Tornado Watch coming soon for parts of eastern Louisiana and southeast Mississippi… pic.twitter.com/y5YdkD9Gqv
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2021
Tornado Watch coming soon for parts of eastern Louisiana and southeast Mississippi… pic.twitter.com/y5YdkD9Gqv
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2021
No major changes to our local, ongoing forecast.
SPC now includes much of Louisiana and coastal Mississippi in their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone. This risk is driven by a higher probability of tornadoes (some significant) and damaging winds. pic.twitter.com/aa8Jrq1nGp
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2021
Another tornado spotted near Lake Charles, Louisiana. Music language warning! https://t.co/yqWqAnxPf5
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2021
Significant tornado earlier in east Texas… https://t.co/GHevwoIDpm
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2021
Projected radar continues to show thunderstorms being most likely across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida from 8PM tonight to 8AM Thursday morning.
Tornadoes and damaging wind gusts remain the two primary concerns. Have a way to get the warnings overnight! pic.twitter.com/7HSrzZSL0T
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2021
Large tornado moving into Deweyville, Texas near the Sabine River… The radar product “correlation coefficient” confirms significant debris being lofted into the sky. Dangerous situation there! pic.twitter.com/5XBWPROvcm
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2021
Brewton Fire dispatched to Alco Plaza. Tractor brakes on fire.
— Bama Scan News (@BamaScanNews) October 27, 2021
Tornado Warnings in effect near Orange, Texas this morning, just east of Beaumont. pic.twitter.com/oXZfooJAmj
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2021
A nice morning shot this morning in Ralph @weswyattweather @RichardWVUA23 @spann @JohnnyParker012 @JRayLively @rzweather pic.twitter.com/ZixLU96vvG
— Josh Kemp (@JoshKempWX) October 27, 2021
Thunderstorms are likely at times overnight into Thursday. A few strong to severe storms may be possible. If we have tornado warnings locally, join me in live coverage on Facebook Live! pic.twitter.com/iheyPxE7eV
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2021
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING; RAIN CHANCES RISE THIS EVENING… Severe storms, including tornadoes, will become possible late this evening into Thursday morning as a cold front approaches our area from the west. Most, if not all, of the daytime hours today will be mostly dry with only a few spotty showers and storms around. Rain chances will rise later this evening, after 5PM. A few strong to marginally severe storms may become possible in parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties after 6PM. The main 12 hour window for severe storms in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be from 8PM tonight to 8AM Thursday. The core window for severe storms will be from 11PM to 7PM. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to get urgent weather warnings tonight into Thursday morning. I will have updates posted throughout the night in the RedZone Weather app and of course, per our usual, we will go into live video coverage if and when tornado warnings are needed. After the storms overnight into Thursday, we will likely have lingering showers late Thursday into early Friday. A gorgeous weekend with cooler temperatures is ahead.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK ADDED FOR LOUISIANA… Shortly after I produced this video earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center added a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone for parts of central Louisiana, including Baton Rouge, Lake Charles, New Iberia, Lafayette, and Houma. The tornado risk will be maximized later today in these areas.
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MOST LOCALLY… We have a Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk for much of our local area tonight, meaning scattered severe storms will be the concern. The northern and eastern part of our area remains in the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone. Regardless of which risk zone your specific community is involved in today, we all have a risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts tonight into Thursday morning.
DRY WEEKEND AHEAD… We get a “consolation prize” of sorts this weekend as mostly sunny skies are expected for Saturday and Sunday. I suspect a few showers will linger into Thursday and early Friday morning but clearing skies are expected late in the day on Friday. Highs on Friday will only be in the mid- to upper-60s (!) as cool, dry air surges in behind the advancing cold front.
A few review paragraphs are below. The information from my post last evening remains on point.
WHAT TO EXPECT – HOUR-BY-HOUR… Most communities across south Alabama and northwest Florida will simply have heavy rain at times with occasional thunder tonight into Thursday morning. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe, however. Most won’t, but inevitably with this kind of atmospheric setup, there is a chance for a few severe storms capable of producing a tornado or two and damaging straight line winds. Most of the daytime hours today will be dry with only spotty showers and storms around. There is a low-end risk of a few severe storms in Mobile and Baldwin counties and points west from 5PM to when the “main event” starts later this evening. Rain chances will increase slightly from 6PM to 9PM, but even in that 3 hour window, I think most of south Alabama and northwest Florida has a good chance to be dry. Rain and storms will grow in coverage across the region after 9PM with a large batch of storms likely to cross the area in the overnight hours. These storms are the ones that have the greatest chance of being severe. This means you must have a way to get tornado warnings in the overnight hours before you go to sleep tonight.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY… The main 12 hour window has not changed for when severe storms are expected: 8PM tonight to 8AM Thursday looks to be the 12 hour window for when storms are MOST likely to happen. The core of that risk will happen between 11PM and 7AM on Thursday morning. This means that the risk is predominately in the overnight hours. Again, to emphasize, please have a way to get warnings tonight before you go to sleep. Storms will enter from the west and gradually move across the region, likely exiting to our east no later than 8-9AM.
GUSTY WINDS & TORNADOES REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS… The primary severe weather hazards on tonight into Thursday will be damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado risk will almost certainly be maximized in areas closer to the immediate coast, thus if you are in Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia, Santa Rosa, or Okaloosa counties, your tornado risk may be just a bit higher compared to areas farther inland. MOST communities will simply have rain at times tonight into Thursday. That is what you should expect, with rain for most and MOST (not all) of the severe weather issues being to our west. The concern is that one or two isolated severe storms may happen ahead of an advancing line of storms tonight that may produce a few tornadoes or gusty winds. In addition, the line of storms that moves through could produce damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Isolated instances of large hail and flash flooding may also be possible, although those hazard risks are less compared to the damaging wind and tornado risks.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates posted throughout the day and into the night in the RedZone Weather app. Join me in live tornado warning coverage if warnings are needed for our local area. Have a great day!
A few showers will be possible today ahead of a chance of a few stronger storms tonight into Thursday. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings overnight! ? pic.twitter.com/nBlaSy3Xg0
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2021
The Storm Prediction Center has added a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk for parts of southern/central Louisiana valid for later today. This higher risk is driven by higher ("10%") tornado probabilities.
No big changes to the outlook areas for AL or FL. pic.twitter.com/jBk9qCCDVt
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2021
? 10/26 11pm Update: No change to the current forecast regarding hazards beginning Weds evening. However, there is a chance for the current Wind Advisory to be moved further inland, and a Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed for late Weds night. Remain aware & stay tuned. #mobx https://t.co/Ca9KXub8cH
— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) October 27, 2021
SEVERE WEATHER RISK EXPANDS SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY… Wednesday will be mainly dry ahead of an increasing risk of strong to severe thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk slightly to include more of Escambia (AL) and Washington counties, joining all of our local coastal counties (Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa) in the zone where storms will be most likely to become severe on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Again, MOST of the daytime hours on Wednesday will be dry. There will be a very low chance of a few storms becoming severe in parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties after 5PM Wednesday evening, although this idea is much more uncertain compared to the high confidence we have in the overall setup for a squall line to cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Don’t get caught up in the convective outlook details at this point, just please understand we all have a risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Have a way to get urgent weather warnings tomorrow night. You need something that will wake you up if your specific location goes under a tornado warning. More forecast notes are below.
WHAT TO EXPECT – HOUR-BY-HOUR… Most communities across south Alabama and northwest Florida will simply have heavy rain at times with occasional thunder Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe, however. Most won’t, but inevitably with this kind of atmospheric setup, there is a chance for a few severe storms capable of producing a tornado or two and damaging straight line winds. Most of the daytime hours on Wednesday will be dry with only spotty showers and storms around. There is a low-end risk of a few severe storms in Mobile and Baldwin counties and points west from 5PM to when the “main event” starts late Wednesday evening. Rain chances will increase slightly from 6PM to 9PM, but even in that 3 hour window, I think most of south Alabama and northwest Florida has a good chance to be dry. Rain and storms will grow in coverage across the region after 9PM with a large batch of storms likely to cross the area in the overnight hours. These storms are the ones that have the greatest chance of being severe. This means you must have a way to get tornado warnings in the overnight hours before you go to sleep Wednesday night.
UPDATED: SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY… The main 12 hour window has not changed for when severe storms are expected: 8PM Wednesday to 8AM Thursday looks to be the 12 hour window for when storms are MOST likely to happen. The core of that risk will happen between 1AM and 7AM on Thursday morning. This means that the risk is predominately in the overnight hours. Please have a way to get warnings Wednesday night before you go to sleep. Storms will enter from the west and gradually move across the region, likely exiting to our east no later than 8-9AM.
UPDATED: GUSTY WINDS & TORNADOES REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS… The primary severe weather hazards on Wednesday night into Thursday will be damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado risk will almost certainly be maximized in areas closer to the immediate coast, thus if you are in Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia, Santa Rosa, or Okaloosa counties, your tornado risk may be just a bit higher compared to areas farther inland. MOST communities will simply have rain at times Wednesday into Thursday. That is what you should expect, with rain for most and MOST (not all) of the severe weather issues being to our west. The concern is that one or two isolated severe storms may happen ahead of an advancing line of storms Wednesday night that may produce a few tornadoes or gusty winds. In addition, the line of storms that moves through could produce damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Isolated instances of large hail and flash flooding may also be possible, although those hazard risks are less compared to the damaging wind and tornado risks.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
My next detailed update will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow (Wednesday) in the morning forecast video and long form text discussion. Have a nice Tuesday evening!
Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the two primary hazards Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a line of strong to severe thunderstorms moves across our region. Have a way to hear warnings! ? Details here: https://t.co/DAQWjxAfjS pic.twitter.com/1ziVGsX782
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2021
Sunset Atmore,AL @spann @NWSMobile @rzweather @StormHour @ThomasGeboyWX @WKRGEd @michaelwhitewx @KDanielCCI @AlanSealls @JohnnyParker012 #alwx #sunset pic.twitter.com/8VO4bJuqmn
— Ditto Gorme (@dittogorme) October 27, 2021
Really wonderful day at Foley Elementary School in Foley, Alabama discussing tornado safety with the 3rd graders! Love my job and love that I’m able to help folks of all ages become SEVERE WEATHER READY! ? pic.twitter.com/mHfaGPpwkq
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 26, 2021
Thanks to Joe Ray at WBZR Radio in Atmore, AL for asking me to come speak about severe weather safety today. You can hear our conversation on Friday in the 7AM hour on WBZR. ?
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 26, 2021
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night from parts of east/southeast Texas across Louisiana to the central Gulf Coast. pic.twitter.com/zzt6pwlaSE
— NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) October 26, 2021
Latest convective outlook now highlights much of our local area in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk valid tomorrow evening into Thursday morning… Tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be possible. pic.twitter.com/IHLq3i0oQm
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 26, 2021