STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING… RZW Exec partners, good Monday morning! We’re watching radar trends to our west this morning as rain and storms move toward our local area. The forecast remains on track: A strong to severe line of thunderstorms is expected to move from west to east across south Alabama and northwest Florida this afternoon into this evening. The greatest chance of a strong or severe storm happening will be from 1PM today to 1AM Tuesday, with the core window being from 4PM to 11PM. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern, although a few, brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
STORMS OVER LOUISIANA NOW… There is a chance that the mesoscale convective system (MCS) in place over Louisiana right now may help to potentially limit strong to severe storms across our region. Models did not do a good job of picking up this feature in advance, but it is very obvious that the heavy rain and general thunderstorms in progress across much of Louisiana is limiting the overall severe weather potential there. The questions, at this point, are how long this large complex of rain and storms survives AND how far east it moves. If this MCS can move into our area and bring a drenching, consistent rain this afternoon, this will greatly help to mitigate the severe weather potential. If the MCS fades out to our west, there is a higher chance of severe weather locally. This is something I’ll be watching carefully over the next few hours. You can see this in action on the regional radar display…
I will have updates available in the public-facing sections of the RedZone Weather app (Refresh/home tab) throughout the day. As always, please let me know if you have any weather-related decision support needs that I can assist you with.
The discussion points from this morning remain on track.
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR SOUTH ALABAMA & NW FLORIDA… All of our local area is included in the slight, Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone valid for today (Monday, October 21) into tonight. This means that isolated severe storms are expected. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Fairhope, Foley, Orange Beach, Thomasville, Jackson, Chatom, Millry, McIntosh, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Evergreen, Castleberry, Greenville, Georgiana, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Century, Molino, Jay, Milton, Pace, Navarre, Crestview, Baker, Destin, and Fort Walton Beach. We also note that Troy, Geneva, Elba, Enterprise, Camden, Selma, Demopolis, Hayneville, Livingston, Eutaw, and Butler are included in the Level 2 risk zone.
LEVEL 2 RISK TO OUR WEST… SPC has included much of Mississippi and parts of Louisiana, eastern Arkansas, and southwestern Tennessee in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk zone as well. This is where the greatest combination of “severe weather ingredients” will be in place today into tonight. We note that New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Lake Charles, Jackson (MS), Memphis (TN), Shreveport (LA), and Monroe (LA) are included in this Level 2 risk zone.
LEVEL 1 RISK FOR NORTH ALABAMA… The northern half of Alabama and much of east Alabama is included in the Level 1, marginal, low-end severe weather risk zone. This includes places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Alex City, Montgomery, Dothan, Talladega, Gadsden, Anniston, Huntsville, Decatur, Florence, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, Fayette, Jasper, Oneonta, Boaz, Clanton, Tuskegee, Prattville, and Wetumpka.
MAIN CONCERN LOCALLY: SQUALL LINE… We’ll be closely monitoring a developing QLCS/squall line that will set up to our west today across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. This line of strong to potentially severe storms will move eastward across our region starting this afternoon into this evening. There could be a few showers or storms around before the line arrives, but widespread development of discrete cells out ahead of the line is unlikely as of now.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING TODAY… The greatest concern for strong to severe storms across our local area will happen in the afternoon and evening hours. This is valid for south Alabama and northwest Florida: The greatest chance of a strong or severe storm happening will be from 1PM Monday to 1AM Tuesday, with the core window being from 4PM to 11PM.
RAIN TIMING TODAY… There could be a few isolated showers around this morning into this afternoon, but clearly the greatest rain chance will happen when the squall line of storms moves by this afternoon into this evening. Keep the rain jacket close by throughout the day.