SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND… RZW Exec members, good Tuesday morning! We have a potentially significant round of severe weather ahead for Saturday, January 11. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a rare, Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone **five days out** from this potential event. I am growing increasingly concerned about the possibility of a few significant/strong tornadoes across parts of the Deep South (including Alabama & NW Florida) on Saturday, although I will refrain (for now) from using that specific language in our public forecast messaging to ensure model trends and guidance continues to show that potential closer to the event. There still is plenty of time for the trends to show a weaker solution. There also is a potential for a stronger event that would support the need for further outlook upgrades across our area. Please let this message serve as a very early “heads up” that we could have a hazardous round of severe weather with tornadoes being the primary concern. Here is the information I will be posting publicly within the hour.

OUTLOOK UPGRADE: LEVEL 3 ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR SATURDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of Alabama, Mississippi, and parts of northwest Florida and Louisiana into their Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid for Saturday. Parameters continue to suggest an increasing chance of hazards, including tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, flash flooding, and large hail. While details are still coming into focus, there is increasing confidence that this could be a significant severe weather event with a potentially enhanced tornado risk across parts of the Deep South.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING SATURDAY… This is HIGHLY subject to change, so please check back with me in the days ahead. Right now, our best estimate of when severe weather will be most likely across our region in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be during the daytime hours of SATURDAY, January 11. Further data may cause that timeframe to be changed. In addition, rain will begin long before the risk of strong to severe storms. Rain is likely across our area at times on Friday.

APP ALERTS… Many consistent updates will be posted over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. Everyone should toggle ON Medium-Level Alerts. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.

I’ll have more details and updates in the RedZone Weather app later today. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a good Tuesday afternoon!

RISK OF STRONG STORMS THURSDAY IN P.M. HOURS… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday evening. Happy New Year! 2020 is set to start off with a chance of strong to severe storms on Thursday. The big takeaways from the long form post (below) is that we have somewhat of a “double barrel risk” on Thursday into early Friday.

Confidence is LOW that we may have a few supercell storms develop tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening.

Confidence is HIGH that we will have a line of weakening thunderstorms late Thursday evening that will move across our region.

The Storm Prediction Center maintains our area in their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal risk, for now. Outlook upgrades will be possible overnight. Please let me know if you have any specific decision support needs. Have a great evening! See the information we will debut publicly in the next 30 minutes below.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS… The entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida remains involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid Thursday evening into Friday morning. The two concerns will be a main line of thunderstorms that will likely weaken as it approaches our area from the west late Thursday evening. Before we get to that, there is also a conditional risk of a few discrete, supercell thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes on Thursday afternoon. While the core risk appears to be setting up just to our west across parts of southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana, we all have at least a low-end risk across all parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Let’s look at details.

CONDITIONAL FIRST ROUND OF STORMS… The first risk of severe weather on Thursday will be a CONDITIONAL risk of strong to severe storms in the afternoon and early evening hours. By “conditional,” I mean certain things will have to happen in order for this first threat to materialize at all. There is a chance this first threat won’t ever happen, but more than a few models are advertising this potential, thus I believe it is wise to at least mention the possibility. The concern is that we could have some isolated, discrete supercell thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes across south Alabama and northwest Florida. If the cap can break, storms will grow to be quite tall in the atmosphere, potentially leading to severe storms that have the potential to produce a few tornadoes. Looking at model guidance, I would suggest there is a 30-40% chance of this first threat materializing with a 60-70% chance of us just having a few general showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and early evening. I’ll be closely monitoring radar trends tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. We will bring you the latest in the RedZone Weather app.

MAIN LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES THURSDAY EVENING… Thunderstorms will develop to our west tomorrow (Thursday) morning. This will probably be a line (QLCS/squall line) of storms that forms across west Mississippi and east-central Louisiana. This line of storms will move eastward throughout the day and will probably be set to move into the far western stretches of south Alabama by 8PM tomorrow evening. The line of storms will move across our area from 8PM Thursday to 6AM Friday. If storms train over the same areas, we could have some flash flooding issues set up. The greatest chance of this will be over west Alabama in Clarke, Wilcox, Marengo, Choctaw, and Washington counties. This line of storms will likely be weakening as it enters our area and ultimately runs out of instability to work with.

GREATER RISK ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI & EAST LOUISIANA… The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) introduced a Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk of scattered severe storms for parts of southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. These are the focus areas where the “severe weather ingredients” will be primed to produce tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. We note there is a possibility SPC will upgrade at least part of our area into this Level 2 risk zone in their overnight update. We’ll bring you the latest when it happens in the RedZone Weather app. Be sure to check back with me for the latest on our local risk level on Thursday morning in the forecast video.

SEVERE WEATHER & RAIN TIMING… While a few rain showers are happening this morning across our region and just to our west, the core of the rain issues won’t happen until later today into tonight. There is a good chance some of us will remain dry throughout the day, although I can’t rule out isolated showers pretty much all day. The core of the severe weather issues will happen from 4PM Thursday to 1AM Friday, although as mentioned in the second paragraph (above) there is a conditional risk of supercells that could produce tornadoes as early as 1PM.

MAIN CONCERNS: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… The hazards we’ll be most concerned about with this event will be the tornado potential and the chance of stronger storms that could produce damaging straight line wind gusts. Flash flooding could also become an issue, primarily across west Alabama in areas west of the Alabama River.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT… Why all the nasty weather potential? It’s because of a surface low developing to our west tonight across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This area of low pressure will tap into an impulse/shortwave moving by in the atmosphere on Thursday, leading to a chance of strong to severe storms.

APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Thursday. See you then!

LOW-END RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Friday afternoon! We’re looking ahead to the latter half of the weekend when we could have a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms move across our area. A cold front will approach our area from the northwest on Sunday. This frontal boundary will be the focus zone for where a few strong to severe storms may fire up as it crosses our area. I think, based on model trends over the last 72 hours, this is one of the more meager severe weather setups we’ve had, thus I am not expecting widespread issues. The main concerns will be a brief, spin-up tornado or two and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. Again, not expecting these hazards to be numerous across the region, but the risk is “high enough” to warrant at least mentioning it throughout the weekend. No flash flooding issues are expected and large hail is not expected. I will continue to monitor parameters as there is a chance this risk could increase somewhat. Below is the post we will push publicly within the hour. As always, let me know if you have specific questions. Have a nice Friday evening!

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk zone valid from Sunday into early Monday. Model guidance is now highlighting the possibility of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms moving across our area. The main concerns will be brief, spin-up tornadoes and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. The latest guidance suggests this severe weather potential will happen a bit later than initially expected, likely late Sunday into early Monday. Severe weather parameters seem to be increasing somewhat, thus we will need to monitor this potential as we go into the weekend. Be sure to check back with me Saturday morning for our next detailed update that will be posted by 7:15AM. Let’s look at details.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR ALL OF OUR LOCAL AREA… SPC includes the entire state of Alabama and all of northwest Florida in their Level 1 (out of 5) low-end, marginal severe weather risk zone. This risk zone also includes parts of southern Tennessee, much of eastern Mississippi, and the western Georgia. There is a chance a slightly higher risk level may be warranted for parts of our area on Saturday.

MAIN CONCERNS: LOW-END TORNADO RISK, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… There is a concern we could have a few discrete supercell storms out ahead of the main squall line that develops along the advancing frontal boundary, although this idea is certainly NOT set in stone. If models continue to show that potential (for supercells), we will need to adjust risk levels even higher. For now, we’re expecting a line of strong to severe storms that moves across our area from northwest to southeast late in the day on Sunday extending into the very early morning hours of Monday.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING: LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY… 5PM Sunday to 5AM Monday is the 12 hour window in which storms will be most likely to be strong or severe. The core risk will likely be from 9PM Sunday to 2AM Monday. This timing will probably need to be adjusted in the next 48 hours before this event. Please check back with me tomorrow (Saturday) morning for the latest.

I’ll have more details posted in the RedZone Weather app later today, tonight, and on Saturday as this severe weather potential gets closer. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a nice evening!

RZW EXEC: FORECAST ON TRACK; STORMS TO THE WEST… RZW Exec members, good Monday afternoon to you! The big headline right now is our forecast remains on track. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are now happening to our west across parts of Mississippi and Louisiana. This system is moving toward our local area and will reach parts of west Alabama this evening. The timeframe has not changed. We are expecting the core risk to happen between 9PM tonight and 9AM on Tuesday, although there could be a few strong to severe storms well in advance of the main line of storms this evening. Below is the post we will debut publicly shortly. Please let me know if you have any decision-support needs this afternoon.

LEVEL 4 RISK TO OUR WEST; SEVERE STORMS LIKELY LATER LOCALLY… The Storm Prediction Center has added an uncommon Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone to parts of southwest Mississippi and Louisiana on this Monday afternoon. The severe weather risk locally across south Alabama and northwest Florida is set to ramp up late this evening into the overnight hours. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail will all be possible in the stronger storms this evening into Tuesday morning. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to receive urgent weather warnings this evening, tonight, and something that will wake you up when you go to sleep tonight. A few midday notes are below.

TORNADO WARNINGS TO THE WEST… There have already been several tornado warnings across northern Louisiana and west Mississippi this morning. We note a new Tornado Watch is now in effect for these areas until 6PM tonight. This new tornado watch is right over the same areas that have the highest tornado risk today near Jackson (MS), Alexandria (LA), Baton Rouge (LA), McComb (MS), and Monroe (LA).

TORNADO WATCH LIKELY LOCALLY LATER… I expect a Tornado Watch to likely be issued for parts of our area later today, probably at some point after 5PM. Remember, a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for the development of tornadoes whereas a WARNING means a tornado has been sighted or confirmed by meteorologists using doppler radar.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON… Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across west Alabama over the next several hours. This means that intermittent rain and storms could happen as early as 2PM across parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Mobile, and Baldwin counties. The overall severe weather risk will increase later this evening, however, and I’m not expecting many (if any) warnings locally now through 3PM.

Below is some review information that have been tweaked slightly to reflect the latest updates.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THIS THIS EVENING… While the tornado risk will be highest in the overnight hours as a strong to severe line of thunderstorms moves across our region, I can’t rule out supercell thunderstorms that develop well out ahead of the main line this afternoon. We encourage everyone to be “severe weather ready” over the next few hours *just in case* we have storms firing out ahead of the main line of storms. There certainly is no guarantee that discrete supercells will form in this environment, but we note that some models have alluded to that possibility.

CORE SEVERE WEATHER RISK HAPPENS OVERNIGHT… The greatest risk of severe weather with this event will happen tonight from 9PM to 9AM on Tuesday. There could be somewhat of a “messy storm mode,” in that this could be a squall line of storms, but we very well could have a squall line with more supercell-like structures involved. This could potentially increase the overall tornado risk across the area. We will know more about the storm mode overnight once the actual storms develop later today back to our west across Mississippi and Louisiana.

MAIN HAZARDS TONIGHT: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS… The tornado risk locally tonight into Tuesday early morning will be highest across parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties where a “greater combination of atmospheric ingredients” looks to set up. If you’re in these counties, be aware that your tornado potential looks a bit higher. We ALL, however, have at least some risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. There also could be some large hail involved in the stronger storms. Flash flooding could briefly become an issue as the main line of storms passes through our region. ALL modes of severe weather will be possible with this event!

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… 9PM tonight to 9AM Tuesday looks to be the 12 hour window when the main line of storms will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Core timeframe looks to be from 11PM tonight to 5AM Tuesday. Rain showers may happen earlier this evening and extend into Tuesday afternoon long after the severe weather risk has come to an end.

LEVEL 4 RISK FOR PARTS OF MS & LA TO OUR WEST… Portions of Mississippi and Louisiana are now involved in an uncommon Level 4 (out of 5) high-end severe weather risk. This is driven by the potential for multiple, significant tornadoes in southwest Mississippi and northeast Louisiana.

LEVEL 3 RISK FOR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA… The Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone includes areas near Butler, Pennington, Demopolis, Eutaw, Livingston, Reform, Gordo, York, Geiger, Forkland, and surrounding areas in west-central Alabama. Jackson (MS), Baton Rouge, Hattiesburg, Meridian, Alexandria (LA) are also included in this higher Level 3 risk zone. This enhanced risk is used by the Storm Prediction Center to designate where the better combination of “severe weather ingredients” is set to come together.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL AREA… ALL of our local area in south Alabama is now included in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk for severe storms. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Milton, Pace, Pensacola Beach, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fairhope, Foley, Daphne, Loxley, Silverhill, Bay Minette, Thomasville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Chatom, Leroy, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lyeffion, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Andalusia, Carolina, River Falls, Molino, Jay, Century, Destin, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Opp, Florala, Navarre, Geneva, Enterprise, Elba, Daleville, Dothan, Fort Rucker, Eglin AFB, and Eufaula. We note much of central and north Alabama is also included in this risk zone. Birmingham, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Alex City, Selma, Camden, Prattville, Clanton, Hoover, Centreville, Cullman, Jasper, Boaz, Oneonta, Fayette, Russellville, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Florence, and Hamilton are involved in the Level 2 risk area.

SHARPLY COLDER ON TUESDAY… The cold front partially responsible for all of this severe weather action will move through our region on Tuesday morning behind the main line of storms. Temperatures will turn sharply colder throughout the day on Tuesday. The technical high temperature on Tuesday will happen just after midnight, with temperatures declining all day. We’ll be in the 40s across south Alabama and northwest Florida by Tuesday afternoon, falling into the upper-30s by the late evening hours.

COOL, DRY MIDWEEK; BELOW FREEZING IN EARLY MORNING HOURS… Cold, dry air will have an unfettered path into our region from the northwest after the passage of the cold front this week. We expect multiple nights with below freezing temperatures. See the 7 Day Forecast graphic in the attached video for more info.

MORE RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… Our next chance of rain after Tuesday looks to be Friday into Saturday when we could have a few showers around. We’ll focus on this weather system more in the days ahead.

APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day into the night in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts. Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Be sure to check back with me throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest information.

I’ll have many more updates this afternoon and this evening in the RedZone Weather app. Please check with me there for the latest information. I’ll be back on Facebook Live and in our live video stream if/when tornado warnings are required locally. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a good Monday evening and stay safe!

SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR MONDAY, DECEMBER 16… RZW Exec members, good Sunday evening! There is a growing chance that we will have a round of strong to severe thunderstorms move across our region tomorrow (Monday, December 16) into the early morning hours of Tuesday. I am concerned about the increasing parameters that could support a few tornadoes. We will have a potential for a “double barrel” threat, meaning one round of storms in the afternoon then another round overnight into Tuesday morning. One thing to keep in mind with this system is that unlike the previous severe weather events we have had over the last few weeks, instability in the atmosphere will actually INCREASE overnight into Tuesday. This will allow storms to remain severe long after sunset Monday evening. Please see the public details below and let me know if you have any questions or concerns.

SEVERE STORMS LIKELY MONDAY P.M. INTO EARLY TUESDAY… Tornadoes and damaging winds will be possible Monday into early Tuesday as a potent weather system moves across south Alabama and northwest Florida. A Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk is in place for parts of west Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana with the nearly all of our local area involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk.There is some concern we could have supercell thunderstorms as early as Monday afternoon, but that is a low confidence scenario. The bigger concern with much higher confidence is that we will have severe storms Monday night into early Tuesday morning. This severe weather episode will likely manifest in the form of a strong to severe line of storms with embedded supercell-like structures. What does this mean for you? It means we all have a risk of experiencing damaging straight line wind gusts with a chance of a few isolated tornadoes Monday into Tuesday morning. The big takeaway is we encourage everyone to have a way to get the urgent weather warnings that may be needed tomorrow! NOW is the time to make sure you have a way to get the warnings. Once a warning is issued, please do something about it and get to a safe place. That is the summary, below are extensive details.

FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY… There is a chance we could have some early morning small showers in place across parts of south Alabama and northwest Florida. Instability should be too low to allow for any severe weather before Noon on Monday.

STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON… We note that some of the higher-resolution weather models are showing a potential for strong to severe storms to fire up Monday afternoon, well in advance of the main line of storms that is set to move through much later. IF this scenario happens, we would have to monitor for the potential for tornadoes and large hail in these discrete, isolated storms. While this potential is low confidence, it is still worth mentioning as the tornado risk would ramp up considerably for our area if this indeed happens. The overall severe weather risk later Monday into Tuesday has much higher confidence. The big headline here is we could potentially have multiple waves of severe weather with one happening Monday afternoon, then a longer duration wave Monday night into early Tuesday.

ISOLATED TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS ARE MAIN CONCERNS… The tornado risk locally Monday evening into Tuesday early morning will be highest across parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties where a “greater combination of atmospheric ingredients” looks to set up. If you’re in these counties, be aware that your tornado potential looks a bit higher. We ALL, however, have at least some risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. There also could be some large hail involved in the stronger storms. Flash flooding could briefly become an issue as the main line of storms passes through our region. ALL modes of severe weather will be possible with this event!

TIMING OF SEVERE STORMS & RAIN CHANCES… This has changed somewhat since last night. There is now a LOW confidence, conditional risk of severe storms from 1PM to 6PM Monday. If any storms happen Monday afternoon (and that’s a big IF at this point), they likely would come to an end in the early evening. We get a lull in the action until the late evening hours. 9PM Monday to 9AM Tuesday looks to be the 12 hour window when the main line of storms will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Core timeframe looks to be from 11PM Monday to 5AM Tuesday. Rain showers may happen earlier Monday evening and extend into Tuesday afternoon long after the severe weather risk has come to an end. Be sure to check back with me for updates Monday morning on the evolving severe weather timing!

LEVEL 3 RISK FOR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA… The Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone includes areas near Butler, Pennington, Demopolis, Eutaw, Livingston, Reform, Gordo, York, Geiger, Forkland, and surrounding areas in west-central Alabama. Jackson (MS), Baton Rouge, Hattiesburg, Meridian, Alexandria (LA) are also included in this higher Level 3 risk zone. This enhanced risk is used by the Storm Prediction Center to designate where the better combination of “severe weather ingredients” is set to come together.

LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA… Vast majority of our local area in south Alabama remains included in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk for severe storms. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Milton, Pace, Pensacola Beach, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fairhope, Foley, Daphne, Loxley, Silverhill, Bay Minette, Thomasville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Chatom, Leroy, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lyeffion, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Andalusia, Carolina, River Falls, Molino, Jay, and Century are all included in this Level 2 risk, where isolated severe storms may happen. We note much of central and north Alabama is also included in this risk zone. Birmingham, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Selma, Camden, Prattville, Clanton, Hoover, Centreville, Cullman, Jasper, Boaz, Oneonta, Fayette, Russellville, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Florence, and Hamilton are involved in the Level 2 risk area.

LEVEL 1 RISK FOR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA… SPC has decided to lower parts of Covington, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa into the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk. We note that all of southeast Alabama near Dothan, Enterprise, and Geneva is also included in this zone. This includes areas like Destin, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Opp, Florala, Navarre, Geneva, Enterprise, Elba, Daleville, Dothan, Fort Rucker, Eglin AFB, Eufaula, and Auburn (AL).

Please me know if you have any decision-support needs for this severe weather event. Please join us on Facebook Live and in the Live tab of the RedZone Weather app if/when tornado warnings are required for our local area. Have a nice evening!