SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY… Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will become possible tomorrow (Saturday, December 1) across much of Alabama and northwest Florida. The forecast for our local area remains on track with very little in the way of significant changes to pass along. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone to potentially see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday, particularly in the late morning hours. Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms will be the main concerns.

SATURDAY RISK ZONES

SPC continues to include the southern half of Alabama, southeast Mississippi, eastern Louisiana, all of northwest Florida and the Florida Panhandle, and much of southwest Georgia in their Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone. This zone is basically unchanged since yesterday. Areas included in the slight risk zone will have the highest chance of experiencing severe weather on Saturday. ALL of our local counties are included in this zone.

NEXT FEW HOURS

At the time this update is being produced as of 11:26AM, we have partly to mostly cloudy skies in place across south Alabama and northwest Florida. I expect cloud coverage to increase over the next several hours. There are already a few sprinkles happening across portions of Choctaw, Marengo, and Washington counties in west Alabama. Showers will steadily increase in number across west Alabama through the evening hours.

RAIN/STORMS OVERNIGHT

Most of the high-resolution, short-term models show a complex of rain and thunderstorms developing late this evening into early Saturday morning over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This area of rain and storms will move from southwest to northeast across our area through the early morning hours of Saturday. The big question mark is just how much this area of rain/storms stabalizes the atmosphere. IF significant stabalization occurs, our severe weather risk on Saturday morning/afternoon may be limited. On the contrary, there is a chance that significant stabalization may not occur. This would promote a potential environment for supercell thunderstorm development late on Saturday morning.

SEVERE STORM TIMING

The 12 hour window for when severe weather is most likely across our region will be from 4AM to 4PM on Saturday. The core risk will happen late morning into the early afternoon (9AM to 2PM) hours when we have the greatest setup of the “multiple atmospheric ingredients” needed for strong storm formation. The severe weather risk will end from west to east on Saturday. We note most of the storms should be well east of our area by 3PM when many folks will be watching the SEC Championship.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS

Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will be the main concerns in the stronger storms. Some weather models are depicting the potential for a few supercell thunderstorms late Saturday morning. Any supercells that become discrete and isolated will have the greatest tornado potential. Definitely something to monitor as we get closer to this potential event. The risk of large hail is low, but not zero. The hail risk will happen in any supercells that can become isolated. Isolated instances of flash flooding may happen, but the overall flash flooding risk remains low.

FINAL RZW EXEC UPDATE

This will be the final RZW Exec update for this particular severe weather event as our focus will now shift to communicating hazards to the general public. If you have any weather-related decision support questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me. Have a great weekend!

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY… RZW Exec members, good morning! The Storm Prediction Center has included the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone to potentially see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday, particularly in the morning hours. Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms will be the main concerns. Unlike some of the previous severe weather events over the last few weeks, this risk covers a larger area and all local areas are now included in the Level 2 risk zone.

MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK TO OUR WEST

Much of the Arklatex region is included in the Level 3 risk zone valid for Friday. Southern Arkansas could have a few potentially strong tornadoes during the afternoon/evening hours of Friday into Friday night. You can see in the graphic below that SPC has opted to include the western periphery of our area in their Level 1 risk on Friday. That is because we may have a few thunderstorms as early as LATE Friday evening. I’m not expecting severe weather issues in south Alabama and northwest Florida until Saturday, however.

STANDARD SLIGHT RISK FOR SATURDAY

It’s a classic “high shear, low CAPE” cold season severe weather potential we have setting up for Saturday. This likely will not be a high impact severe weather event, but there definitely could be scattered instances of trees being blown down and a few isolated tornadoes. Much of Alabama and all of northwest Florida is included in the Level 2 (out of 5), “slight risk” zone valid for Saturday. All areas along and south of a line from Aliceville to Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Talladega to Roanoke are included. Note that the entirety of the local area is included in this Level 2 risk zone.

STORM TIMING

Isolated showers could happen as early as Friday afternoon across west Alabama. More consistent rain may happen Friday evening into the overnight hours of Saturday morning. The severe weather risk, however, will extend from 4AM to 4PM on Saturday, with the greatest risk being from 9AM to 2PM. That is when the greatest combination of severe weather ingredients will be in place across our region.

The image below is a model capture valid at 1PM on Saturday. Note that this is a model, meaning timing and placement won’t happen exactly like this. All major weather models have a “look” similar to this, showing the potential for strong to severe storms in our local area midday on Saturday.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS

Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will be the main concerns in the stronger storms. Some weather models are depicting the potential for a few supercell thunderstorms late Saturday morning. Any supercells that become discrete and isolated will have the greatest tornado potential. Definitely something to monitor as we get closer to this potential event. The risk of large hail is low, but not zero. The hail risk will happen in any supercells that can become isolated. Flash flooding impacts look to be negligible at this time. Below is the latest Quantiative Precipitation Forecast, showing rain totals over the next 5 days. Some spots in Okaloosa and Walton counties could pick up over 3 inches of rainfall in total, while rainfall amounts are expected to be less across west Alabama.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE

Please let me know if you have any specific decision support-related questions. Public updates have already started and will continue during the lead up to this event. My next RZW Exec update will be posted on Friday by 3PM at the latest. Have a great evening & let me know if you have any questions!

LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS EVENING… RZW Exec members, good Sunday morning! I hope each of you had a nice Thanksgiving, Black Friday, & Iron Bowl holiday. The Storm Prediction Center has opted to upgrade part of our local area into their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for later today into tonight. Odds are vast majority of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have NO severe weather issues over the next 24 hours. The risk will almost certainly set up near the immediate coastline of our local area. One or two brief, isolated tornadoes will be the main concern. An instance of damaging straight line winds will also be possible.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED… The Level 1, low-end risk is in place for parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties. Communities along and south of Interstate 10 have the highest risk of experiencing a strong to severe storm this evening. This includes (but is not limited to) areas near Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Milton, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Molino, Chumuckla, Warrington, Perdido Key, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Foley, Elberta, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Bayou La Batre, Prichard, Saraland, and Satsuma.

NO ISSUES EXPECTED INLAND… No severe weather issues are expected across inland areas today as the warm front causing this low-end severe weather potential will not reach these areas. Stable air will likely be in place across Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Butler, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), and Covington counties for the duration of this event.

STORM TIMING… The low-end risk of severe weather/isolated tornadoes will happen from 2PM to 9PM CST today (Sunday, November 25, 2018). The risk will progressively shift eastward throughout the evening.

ONE MODEL IDEA… Below is an image capture off of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) short-term model, showing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms across our region valid at 6 o’clock this evening. Note that showers and storms won’t happen necessarily at locations depicted. This is simply internal model guidance visualizing this potential.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon into the evening hours. A brief, spin-up tornado will be the main concern for coastal areas. A few of the stronger storms may become capable of producing isolated instances of damaging straight line winds. The risk of large hail today is very low. The risk of flash flooding is also low, as this will likely NOT be a long-duration rain event for any given spot. You can see why flash flooding very likely won’t be an issue in the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) below…

NEXT RZW UPDATE… Since I’m not expecting widespread issues, this will be the one and only RZW Exec update issued for this event. I’ll have plenty of content posted here in the RZWeather app and across our social platforms in the hours ahead. As always, if we have tornado warnings for any part of our primary coverage area, I’ll be providing live streaming coverage here in the app and across our platforms.

Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a good Sunday!

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL NOON… RZW Exec members, good morning! This severe weather event is kicking off now, thus this will be my final update here in RZW Exec as my focus shifts to our public products. Please hang with me throughout the day for updates. Not much has changed from our previous detailed Sunday discussion… Isolated tornadoes will be possible, especially in coastal counties, throughout the day. Damaging straight line winds will become possible this afternoon into the evening hours as a squall line of thunderstorms moves through. Heavy rain is likely at times throughout the day. Projected rain amounts over the next 48-72 hours have been adjusted even higher. Most spots are likely to pick up 4-5″ of rain in total through Thursday. Flash flooding will be a very real concern.

Here is an updated view of the projected rainfall amounts across our area…

LEVEL 2 RISK… The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma decided a Level 2 (out of 5) “slight” risk is warranted today due to the potential for a few tornadoes. I think their upgrade is probably a good decision, as we could see a few, brief tornadoes today. The supercell thunderstorms I’ve observed this morning in the Gulf from the time I woke up (around 4:30AM) have really been “overachievers” in terms of their strength. We’ll have to see if this trend continues, but if it does, we could have several tornadoes in coastal counties before this event ends this evening. As always, if we have tornado warnings, we’ll be providing our live streaming coverage across our platforms and in the RedZone Weather app.

FINAL RZW EXEC UPDATE… Again, I’ll have PLENTY of updates in the public-facing section of the RZW app and across social media as well. Please join me there for the latest. This event is just getting started.

Let me know if you have any questions or specific concerns. Have a good Monday & stay safe!

STRONG STORMS & HEAVY RAIN LIKELY ON MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday afternoon! Heavy rain and a few strong to severe thunderstorms will make Monday, November 12 an active weather day across south Alabama and northwest Florida. While much of the local area remains in the Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk zone to potentially see a few strong to severe storms capable of producing a few tornadoes, the risk of heavy rain and flash flooding continues to increase. We’ve adjusted projected rainfall amounts even higher. Vast majority of the local area will pick up 3 to 4 inches of rain, with some spots likely getting upwards of 5 inches of total rainfall.

POTENTIAL HAZARD ASSESSMENT

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE… There will be brief window for tornadic development on Monday. 9AM to 5PM will be the core risk time for a few tornadoes. The greatest tornado risk will happen in the small supercell storms that form out ahead of the main squall line that will pass by. Supercell development will be possible as early as 9AM and extend into the early evening hours. There could be a few brief, spin-up tornadoes in the main line of storms that passes in the afternoon/evening hours.

TORNADO RISK… Marginal. Level 1 out of 5. Areas near and south of Citronelle, Tensaw, Castleberry, Andalusia, and Opp have the greatest tornado risk. These are the areas outlined in the Storm Prediction Center’s Level 1 risk zone, depicted in the graphic below.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE… The risk of damaging straight line winds will occur as the main, squall line of storms passes through our area in the afternoon and evening hours. Note that once the squall line moves by a given location, the severe weather risk will come to an end. 1PM to 6PM will be the core risk timeframe for the potential of damaging straight line winds.

DAMAGING WIND RISK… Marginal. Level 1 out of 5.

HEAVY RAIN LIKELY… This very well could become the headline risk tomorrow with this system as there will be some areas that have 5 inches of rainfall before all is said and done. Vast majority of us across south Alabama & NW Florida will receive 3-4″ of rain. This will be a good, soaking rain across the region.

FLASH FLOODING RISK… Slight. Level 2 out of 5.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING

MAIN RISK IN AFTERNOON… There is somewhat of a mismatch of timing in the potential risks on Monday, as specifically detailed in the assessment above. The big takeaway is that strong storms will be possible 9AM to 5PM, with the core risk being in the early afternoon hours. The risk of flash flooding will not end at 5PM as heavy rain will likely continue well into the overnight hours and extend into Tuesday. Below, see the 3 kilometer North American Model projected radar valid at 3PM showing an advancing line of strong storms moving across our region.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… We will have a special LIVE edition of the Sunday #rzw forecast video that will air within the next hour. Please continue to monitor our public-facing products on social media and in the RedZone Weather app. The final RZW Exec update about this severe weather potential will be posted by 10AM on Monday. If you have specific questions or concerns, don’t hesitate to reach out. Thanks and have a good Veterans Day holiday.