TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK… Good evening RZW Exec partners! There is a chance that we could have tropical development (a tropical storm, or maybe even a hurricane) next week in the Gulf of Mexico. This specific weather setup is strikingly similar to the one that produced Subtropical Storm Alberto only a few weeks ago. We’re still 7-10 days out from when the system could enter the southern Gulf of Mexico. There also is ample model uncertainty, indicating that it’s not reasonable or prudent for me to bring this to the public just yet.
GFS ON BOARD… Below is a look at the Global Forecast System (GFS) model valid at 7AM CDT on Thursday, June 14. Again, this is ONE model, meaning we should take it with a proverbial grain of salt. A forecast is derived from multiple models, and this is only one. The GFS model has consistently indicated the potential of a tropical storm in the southern/central Gulf of Mexico over the last few runs. We note the ECMWF (Euro model) has a completely different solution, showing no tropical storm. Just a few weeks ago, the GFS was quicker to pick up on Subtropical Storm Alberto days in advance compared to the Euro, thus this is something that warrants our attention over the next few runs.
This will likely warrant a public mention as early as tomorrow (Thursday, June 7) evening. I’ll bring you an update here in RZW Exec before that happens.
DEPLOYMENT CONTINUES… I’m still in the process of deploying RZW Exec, meaning the program is still not completely operational. These early posts are for everyone I have involved so far. I’ll be sure to let everyone know once our deployment is complete, likely in mid-July. Thanks for your patience and thanks to everyone who is involved thus far.