In addition to the potential of flash flooding tomorrow, particularly closer to the coast, the Storm Prediction Center has included a big chunk of Alabama and NW Florida in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk.
Most will have rain. A few strong storms possible. pic.twitter.com/gZJhvKfaFt
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) November 18, 2024
Other than highly isolated areas of sprinkles and showers, south Alabama and northwest Florida will likely remain mostly dry through midnight.
Rain and storms build in overnight after midnight. Tuesday will be QUITE wet with 2-4" of total rainfall being the norm. pic.twitter.com/dY0vqVsb0z
— Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) November 18, 2024
Forecast Update (11/17) – Heavy rain moves into the area overnight Monday into Tuesday. Flooding is possible, especially across southeast MS, southwest AL and the western FL panhandle. 3-5 inches of rain is possible area-wide, locally higher in some areas. pic.twitter.com/fGr6ZzVoJZ
— NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile) November 17, 2024
STORMS TOMORROW; COLD AIR MOVES IN LATER THIS WEEK… Rain and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow ahead of sharply cooler air moving into our region behind an advancing cold front.
Highs will be in the 50s and 60s later this week with morning lows in the 30s by Friday morning. Fall is about to be here in full force!
BECOMING CLOUDY TODAY; HEAVY RAIN & STORMS ON TUESDAY… Cloud coverage will increase across the region today ahead of the most significant rain event our area has had in several months. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be the norm on Tuesday with most communities likely to pick up 2 to 5 inches of total rainfall. This event will help to significantly mitigate the ongoing drought across the region. The overall severe weather threat for Tuesday will likely remain rather low. Looking ahead, we have cooler, drier air set to filter into our region on Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the 50s later this week.
BIGGEST RAIN EVENT OUR AREA HAS HAD IN MONTHS SET FOR TUESDAY… Isolated instances of flash flooding may become possible tomorrow, particularly if storms train over the same areas. The greater rain amounts of 4 to 5 inches will likely happen in parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), and Santa Rosa counties. The rain is great news, but even better news is that widespread severe thunderstorms seem highly unlikely to happen. Could there be one or two severe storms? Yes, but the overall risk is quite low. Cooler, drier air arrives on Wednesday. The end of the week looks quite cold with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included all of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for Tuesday. Anytime there is a Level 1 (out of 5) risk in place, it means that widespread severe storms are not expected, but a few, brief severe storms could happen. The main concern in any thunderstorms that become strong on Tuesday will be the risk of gusty winds. The overall tornado risk on Tuesday looks to be quite low. Perhaps not completely zero, but quite low. The risk of flash flooding will be elevated on Tuesday, particularly in communities closer to the beaches and bays.
TIMING FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY… Rain chances will rise throughout the night on Monday. There is a high chance many communities will have rain happening at sunrise on Tuesday. Rain will spread inland from southwest to northeast throughout the morning on Tuesday. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible at times. Rain will continue in many communities throughout the day on Tuesday and come to an end in most spots by 8PM Tuesday evening.
COLDER AIR COMING LATER THIS WEEK… The moisture influx due to an advancing cold front and due to the remnants of the system that once was Tropical Storm Sara will kick out to our east on Tuesday evening, giving way to drier air arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Cold air will start filtering into our region on Wednesday evening. High temperatures will be in the upper-50s on Thursday and Friday with morning lows in the 30s by Friday morning.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Monday morning RedZone Weather forecast video. Have a nice start to your week!
