SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY

THURSDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK… RZW Exec partners, good evening! The severe weather risk continues to evolve and set up for Thursday, November 1. Much of Wednesday will be dry and nice for Halloween/trick-or-treaters across the region. There could be an isolated shower or two in Clarke, Choctaw, Washington, and Mobile counties in west Alabama, but vast majority of our region will be warm and dry on Wednesday. The severe weather potential is in place for Thursday, particularly during the daytime hours. A few tornadoes will be possible, but clearly the greatest risk will be due to damaging straight line winds capable of knocking down a few trees across the region.

NOTE ABOUT RISK LEVELS… I would strongly encourage everyone to not get so caught up in the risk numbers/colors and instead focus on the potential impacts (which in this case are damaging straight line winds and isolated, brief tornadoes). Most public questions I get in situations like this have to do with the risk number/color. There IS a chance SPC will up this risk to a Level 3/enhanced/orange risk in their overnight update, but the impacts likely won’t change that much. The one caveat to this statement is IF the tornado parameters rise for potential isolated supercell thunderstorms out ahead of the main line of storms. THAT could be a potential “game changer,” but for now, the overall risk of supercell storms seems pretty low. Good news. We’ll keep monitoring trends and alert you during the daytime hours of Wednesday, if need be.

TIMING OF STORMS… There is high confidence at this point that the greatest chance of severe weather, including the risk of a few brief tornadoes, will happen between 9AM and 5PM on Thursday in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. The severe weather risk will end behind the squall line from west to east. The timing/risk levels is depicted in the graphic below.

TIMING & RISK LEVELS

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… A QLCS/squall line will move into southwest Alabama late in the morning hours of Thursday. Damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms and maybe a brief, spin-up tornado or two will be the main concerns. A widespread, damaging severe weather/tornado outbreak seems unlikely as of now. Widespread flash flooding issues should be limited as the storms will be racing to the east at a rapid clip. 1-3″ of rain is likely areawide.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… Our public messaging will continue today, tonight, and all day on Wednesday about this severe weather potential for Thursday. My next update for RZW Exec members will be posted here in the Tactical Ops Room by 5PM on Wednesday, October 31 (tomorrow). Please let me know if you have any specific questions or concerns. Have a great evening!

ANOTHER POTENTIAL TORNADO RISK… We’ve had a very few active weather months with that trend continuing this week. A cold front moving in from the northwest will create at least some potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday. I expect the Storm Prediction Center to introduce a Level 1 or Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk for our local area valid for Thursday. They will issue this in their next round of updates overnight, so this RZW Exec post serves as an “early heads up” that our severe weather messaging will likely be ramping up over the next 48-72 hours.

TIMING OF STORMS… Most model guidance points to a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS, aka a squall line) setting up to our west in Mississippi and tracking to the east in the morning hours of Thursday. This means that the greatest chance of severe weather, including the risk of a few brief tornadoes, will happen between 7AM and 4PM on Thursday.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms and maybe a brief, spin-up tornado or two will be the main concerns. A widespread, damaging severe weather/tornado outbreak seems unlikely as of now. Flash flooding issues should be limited as the storms will be racing to the east at a rapid clip.

COMPARED TO LAST WEEK… This is a similar weather pattern setup to our severe weather potential that happened last week, but I do think that this system has the potential to be a bit more potent and produce a few more storms, comparatively, as parameters off the model data seem a bit more robust and supportive of a few stronger storms.

RISK LEVELS… Now that we are entering secondary severe weather/tornado season around our area, it’s a good time to review the risk levels and what they mean. Below is a review graphic explaining the different risk levels. Instead of using proprietary, subjective indices (like Tor:Con and some others that are subjective and terrible in my opinion), I use the industry standard convective outlook forecasts produced by the incredible meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… We will likely begin our public messaging about this event as early as this evening. My next update for RZW Exec members will be posted here in the Tactical Ops Room by 7PM on Tuesday, October 30 (tomorrow). As always, please let me know if you have any specific questions or concerns. Have a great evening!

FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK… RZW Exec members, good morning! The forecast for today has not changed: A few brief, spin-up tornadoes are possible today into tonight near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. There is no tornado risk for inland areas. Heavy rain is likely at times throughout the day into tonight across coastal AND inland areas. I’ll be posting the following forecast discussion publicly around 9:05AM with a Medium-Level Alert push notification here in the RZWeather app. Here is an exclusive preview for you…

MORNING SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR COAST THIS EVENING… There continues to be a low-end, marginal chance of a brief tornado or two near the immediate Alabama and northwest Florida beaches this evening into the overnight hours. The tornado risk this evening will be confined to the coast. Inland areas have no severe weather risk, as the air is more stable north of I-10. The big story for most of us throughout the day will be heavy rain.

ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE NEAR BEACHES… If you’re in Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Mary Esther, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, or Destin, your severe weather risk remains very low. It’s not zero, but the overall risk of a tornado happening in any of these areas remains very low. The key in these areas will be if the warm front can move north into these areas. If that happens, the tornado risk would marginally increase. I’ll be watching trends throughout the day. Regardless of tornado development, heavy rain that could lead to instances of flash flooding will be happening throughout the day into tonight.

LITTLE TO NO SEVERE RISK INLAND… If in or near Brewton, Atmore, Thomasville, Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Andalusia, Opp, Bay Minette, Chatom, Butler, or Citronelle, your severe weather risk today into tonight is basically near zero. The storms that happen in these areas will be elevated in nature and very likely NOT severe. Heavy rain will still happen intermittently in these inland communities throughout the day into tonight.

COVERAGE POLICY… Long-time viewers and readers know that anytime we have a tornado warning issued for any part of our 12 county primary coverage area (defined here) we go LIVE across our platforms, bringing you the very latest.

LIVE STREAMING RADAR… Since this will be an active weather today with a very low-end risk of severe weather, we will stream live, uninterrupted radar coverage in the Radar tab of the RedZone Weather app starting later this morning around 11:45AM. That’s when the radar is looping, but I’m not on camera. I’ll come on camera only if severe weather/tornado warnings happen.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to set up your customized alerts in the RedZone Weather app before warnings are issued! Check out the Alerts tab (lower right corner in the RZWeather app) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive straight from me.

UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY… I’ll have plenty of updates in the RedZone Weather app and on Twitter in the hours ahead. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a great Thursday!

TORNADO RISK VERY LOW FOR P.M. THURSDAY… RZW Exec members, good evening! There is strong agreement that there will be little to no issues, in terms of a severe weather threat, for Thursday into Thursday night. Out of a complete abundance of caution and due to the respect I have for the North American Model (NAM), we will continue to publicly suggest a VERY LOW (not zero) tornado risk for the immediate beach areas for Thursday evening into the overnight hours. I would suggest at this point there is an 80-90% chance that no tornado warnings will be needed with this event. That means, however, that there is a very low 10-20% chance that we could have a brief, spin-up tornado. This is completely conditional, based on the placement of the northward-advancing warm front from the Gulf. Odds suggest that the front won’t cross the coast to the north, which is a good thing! I’ll be up late on Thursday monitoring radar trends closely, just in case we happen to have a tornado warning near the coast. It should be heavily emphasized that the severe weather risk for inland areas (basically all areas north of I-10) is at or near zero.

Confidence remains high that this will be a heavy rain event with some nuisance-type flash flooding issues. This won’t be a major flash flood event, but I can’t rule out isolated instances of flash flooding both near the coast and over inland areas.

SEVERITY… Intermittent times of heavy rain will almost certainly happen on Thursday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. This means that isolated flash flooding will be possible in spots. The tornado risk remains NEAR ZERO for inland counties. The tornado risk near the immediate coastline remains VERY LOW, but not zero.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED… The low-end tornado risk, if it materializes, will set up in the southern part of coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa). The low-end risk for flash flooding will be areawide, including inland areas.

TIMELINE OF IMPACTS… Rain and general thunderstorms will be possible starting early on Thursday. If an isolated tornadoes happen near the coast, the risk is greatest between 3PM and 11PM on Thursday. Rain and storms will move out late Thursday night into early Friday. Clearing skies are expected starting midday on Friday.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… This is be the final update for this event in RZW Exec. Signficant issues are NOT expected due to this passing area of low pressure. We will continue our public messaging about this potential, low-end severe weather risk for coastal areas on Twitter and in public-facing sections of the RZWeather app today into tomorrow. As always, let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

TORNADO RISK LESSENS FOR THURSDAY… RZW Exec members, good evening! Confidence is higher today that the tornado risk across coastal Alabama and northwest Florida will be quite limited. Yesterday, there was a good bit of model divergence concerning the extent of the tornado potential across coastal areas. Most models keep the center of the area of low pressure to our south and offshore. This means that vast majority of our area would be NORTH of the accompanying warm front, meaning odds are we won’t have any significant severe weather issues to contend with in south Alabama or northwest Florida. That being said, the tornado risk at the coast is not zero just yet. Because of this, we will continue to advertise a “low-end risk” of tornadic storms near the immediate Alabama and northwest Florida coastline for Thursday. Rainfall will be the big story, with some spots getting 2-3″ of rain in total.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS… A brief, isolated tornado or two will be possible, mainly along and south of Interstate 10 in Alabama and northwest Florida on Thursday into Thursday night. There is a significant chance that the tornado risk will NOT materialize due to the placement of the warm front being to our south. Heavy rain, however, is likely throughout the day on Thursday, meaning isolated instances of flash flooding could become possible. Regardless of if the tornado risk materializes, heavy rain and flash flooding concerns will be in place. You can see in the model output image (below) that Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE, aka atmospheric instability) values will be very low across vast majority of our area valid at 7PM on Thursday, with the higher CAPE values located offshore. Instability is one ingredient that can significantly influence whether storms become severe.

SEVERITY… Intermittent times of heavy rain will almost certainly happen on Thursday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. This means that isolated flash flooding will be possible in spots. The tornado risk remains NEAR ZERO for inland counties. The tornado risk near the immediate coastline remains LOW, but not zero.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED… The low-end tornado risk, if it materializes, will set up in the southern part of coastal counties (Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia [FL], Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa). The low-end risk for flash flooding will be areawide, including inland areas.

TIMELINE OF IMPACTS… Rain and general thunderstorms are possible as early as 1AM Thursday. If an isolated tornadoes happen near the coast, the risk is greatest between 10AM and 10PM on Thursday. Rain and storms will move out late Thursday night into early Friday. Clearing skies are expected starting midday on Friday.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE… My next RZW Exec update will be posted by 5PM tomorrow (Wednesday, October 24). We will continue our public messaging about this potential, low-end severe weather risk for coastal areas on Twitter and in public-facing sections of the RZWeather app today into tomorrow. As always, let me know if you have any questions or concerns.