ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY… RZW Exec members, good morning! The Storm Prediction Center has included the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) “slight risk” zone to potentially see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday, particularly in the morning hours. Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms will be the main concerns. Unlike some of the previous severe weather events over the last few weeks, this risk covers a larger area and all local areas are now included in the Level 2 risk zone.
MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK TO OUR WEST
Much of the Arklatex region is included in the Level 3 risk zone valid for Friday. Southern Arkansas could have a few potentially strong tornadoes during the afternoon/evening hours of Friday into Friday night. You can see in the graphic below that SPC has opted to include the western periphery of our area in their Level 1 risk on Friday. That is because we may have a few thunderstorms as early as LATE Friday evening. I’m not expecting severe weather issues in south Alabama and northwest Florida until Saturday, however.
STANDARD SLIGHT RISK FOR SATURDAY
It’s a classic “high shear, low CAPE” cold season severe weather potential we have setting up for Saturday. This likely will not be a high impact severe weather event, but there definitely could be scattered instances of trees being blown down and a few isolated tornadoes. Much of Alabama and all of northwest Florida is included in the Level 2 (out of 5), “slight risk” zone valid for Saturday. All areas along and south of a line from Aliceville to Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Talladega to Roanoke are included. Note that the entirety of the local area is included in this Level 2 risk zone.
STORM TIMING
Isolated showers could happen as early as Friday afternoon across west Alabama. More consistent rain may happen Friday evening into the overnight hours of Saturday morning. The severe weather risk, however, will extend from 4AM to 4PM on Saturday, with the greatest risk being from 9AM to 2PM. That is when the greatest combination of severe weather ingredients will be in place across our region.
The image below is a model capture valid at 1PM on Saturday. Note that this is a model, meaning timing and placement won’t happen exactly like this. All major weather models have a “look” similar to this, showing the potential for strong to severe storms in our local area midday on Saturday.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS
Isolated tornadoes and damaging straight line winds will be the main concerns in the stronger storms. Some weather models are depicting the potential for a few supercell thunderstorms late Saturday morning. Any supercells that become discrete and isolated will have the greatest tornado potential. Definitely something to monitor as we get closer to this potential event. The risk of large hail is low, but not zero. The hail risk will happen in any supercells that can become isolated. Flash flooding impacts look to be negligible at this time. Below is the latest Quantiative Precipitation Forecast, showing rain totals over the next 5 days. Some spots in Okaloosa and Walton counties could pick up over 3 inches of rainfall in total, while rainfall amounts are expected to be less across west Alabama.
NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE
Please let me know if you have any specific decision support-related questions. Public updates have already started and will continue during the lead up to this event. My next RZW Exec update will be posted on Friday by 3PM at the latest. Have a great evening & let me know if you have any questions!