RAIN & STORMS MOVE OUT TODAY; COOLER TEMPS AHEAD… Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue to move to the east today and most spots across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will be dry by the early evening hours. Temperatures will peak a bit earlier than usual today, most likely around Noon, as cooler, drier air moves in behind the cold front later this afternoon. Highs will again be in the upper-60s and near 70, but temperatures will fall into the 50s just after sunset this evening. Thursday will be much cooler than the last few days with highs only in the 50s. This weekend will feature increasingly warm (again!) temperatures with increasing rain chances on Sunday. Let’s look at a few more forecast details, below.

CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY… Skies will clear from west to east on Thursday with mostly sunny skies expected by the early afternoon hours. There could be a few lingering areas of clouds on Thursday morning. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid-50s, which is climatologically where we should be in late January for afternoon highs.

NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING… Friday morning will be quite chilly, with lows near or just below the freezing mark in many spots. There is a good chance some locales like Beatrice, Thomasville, Forest Home, and Greenville will dip into the upper-20s on Friday morning. Temperatures will quickly rebound to near 60 by the afternoon hours. Full sunshine is likely on Friday.

INCREASINGLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY… Clouds will begin to increase in coverage across the area on Saturday ahead of our next rain chance setting up late Saturday night into early Sunday. The daytime hours of Saturday are expected to be dry, however. Highs on Saturday will surge into the mid- to upper-60s.

RAIN RETURNS ON SUNDAY… Showers will become likely again on Sunday as an area of low pressure passes well to the north of our area. A trailing cold front will move by most likely on Sunday afternoon.

COOL START TO NEXT WEEK… Cool, dry air from the north will move into our region on Sunday night into Monday. Highs on Monday are expected to be in the 50s. We note in the extended model data there are no real signs of winter weather or severe weather issues.a

APP… Be sure to download our free RedZone Weather app if you haven’t done so already. redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the app for your iOS or Android device. Once you have the app downloaded, be sure to visit the Alerts tab in the lower right corner of the app to select the specific notifications you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!

SHOWERS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT… Occasional showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will be possible overnight and into Wednesday morning. Severe weather is not expected, but a few claps of thunder will be possible.

Rain will clear out in the afternoon hours of Wednesday.

MOST TORNADO WARNINGS IN THE LAST 5 YEARS: BALDWIN, WASHINGTON, SANTA ROSA… South Alabama and northwest Florida had the highest number of tornado watches issued in the year 2020. We now know (for our local area) parts of Baldwin, Washington, and Santa Rosa counties have had the highest number of tornado warnings issued in the last 5 years. I am in the process of compiling quite a bit of data and statistics related to warnings and watches issued for our area to include in our 2021 advertising/sponsorship catalog. This deep dive into the data has revealed that there seem to be 3 distinct “hotspots” for tornado warnings in our local area.

THE 3 HOTSPOTS FOR TORNADO WARNINGS LOCALLY… The attached map highlights the total number of tornado warnings issued from December 20, 2015 to today (January 26, 2021). There are three main hotspots that stick out as pronounced areas that have had a high number of tornado warnings.

1) Parts of Washington County, Alabama near Chatom, Bigbee, and Yarbo have had 17-19 tornado warnings.

2) The same holds true (17-19 tornado warnings) for parts of Santa Rosa County, FL, specifically near Chumuckla, Brownsdale, and New York.

3) An area near Jack Edwards Airport, north of Gulf Shores, in Baldwin County, AL has also had around 17 tornado warnings since December 2015.

PARTS OF BUTLER COUNTY HAVE HAD BETTER LUCK… Areas near Georgiana, McKenzie, and Chapman in southern Butler County seem to have fared best in our area with only one tornado warning noted in the last 4 years. Both Conecuh County and Butler County seem to have had less issues with tornado warnings. As always though, “past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.” Just because these areas have not had many tornado warnings does not mean that trend will necessarily continue. It is critical that we ALL are prepared consistently for tornadoes!

TORNADO WATCH CAPITAL OF THE WORLD IN 2020… If I asked you what area of the country has had the highest number of tornado watches in 2020, what area would you guess? The Great Plains? Nope. Traditional “tornado alley?” Nope, not even close. The real “winner” of the most number of tornado watches this year is right here in our back yard in south Alabama and northwest Florida. See this post from several weeks ago discussing this in detail: https://www.facebook.com/rzweather/posts/1764441980380800

EF3 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN FULTONDALE… The National Weather Service in Birmingham conducted damage surveys today in Fultondale, a community in Jefferson County on the north side of the Birmingham metro area in north-central Alabama. NWS Birmingham found damage consistent with an EF3 tornado. That is a strong, significant tornado! Unfortunately, one person (a freshman in high school) passed away due to injuries sustained due to a tree falling in the tornado. 30+ people were injured by the strong tornado that was on the ground for 9.5 miles and was at least 500 yards wide. Our thoughts and prayers are with everyone affected by that terrible storm!

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a good evening!

4:30PM RADAR CHECK… Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move northeast across the area as we get set to go into the 5PM rush hour. Right now, the heaviest rain is happening along the US45 corridor in northern Mobile County near Citronelle.

Heavy rain is also happening near Bay Minette, Flomaton, Century, and McDavid.

Light to moderate rain is also happening near Red Level, Brewton, Damascus, McIntosh, Foley, and Magnolia Springs.

These showers and storms will continue to move northeast in the hours ahead. The severe weather risk is now quite low.