TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK… Good evening, RZW Exec partners! I wish I had better news to end your week with, but confidence is growing that there will be a tropical system potentially developing in the western Caribbean Sea or southeastern Gulf of Mexico late next week.

This is the graphic (above) that I will LIKELY be posting publicly this evening announcing the low, yet growing, potential of a tropical storm forming next week. I say, “likely,” as I’m watching the new model data be issued right now. Depending on the new data, the main message I’ll likely be communicating publicly this evening is:

This is remains a low-end potential, with very little I can give at this point in terms of specifics. Anytime there is a potential tropical threat in the Gulf of Mexico, obviously this warrants monitoring closely by our region. There is substantial model disagreement on when and where this system will end up, but there’s enough consistency at this point to at least mention the possibility.

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TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK… Good evening RZW Exec partners! There is a chance that we could have tropical development (a tropical storm, or maybe even a hurricane) next week in the Gulf of Mexico. This specific weather setup is strikingly similar to the one that produced Subtropical Storm Alberto only a few weeks ago. We’re still 7-10 days out from when the system could enter the southern Gulf of Mexico. There also is ample model uncertainty, indicating that it’s not reasonable or prudent for me to bring this to the public just yet.

GFS ON BOARD… Below is a look at the Global Forecast System (GFS) model valid at 7AM CDT on Thursday, June 14. Again, this is ONE model, meaning we should take it with a proverbial grain of salt. A forecast is derived from multiple models, and this is only one. The GFS model has consistently indicated the potential of a tropical storm in the southern/central Gulf of Mexico over the last few runs. We note the ECMWF (Euro model) has a completely different solution, showing no tropical storm. Just a few weeks ago, the GFS was quicker to pick up on Subtropical Storm Alberto days in advance compared to the Euro, thus this is something that warrants our attention over the next few runs.

This will likely warrant a public mention as early as tomorrow (Thursday, June 7) evening. I’ll bring you an update here in RZW Exec before that happens.

DEPLOYMENT CONTINUES… I’m still in the process of deploying RZW Exec, meaning the program is still not completely operational. These early posts are for everyone I have involved so far. I’ll be sure to let everyone know once our deployment is complete, likely in mid-July. Thanks for your patience and thanks to everyone who is involved thus far.

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ALBERTO FORMS… Good morning to all of our RZW Exec partners. I’m still in the process of deploying the RZW Exec program, so we won’t be utilizing the system for this particular tropical system. I did want to give you an early heads up that the National Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories at 10AM CDT on Subtropical Storm Alberto, located in the western Caribbean Sea. This system will move north in the days ahead, bringing the potential for 12-15″ of rain to south Alabama and northwest Florida.

More updates will be posted in the public-facing section of the app in the hours ahead. Thanks for being a part of RZW Exec.

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FLASH FLOODING FOCUS… I’ll be pushing the “flash flooding potential/heavy rain” message pretty hard tonight across our platforms this evening. Regardless of development, this area of low pressure will aid in the development of showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday. NWS Mobile has already opted to include southern half of our area in “significant” potential zone for flash flooding. I strongly support this decision, based on latest model data.

Severe weather will be possible this weekend across our area, including a few tornadic storms, largely dependent on track of area of low pressure/tropical storm.

Full public update coming at 8PM.

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RZW Exec partners… Good evening! I’ll have a special live video on Facebook this evening around 8:15PM discussing the potential tropical storm formation setting up in the southern Gulf. Lots of uncertainty, but one thing seems pretty clear at this point: The system will likely not become a strong tropical storm or hurricane before landfall. Dry air, shear, and sea surface temps near 82° are working in our favor across the Gulf of Mexico.

Our main message this evening will focus on the impacts regardless of if the system becomes a tropical storm (or not)… Increased rain chances this weekend that could lead to flash flooding across the region will be the main concern along with potentially deadly rip currents at area beaches.

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