TROPICS SET TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS… The long lull of no storms in the tropics will likely end in the next several days as multiple disturbances have formed in the tropical Atlantic Basin. Fortunately, none of these disturbances are an imminent threat to Alabama or northwest Florida at the time I am writing this on the evening of Saturday, August 27, 2022. So far, this Atlantic Hurricane Season has been below normal in terms of tropical activity so far. Could these disturbances ultimately move into the Gulf of Mexico? Yes. That is one possibility. There are many other possibilities, however, that could happen, including some of these disturbances potentially recurving into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and affecting absolutely no one except shipping interests. Let’s look at the facts of what we know this evening.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA… The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on a tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea that will move into an environment by the middle of the upcoming week that could be more supportive of tropical storm formation. This is the “yellow area” on the left/west side of the attached map where NHC puts development odds at a 20% chance. We note that longer range models have varied quite a bit on what may ultimately happen with this system, but I am encouraged by recent analysis of the major global weather models that show a potential trend toward a continued movement well to our west toward Mexico or possibly South Texas. That is one idea on the table and it is far too early to rule out or suggest local impacts will or won’t happen. I’ll keep you posted on this system in the days ahead as this would be the first to impact our local area IF any of the below-discussed systems ever do cause local impacts. Again, not suggesting local impacts will or won’t happen. I’m simply stating IF local impacts happened, this would be the first system on our list.

GROWING CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING EAST OF THE ANTILLES… This is the “orange area” in the middle part of the attached map, highlighting the zone where the National Hurricane Center believes there is a 50% chance of a tropical storm forming over the next several days. From NHC: “Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for additional gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands.” Some of the longer range models highlight a general, continued northwesterly movement of this tropical feature toward the Turks & Caicos, The Bahamas, and potentially even the USA. Too early to know any concrete details about IF or WHEN any U.S. communities will be impacted. Nothing to stress over at this point, but definitely something to be aware of in the days ahead.

TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE OFF AFRICAN COAST… It is totally normal during this time of year to see tropical waves moving off the African coast. Most of these tropical waves move west across the Atlantic Ocean and never become named tropical storms. Some of the tropical waves over the next few weeks will likely become named storms as we are approaching the climatological peak of hurricane season. One of these tropical waves is approaching the western coast of Africa now and will emerge into the eastern Atlantic Ocean by the middle of the upcoming week. The National Hurricane Center indicates this tropical wave has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days. Long way away from North America, but something to watch over the next few days.

SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF BERMUDA… An area of low pressure may spin up several hundred miles east of Bermuda in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean over the next several days. There is a brief window for a tropical storm to form over the next 2-3 days while the area of low pressure meanders around the open ocean. No land impacts are expected from this system, regardless of if it becomes a named storm.

TROPICAL ACTIVITY WELL BELOW NORMAL, SO FAR… According to climatological records, the 5th named tropical storm of the year forms no later than August 22. We have only had 3 named tropical storms this year (Alex, Bonnie, and most recently, Colin). Usually, two hurricanes have formed by August 26 each year. This year, we have had no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. It is true that we are “running behind” in terms of storms so far this year. Hopefully that trend will continue, but the major global weather models do highlight the several areas described above that may ultimately develop into tropical storms and perhaps even a hurricane or two.

EVEN IN ‘QUIETER’ HURRICANE SEASONS, “IT ONLY TAKES ONE”… I look back 25 years ago to the 1997 Atlantic Hurricane Season as the quintessential example of what I mean by “it only takes one.” The 1997 season featured only 9 named storms, only 3 (!) hurricanes and only 1 major hurricane. One of those 3 hurricanes was Hurricane Danny. The storm was the ONLY named storm that happened in the Gulf of Mexico that year. Local impacts were significant. Danny “pulled a Sally” and stalled right over Mobile Bay, dropping 3 FEET (yes, feet!) of rain near Dauphin Island and the Alabama beaches. One rain gauge at Dauphin Island recorded 37.75″ of rain during the Hurricane Danny sequence. Danny was the only storm to make landfall in the continental United States that year. So even if this hurricane season ends up being “quiet,” it only takes one storm to be a really big deal. Same thing happened in 1992 with Hurricane Andrew. Near or just below normal year, but a year everyone will remember because of category 5 Hurricane Andrew making landfall in South Florida then Louisiana.

LOCALLY, MORE POP-UP STORMS SUNDAY… Tomorrow will be quite similar to today in that we will have scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening hours. Some of the storms will be loud and proud at times with gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rain, and loud thunder being possible. Fortunately, no discernible tornado risk for land areas on Sunday. A waterspout or two may be possible just offshore, however.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

I will have more updates about the tropics over the next several days in the RedZone Weather app. My next forecast video detailing the latest information will be posted bright and early at 7:15AM on Monday morning. Have a nice Saturday evening!

LOUD STORMS NEAR NAVARRE & CRESTVIEW… Thunderstorms continue to fire up this afternoon across the region. At the moment, heavy rain is happening near Elberta, Orange Beach, Pineview, Navarre, Crestview, Hold, and Mossy Head.

More storms are likely to develop over the next few hours.