ISOLATED STRONG POP-UP STORMS TODAY; GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE… Isolated strong to severe pop-up thunderstorms will be possible across south Alabama and northwest Florida this afternoon into this evening. Most of the morning will be dry across the region ahead of storms popping up in the heat of the day. Thunderstorms that become strong or marginally severe this afternoon into this evening will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Tornadoes are not expected today, but be aware that straight line winds will be a concern in the strongest of the storms today into this evening. All of the thunderstorms will be capable of producing loud thunder, prolific lightning, and heavy pockets of rain. I will have plenty of updates posted in the RedZone Weather app later today. High temperatures will be in the 90-95° range with heat index values in excess of 103° this afternoon.
STORM TIMING – THIS EVENING… 2PM to 9PM is the seven hour window when thunderstorms will be most numerous across south Alabama and northwest Florida today. Storms will fade after 9PM.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IN STRONGEST STORMS: GUSTY WINDS… All local counties are involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for today. This risk is driven by a low-end chance of damaging wind gusts in the strongest storms. Widespread, significant severe weather is not expected, but a few storms may briefly become strong or severe. Localized downpours and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will also be concerns.
REPEAT FORECAST TOMORROW: ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE… Tomorrow will feature another round of scattered, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may briefly become strong with gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. The Storm Prediction Center includes all local counties in another low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk for Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the 90-95° range on Tuesday.
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… Rain and storm coverage is expected to increase Wednesday and Thursday as weak disturbances continue moving across the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with Thursday currently expected to be the wettest day of the week. Strong wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning will remain possible in the stronger storms. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s.
SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Friday, followed by somewhat lower rain chances Saturday and Sunday. This does not mean the weekend will be completely dry, but storm coverage should become less widespread compared to Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s.
TROPICS: TROPICAL WAVE IN EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY DEVELOP… A tropical wave is emerging from the west coast of Africa today. An area of low pressure may develop with this wave early this week, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter part of the week while the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center indicates a 50-60% chance of development over the next 7 days. Early model guidance points to the system recurving into the north Atlantic regardless of if formal development happens. Obviously it remains too early to rule out direct U.S. impacts.
TROPICS: DISTURBANCE EAST OF BERMUDA… INVEST 95L is a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, but some development will be possible during the next few days. NHC indicates a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 30% chance over the next 7 days. The system is expected to drift northwestward today before accelerating northward early this week.
TROPICS: GULF & CARIBBEAN REMAIN QUIET… Tropical development is not expected in the Gulf or the Caribbean Sea over the next 5-7 days.
APP ALERTS… Expect plenty of updates in the RedZone Weather app as we monitor strong to marginally severe thunderstorms this evening. If you don’t already have the app, redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. After installing it, visit the Alerts tab and make sure the specific notifications you want to receive are turned ON.
See all the details in your Monday RedZone Weather forecast video. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. I will have updates posted throughout the day, as needed, in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a great start to your week!
