SNOW POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN NORTH ALABAMA; NO SNOW LOCALLY… RZW Exec partners, good Monday evening! There is a growing chance that the far northern stretches of Alabama and parts of Tennessee will have a dusting to 1 inch of accumulating snow on Tuesday evening. While confidence is near certain that we will NOT have any snow or wintry precipitation on Tuesday across south Alabama or northwest Florida, we will have some rain and general (non-severe) thunderstorms around. The greatest chance for rain on Tuesday will be from 10AM to 6PM with rain being possible late Tuesday night as well. Here is the post we will debut publicly this evening:

SNOW POSSIBLE IN NORTH ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING; NO SNOW LOCALLY… There will likely be a changeover from rain to snow across the far northern part of Alabama near Florence, Muscle Shoals, Decatur, and Huntsville on Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. No snow or mixed precipitation is expected anywhere close by south Alabama or northwest Florida. For us, the weather story will be RAIN on Tuesday into Wednesday with much colder air moving in. If you’re looking for snow or a wintry mix, you’re going to have to travel at least to areas north of Birmingham. Temperatures will simply be too warm for our local area to have any snow or wintry precipitation.

GREATEST ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL IN ALABAMA NEAR FLORENCE… The National Weather Service in Huntsville continues to suggest that the greatest chance of accumulating snow will probably happen in Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklin, Lawrence, or Limestone counties in northwest Alabama. This includes areas like Florence, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, Moulton, Athens, and Ardmore. These are communities in the far northern tier of the state near the Alabama-Tennessee state line. Most spots will have a light dusting of snow (<0.25” or less) but some spots may pick up upwards of 1” of snow before the precipitation moves out to the east. MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED… If you’re traveling to north Alabama, particularly to areas north of U.S. Highway 278, be aware of the potential for rain, sleet, and snow on Tuesday afternoon extending to early Wednesday morning across northeast Alabama. While the travel impacts should be pretty limited, there could be some slick spots on area roadways across north Alabama.

COLD RAIN FOR LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… Temperatures will be quite warm again on Tuesday across south Alabama and northwest Florida ahead of the advancing cold front. High temperatures will again be in the 70s. Once the cold front passes through your respective location, however, there will probably be a quick 10-20 degree drop in the temperature. Rain will become increasingly likely throughout the day on Tuesday and linger into Wednesday. Again, unfortunately for snow lovers locally, no snow or mixed precipitation is expected anywhere near the southern half of Alabama or in northwest Florida.

I’ll have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Tuesday. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great evening!

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY… RZW Exec members, I hope you’re each having a nice Veterans Day Monday. We have a strong cold front set to arrive in our area around 3AM on Tuesday. This cold front will usher in the coldest air of the fall season we’ve had so far. We will have rain at times this evening into the overnight hours. While we could have a few sleet pellets or small snow flurries on the back edge of the band of precipitation on Tuesday morning between 6AM and 9AM across parts of Choctaw, Washington, and Clarke counties, I am not expecting significant winter weather impacts across vast majority of our region at this time. This will be a cold rain event for most of us with no wintry precipitation. No sleet or ice accumulations are expected across our area.

VERY COLD TUESDAY… There is a high chance that temperatures “go the wrong way” on Tuesday. Our technical high temperature will happen just after midnight when most spots are in the 60s. The cold front will move by between 2AM and 8AM, bringing down temperatures into the 40s by 8AM Tuesday. Most spots will remain in the 40s all day Tuesday with a cold 5-15 mph wind out of the northwest. Wind chill values may be in the 30s all day on Tuesday, which will probably go down as one of our coldest days of 2019.

FREEZE WATCH FOR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA… The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Freeze Watch valid from 6PM Tuesday to 9AM on Wednesday. This Freeze Watch is in effect for the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida. There is a very high chance this will need to be upgraded to a Freeze Warning later today. These products are issued at the beginning and end of the growing season to alert farmers and the general public that an unseasonable freeze is expected.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 20s WEDNESDAY MORNING… Temperatures will be below 30 degrees for several hours on Wednesday morning, probably from 1AM to 8AM. Our forecast calls for most spots across south Alabama and northwest Florida to find a minimum air temperature at 6AM Wednesday between 25-29°. The wind chill during this time frame will be in the 17-21° range due to the strong northwest wind.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE LATER THIS WEEK… This will be a pronounced cold snap through Thursday. Temperatures will drop below freezing again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We warm into the 60s by Thursday with lows in the 40s this weekend. This won’t be a long duration, weeklong freeze event or anything close to that, but it IS a classic fall cold snap for the Deep South with two nights of temperatures below freezing.

Please let me know if you have any decision support needs related to this cold snap. Have a great evening!

LOW-END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING… RZW Exec members, good evening! The Storm Prediction Center has hastily issued an update to their morning convective outlook including much of south Alabama and all of northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk valid through this evening. The atmosphere is a bit more volitile and unstable than expected today, thus some of the storms may ramp up and produce brief tornadoes over the next few hours. Areas in the darker shade of green are now involved in the low-end risk zone.

WHAT TO EXPECT: NEXT FEW HOURS… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across our area before rain becomes more stratiform and consistent later this evening. One or two of the storms this evening may ramp up to strong or severe levels. We note that storms have “overperformed” today in terms of the lightning output. This is often a sign that instability in the atmosphere may be a bit higher, and thus storms may have a bit more energy to work with than models suggested.

TORNADO WARNING EARLIER… We had a round of tornado warning coverage that started about an hour ago due to a cell that ramped up quickly near Prichard. Jay Ates, a gentleman who apparently works at one of the ship yards near there, sent us a video of a brief, spin-up tornado that happened. The cell ramped up over the Mobile-Tensaw River Delta before weakening as it moved into Baldwin County near areas north of Spanish Fort. Atmospheric parameters have not appeared favorable for severe weather today, but this situation goes to show that we still have a LOT to learn in the world of meteorology and there is still an element of unpredictability.

If we have more tornado warnings in the hours ahead, be sure to join me in our uninterrupted Facebook Live coverage or in the Live tab here in the RedZone Weather app!

GROWING CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN GULF… RZW Exec members, good Thursday morning. The National Hurricane Center has outlined an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico (INVEST 97L) that now has a 50% chance of tropical storm formation over the next 2 days. Regardless of if formal development happens, this system will be a contributing factor to the high rain chances as we go into Friday and Saturday as the moisture from this lifts northward. I am not expecting major impacts from this system across south Alabama and northwest Florida at this time, regardless of if formal development happens. We will have significant rain chances this weekend, but hazardous weather is not expected at this time. As always, please let me know if you have any decision support needs. Here is the public post we will debut in the next few hours…

GROWING CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN WESTERN GULF… There is now a 40-50% chance that an area of low pressure (branded as INVEST 97L) currently situated in the Bay of Campeche becomes a tropical storm or subtropical storm as the system moves northward over the next 2-3 days. Let me be clear in stating that regardless of if this system develops into a tropical storm (or not), hazardous weather impacts from this system are NOT expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Rain, yes. Major hazards, no. This system is one of the reasons rain chances remain elevated as we go into Friday and Saturday.

INVEST 97L GAINING STRENGTH… The disturbance in the southern Gulf has become more defined and better organized this morning. The infrared satellite loop shows a large burst of convection that has formed in the last 6 hours. This means that the system probably is encountering an environment that may be more supportive of development in the hours ahead.

POTENTIAL SETUP OF 97L… We note the Global Forecast System and the ECMWF/Euro are more in sync today as far as the suggestion of copious amounts of moisture moving northward on Friday and Saturday into parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Some of this moisture will cause heavy rain across parts of our local area as well, specifically west Alabama.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL LIKELY TO BE WET ON FRIDAY NIGHT… Several schools and school systems across the region have opted to move their high school football games to this (Thursday) evening to avoid the rain that is expected on Friday. For the games tonight, we expect dry conditions with temperatures near 70° under cloudy skies. For the games that are still scheduled on Friday, rain is likely in most spots locally, especially across west Alabama. Temperatures will be in the upper-60s at most of the games inland and near 70° closer to the coast. Keep that rain gear handy and with you! We’ll have radar updates on Friday night as needed in the RedZone Weather app.

RAIN TOTALS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 1-2” RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY… Most of the heavier rain on Friday into Saturday will happen west of the Alabama River in west Alabama. Most spots in Clarke, Washington, Mobile, and Choctaw counties will probably have upwards of 2 inches of rain in total while communities farther to the east like Andalusia, Brewton, Evergreen, and Greenville may only pick up 1” of rain in total or less. You can see the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast graphic (attached) issued by the Weather Prediction Center.

UNSETTLED PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK… Rain chances will remain at least somewhat elevated Sunday through Wednesday of the upcoming week as a stalled frontal boundary meanders across our region. High temperatures will consistently be in the 70s. It probably won’t be an “all day washout” on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday, but there will likely be showers and storms around each day. We’ll keep you posted about it all in the RedZone Weather app.

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING… RZW Exec partners, good Monday morning! We’re watching radar trends to our west this morning as rain and storms move toward our local area. The forecast remains on track: A strong to severe line of thunderstorms is expected to move from west to east across south Alabama and northwest Florida this afternoon into this evening. The greatest chance of a strong or severe storm happening will be from 1PM today to 1AM Tuesday, with the core window being from 4PM to 11PM. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern, although a few, brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

STORMS OVER LOUISIANA NOW… There is a chance that the mesoscale convective system (MCS) in place over Louisiana right now may help to potentially limit strong to severe storms across our region. Models did not do a good job of picking up this feature in advance, but it is very obvious that the heavy rain and general thunderstorms in progress across much of Louisiana is limiting the overall severe weather potential there. The questions, at this point, are how long this large complex of rain and storms survives AND how far east it moves. If this MCS can move into our area and bring a drenching, consistent rain this afternoon, this will greatly help to mitigate the severe weather potential. If the MCS fades out to our west, there is a higher chance of severe weather locally. This is something I’ll be watching carefully over the next few hours. You can see this in action on the regional radar display…

I will have updates available in the public-facing sections of the RedZone Weather app (Refresh/home tab) throughout the day. As always, please let me know if you have any weather-related decision support needs that I can assist you with.

The discussion points from this morning remain on track.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… All of our local area is included in the slight, Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for today (Monday, October 21) into tonight. This means that isolated severe storms are expected. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Fairhope, Foley, Orange Beach, Thomasville, Jackson, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Evergreen, Castleberry, Greenville, Georgiana, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Century, Molino, Jay, Milton, Pace, Navarre, Crestview, Baker, Destin, and Fort Walton Beach. We also note that Troy, Geneva, Elba, Enterprise, Camden, Selma, Demopolis, Hayneville, Livingston, Eutaw, and Butler are included in the Level 2 risk zone.

LEVEL 2 RISK TO OUR WEST… SPC has included much of Mississippi and parts of Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, and southwestern Tennessee in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone as well. This is where the greatest combination of “severe weather ingredients” will be in place today into tonight. We note that New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Lake Charles, Jackson (MS), Memphis (TN), Shreveport (LA), and Monroe (LA) are included in this Level 2 risk zone.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR NORTH ALABAMA… The northern half of Alabama and much of east Alabama is included in the Level 1, marginal, low-end severe weather risk zone. This includes places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Alex City, Montgomery, Dothan, Talladega, Gadsden, Anniston, Huntsville, Decatur, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, Fayette, Jasper, Oneonta, Boaz, Clanton, Tuskegee, Prattville, and Wetumpka.

MAIN CONCERN LOCALLY: SQUALL LINE… We’ll be closely monitoring a developing QLCS/squall line that will set up to our west today across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. This line of strong to potentially severe storms will move eastward across our region starting this afternoon into this evening. There could be a few showers or storms around before the line arrives, but widespread development of discrete cells out ahead of the line is unlikely as of now.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING TODAY… The greatest concern for strong to severe storms across our local area will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. This is valid for south Alabama and northwest Florida: The greatest chance of a strong or severe storm happening will be from 1PM Monday to 1AM Tuesday, with the core window being from 4PM to 11PM.

RAIN TIMING TODAY… There could be a few isolated showers around this morning into this afternoon, but clearly the greatest rain chance will happen when the squall line of storms moves by this afternoon into this evening. Keep the rain jacket close by throughout the day.