Watching this general area on radar just east of AL181 near Fairhope. Broad, weak rotation along with torrential rainfall. This is happening near and just south of AL104 and just east of Bill-E's restaurant. pic.twitter.com/BQdxo3Ufxx
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2025
Now to roughly 4AM or 5AM is going to be the window for any strong to severe storms. This is the latest run of the HRRR model showing the bulk of the activity happening closer to the coast.
Growing very concerned about the flash flood potential near coastal Alabama and NW FL. pic.twitter.com/yhcENzaTau
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2025
Storms happening across Baldwin County and near Dauphin Island continue to behave so far.
Continuing to see brief, transient areas of rotation that develop and fade just as quick. That’s fine – as long as they don’t stick around and become tornadic.
Watching trends carefully. pic.twitter.com/DPAsNeRS6s
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2025
Several little hotspots of weak rotation noted as of 9:13PM near Malbis, Spanish Fort, Belforest, Daphne, Silverhill, Fairhope, and Point Clear.
Watching these cells carefully.
Torrential rainfall continues across much of the Eastern Shore region. pic.twitter.com/owzzclnjzE
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2025
These are the two cells that warrant the most attention over the next 30 minutes or so. The storms over Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Malbis, and Montrose CURRENTLY are under severe limits.
Need to really watch that cell out over the bay as it meanders. Also watching east end… pic.twitter.com/4py3uCno4A
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2025
DEWPOINTS TELL THE TALE… This is the local radar with current dewpoint temperatures added. These numbers tell the tale of what is happening this evening.
If your community has a dewpoint LESS than 65°, you’re very likely in good shape with no severe weather threat. Colder air from the northeast will likely keep Covington, Butler, Conecuh, Monroe, and Clarke counties in good shape. Escambia (AL) and Washington counties are at the northern extent of the unsettled air mass, but probably will be in good shape overnight. Northern Okaloosa and Walton counties are in the same boat, in that the air is a bit more stable there compared to down at the coastline in those counties.
65-70° is the range where the airmass could support a few stronger to marginally severe storms. This zone includes inland stretches of Mobile, Baldwin, northern Escambia (FL), and northern Santa Rosa counties.
70°+ is the range where the air mass is soupy, ripe, and ready for storms. This zone includes southern Mobile and southern Baldwin counties along with beach communities in Escambia (FL) and Santa Rosa counties.
Just like what happened earlier today, it looks like zones south of Interstate 10 have the greatest risk of a few tornadoes overnight. Now you know the logic behind that statement!
Other storms are happening in Baldwin County and near the west end of Dauphin Island, but what has my attention as of 7:57PM is this large supercell over southern Mobile Bay.
No immediate threat to land, but we need to watch it as it slowly drifts north over Mobile Bay. pic.twitter.com/SIQYdbUxpc
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) October 27, 2025
