7:01AM October 6, 2026




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6:53AM October 6, 2026

PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY; TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN GULF AND MOVE NORTH INTO WEEKEND… We’re keeping a close eye on INVEST 92L, the disturbance located in the southwestern Gulf that is expected to become a named tropical storm in the days ahead. Other than a few showers, big weather impacts are not expected today across south Alabama and northwest Florida. A mix of clouds and sunshine is expected across south Alabama and northwest Florida today, with a few showers possible, particularly closer to the coast. Rain chances are much lower farther inland near places like Thomasville and Greenville. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with occasionally breezy conditions. We’ll be watching the tropical disturbance in the Gulf over the next few days as The National Hurricane Center indicates an 80% chance of development into a named tropical storm. The system is forecast to drift eastward initially before turning northward. It remains too early to pinpoint where it will ultimately go or how strong it may become. Local impacts in Alabama and northwest Florida are increasingly likely, regardless of whether the system takes a name or not.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS FROM INVEST 92L – SOUTH ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… Heavy rainfall and dangerous beach conditions are the primary potential concerns right now for south Alabama and northwest Florida as we monitor INVEST 92L. These hazards will likely happen regardless of whether the disturbance becomes a named tropical storm. Increasing rain chances later this week are more certain than the details of the system’s eventual track and strength. It is too early to make a specific local wind or tornado hazard assessment.

POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – ALABAMA & N.W. FLORIDA… Since we are still 4-5 days out from potential impacts due to this tropical system, it’s important for me to stress that CHANGES will be likely in the days ahead. The storm hasn’t even formed yet, so it’s impossible to nail down what to expect for specific communities just yet. Let’s break this down into what is likely, what is possible, and what (at the moment, anyway) seems unlikely.

LIKELY LOCAL IMPACT – RAIN… Rain is expected in the next week, specifically Friday and after. The latest QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) indicates nearly all of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida should expect upwards of 3 inches of rain (at minimum) before all is said and done around a week from today. Locales closer to the coast may have upwards of 5-8″ of rain in total (on top of what happened over the last few days). If we see this become a stronger system, those rain projection totals will have to be revised upward. For now, 3-5″ of total rain with the greater values near the coast is what I have in the forecast.

LIKELY LOCAL IMPACT – BEACHES… High surf, dangerous rip currents, and (at minimum) minor coastal flooding are expected this weekend. If the system ends up being a bit stronger, coastal flooding and storm surge would be greater issues.

POSSIBLE LOCAL IMPACT – WIND & TORNADOES… We won’t have a good handle on this for a few days, but please know that IF the system ends up strengthening to tropical storm or hurricane status, there is a high chance we will have to contend with an extended duration of possible tornadoes AND potentially significant wind impacts, especially closer to the coast. Saturday through Monday A.M. would be the broad time frame with this – not saying it would last that long, but odds are if we have bigger impacts, it would exist in that window.

POSSIBLE LOCAL IMPACT – MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE… Just like the tornado/wind threat discussed above, we won’t have a good idea of the storm surge specifics until later this week. There is a chance, however, that if this developing storm reaches strong tropical storm or hurricane status, storm surge could become an issue. This will largely depend on the exact future track of the system as well. If we’re on the eastern side of the storm, that will be more problematic than if we end up on the west side (when water would be blown out of local bays into the Gulf).

MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY… Tomorrow looks like the driest day of the week, with nearly all communities expected to remain rain-free. Most places should also stay dry Thursday, although a few showers become possible and rain chances increase somewhat Thursday night. High temperatures will be in the low to upper 80s tomorrow and Thursday. This mainly dry stretch comes before a more noticeable increase in rain coverage Friday into the weekend.

INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY… Showers and a few thunderstorms become more likely Friday, with rain chances increasing further Friday night. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s. While the exact evolution of 92L remains uncertain, the local forecast already supports a wetter pattern as we head toward the weekend. We will be able to refine the timing and coverage of the rain as the disturbance becomes better organized.

IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY… Saturday and Sunday currently look like the wettest days of the next week. Rain chances will be high on both Saturday and Sunday, with showers and some thunderstorms likely. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Heavy rain and hazardous surf remain the main concerns, but specific impacts from the tropical system will depend on its track and strength. An upper-level weather system moving toward Texas will help determine when and where the Gulf disturbance turns northward. Those details are not settled yet. If you have outdoor or beach plans this weekend, keep checking the forecast as confidence improves over the next few days.

BEACHES: RIP CURRENT WARNING… A HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents begins today at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches and is expected to persist through at least the remainder of the week. Stay out of the water while these dangerous conditions persist. High surf will also increasingly become a concern as the Gulf disturbance evolves over the next few days.

APP… Download the free RedZone Weather app at redzoneweather.com/app to keep up with the latest weather information for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the app installed, head over to the Alerts tab and select the notifications that are most useful to you. All notifications are handcrafted by me, and you remain in control of which alerts you receive.

See all the details in your Tuesday RedZone Weather forecast video. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. I will have updates posted throughout the day, as needed, in the RedZone Weather app.

Have a good Tuesday!

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6:29AM October 6, 2026




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11:34PM October 5, 2026




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10:32PM October 5, 2026




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8:34PM October 5, 2026

GULF STORM LIKELY TO DEVELOP; RANGE OF OUTCOMES FOR THIS WEEKEND… What we know this evening is that chances for a tropical storm developing in the southwestern Gulf continue to increase. We also know that part of the Deep South is about to get a whole lot of rain that could lead to flooding. What we don’t know just yet is where the system will ultimately end up or how strong it will be. We’re still quite early in the forecasting process and there remain quite a few questions that can’t be answered just yet. Welcome to the world of meteorology where a lot can and WILL change over the next few days as more data comes in. This evening, I’ve prepared a range of scenarios that could happen in the days ahead, hopefully better clarifying some of the mechanics of the forecast. While I can’t tell you just yet what will happen in your hometown, I can tell you about the overall pattern that could bring potentially significant impacts to our region later this week (or not!) and why. Here are the details.

SCENARIO 1: STORM DEVELOPS QUICKER, BECOMES STRONGER, AND MOVES OUT QUICKER… A tropical storm or category 1 hurricane develops on Wednesday or Thursday before making landfall along the Mississippi, Alabama, or northwest Florida coast. This scenario would give the storm more time over the warm waters of the central Gulf before a landfall further east, as in east of Louisiana. Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida would largely be dependent on where the center of the storm moves ashore. So even in this one scenario, there is a range of possibilities. IF the storm made landfall anywhere west of Pensacola, that would put the bulk of our region on the “bad” eastern side of the storm where wind impacts, heavy rain/flash flooding, and tornadoes would likely be worse. On the flip side, if the storm makes landfall somewhere east of Destin, much of our area would be on the “better,” west side of the storm. This scenario would be more of a wind issue with quite a bit of rain, but not as much rain/flooding as the scenario below. The reason this scenario COULD happen? Main reason is more time over the warm waters of the Gulf and the storm would not be dealing with drier air to the west over Texas and western Louisiana.

SCENARIO 2: STORM DOES NOT DEVELOP OR REMAINS WEAK, MOVES SLOWER… The system fails to develop into a named tropical storm and instead produces a long-form, major rain event across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida from Friday through Sunday. This could end up being the worst scenario as far as heavy rain and flash flooding with some locales near the coast likely picking up 10-12″ of rain. Isolated tornadoes may still be possible but the overall, significant wind threat would be less in this scenario. The reason this scenario COULD happen? Higher amounts of atmospheric shear, keeping the system in check, along with dry air filtering into the system from the west. The storm would be more “lopsided” in nature with the bulk of the impacts happening on the east side of the storm.

SCENARIO 3: STORM REMAINS BASICALLY STATIONARY FOR DAYS… This is more of an outlier scenario at this point, but we note that some of the major weather models kept the storm in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf for longer (into the weekend) before steering the system into Mexico as a much weaker storm perhaps next week. The odds of this happening seem to be rapidly decreasing, but the small possibility is still there.

SO WHICH SCENARIO WILL HAPPEN?… That’s the million-dollar question this evening and one that I cannot answer (nor can anyone, just yet). I would tend to lean toward something like Scenario 1 with a faster track toward the MS/AL/FL coast on Friday or Saturday, but that is strictly based on the latest model data I have seen. It’s simply too early for anything concrete. Everyone from Louisiana to Florida (including Mississippi and Alabama folks) should monitor this system carefully over the next few days.

APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

I will have more updates posted in the days ahead in the RedZone Weather app. My next regularly scheduled forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Hope you will join us for that.

Have a great Monday evening!

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8:33PM October 5, 2026




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