Our area, in that scenario, would be on the west side of the system with an offshore flow. Big takeaway here is that confidence is high (and growing) that local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida are now unlikely.

UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS, BUT GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL MOTION… Once Potential Tropcial Cyclone #9 forms a low-level center of circulation, models will be able to have a better grasp of future motion. Keep in mind, there absolutely IS still a possibility that PTC#9/Isaias is ripped apart by the high terrain of Haiti and the Dominican Republic (Hispaniola) and perhaps Cuba if the system takes a more southerly track. Most models today have trended toward the idea of potentially forming a low-level center north of Hispaniola with a stronger system moving into The Bahamas and ultimately moving near or east of the Florida Peninsula and south Florida. There is high confidence in the general motion of the system moving WNW or NW for the next day or so. Interests in Hispaniola, The Bahamas, the Turks & Caicos, Cuba, and the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of this developing system. I would suggest too that interests in the Carolinas and the entire Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. closely watch this system as there is a growing degree of confidence of potential East Coast impacts.

REST OF THE TROPICS ARE QUIET… The Gulf of Mexico and the remainder of the tropical Atlantic basin are quiet with no new tropical storms expected to develop (outside of PTC#9/Isaias). Tropical waves emerging from Africa are in a hostile, unfavorable environment for intensification over the next several days. Good news!

LESS IN THE WAY OF STORMS ON THURSDAY… Unrelated to the tropics, we’ll have isolated showers and thunderstorms around south Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday, BUT I do expect storms to be more isolated in nature meaning more of us should have sunshine throughout the day. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

My next detailed forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Thursday morning. I’ll have the latest information on PTC#9/Isaias and a look at what you can expect this weekend locally. See you then!

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STORMS IN CLARKE & WASHINGTON COUNTIES… Heavy rain is happening along the U.S. Highway 84 corridor near Grove Hill, Whatley, Gosport, and Suggsville in Clarke County this evening. This storm is producing quite a bit of lightning near the Old Line Road. Storms are also producing heavy rain across the northern half of Washington County near Chatom, Yarbo, Jordan, and St. Stephens. These storms will move into Leroy and Jackson shortly.

Showers and storms will fade across the region over the next few hours as we lose daytime heat content in the atmopshere.

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NEW STORMS IN WEST ALABAMA… While scattered showers continue across the eastern part of our region as the first batch of rain fades away, new storms are firing across parts of Clarke, Washington, Mobile, and Baldwin counties this evening. Very heavy rain is happening along the U.S. Highway 45 corridor near Deer Park, Citronelle, and Gulf Crest. Storms have also popped up near Prichard, Downtown Mobile, and Jackson.

These storms will move east over the next few hours. Severe weather is not expected, but some of the storms may be loud at times with very heavy rain being possible.

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HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE CONECUH RIVER… Loud storms producing heavy rain continue along the US29 corridor from Brewton to Andalusia. At the moment, the strongest storm is happening near Pleasant Home, Rome, and Carolina in Covington County. This storm is moving east at about 30 mph. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning will continue across much of Covington, Conecuh, and Escambia (AL) counties over the next 30-45 minutes.

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