RZW EXEC: FORECAST ON TRACK; STORMS TO THE WEST… RZW Exec members, good Monday afternoon to you! The big headline right now is our forecast remains on track. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are now happening to our west across parts of Mississippi and Louisiana. This system is moving toward our local area and will reach parts of west Alabama this evening. The timeframe has not changed. We are expecting the core risk to happen between 9PM tonight and 9AM on Tuesday, although there could be a few strong to severe storms well in advance of the main line of storms this evening. Below is the post we will debut publicly shortly. Please let me know if you have any decision-support needs this afternoon.
LEVEL 4 RISK TO OUR WEST; SEVERE STORMS LIKELY LATER LOCALLY… The Storm Prediction Center has added an uncommon Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone to parts of southwest Mississippi and Louisiana on this Monday afternoon. The severe weather risk locally across south Alabama and northwest Florida is set to ramp up late this evening into the overnight hours. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail will all be possible in the stronger storms this evening into Tuesday morning. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to receive urgent weather warnings this evening, tonight, and something that will wake you up when you go to sleep tonight. A few midday notes are below.
TORNADO WARNINGS TO THE WEST… There have already been several tornado warnings across northern Louisiana and west Mississippi this morning. We note a new Tornado Watch is now in effect for these areas until 6PM tonight. This new tornado watch is right over the same areas that have the highest tornado risk today near Jackson (MS), Alexandria (LA), Baton Rouge (LA), McComb (MS), and Monroe (LA).
TORNADO WATCH LIKELY LOCALLY LATER… I expect a Tornado Watch to likely be issued for parts of our area later today, probably at some point after 5PM. Remember, a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for the development of tornadoes whereas a WARNING means a tornado has been sighted or confirmed by meteorologists using doppler radar.
WHAT TO EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON… Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across west Alabama over the next several hours. This means that intermittent rain and storms could happen as early as 2PM across parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Mobile, and Baldwin counties. The overall severe weather risk will increase later this evening, however, and I’m not expecting many (if any) warnings locally now through 3PM.
Below is some review information that have been tweaked slightly to reflect the latest updates.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THIS THIS EVENING… While the tornado risk will be highest in the overnight hours as a strong to severe line of thunderstorms moves across our region, I can’t rule out supercell thunderstorms that develop well out ahead of the main line this afternoon. We encourage everyone to be “severe weather ready” over the next few hours *just in case* we have storms firing out ahead of the main line of storms. There certainly is no guarantee that discrete supercells will form in this environment, but we note that some models have alluded to that possibility.
CORE SEVERE WEATHER RISK HAPPENS OVERNIGHT… The greatest risk of severe weather with this event will happen tonight from 9PM to 9AM on Tuesday. There could be somewhat of a “messy storm mode,” in that this could be a squall line of storms, but we very well could have a squall line with more supercell-like structures involved. This could potentially increase the overall tornado risk across the area. We will know more about the storm mode overnight once the actual storms develop later today back to our west across Mississippi and Louisiana.
MAIN HAZARDS TONIGHT: TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS… The tornado risk locally tonight into Tuesday early morning will be highest across parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, and Marengo counties where a “greater combination of atmospheric ingredients” looks to set up. If you’re in these counties, be aware that your tornado potential looks a bit higher. We ALL, however, have at least some risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. There also could be some large hail involved in the stronger storms. Flash flooding could briefly become an issue as the main line of storms passes through our region. ALL modes of severe weather will be possible with this event!
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… 9PM tonight to 9AM Tuesday looks to be the 12 hour window when the main line of storms will move across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Core timeframe looks to be from 11PM tonight to 5AM Tuesday. Rain showers may happen earlier this evening and extend into Tuesday afternoon long after the severe weather risk has come to an end.
LEVEL 4 RISK FOR PARTS OF MS & LA TO OUR WEST… Portions of Mississippi and Louisiana are now involved in an uncommon Level 4 (out of 5) high-end severe weather risk. This is driven by the potential for multiple, significant tornadoes in southwest Mississippi and northeast Louisiana.
LEVEL 3 RISK FOR WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA… The Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone includes areas near Butler, Pennington, Demopolis, Eutaw, Livingston, Reform, Gordo, York, Geiger, Forkland, and surrounding areas in west-central Alabama. Jackson (MS), Baton Rouge, Hattiesburg, Meridian, Alexandria (LA) are also included in this higher Level 3 risk zone. This enhanced risk is used by the Storm Prediction Center to designate where the better combination of “severe weather ingredients” is set to come together.
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL AREA… ALL of our local area in south Alabama is now included in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk for severe storms. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Milton, Pace, Pensacola Beach, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fairhope, Foley, Daphne, Loxley, Silverhill, Bay Minette, Thomasville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Chatom, Leroy, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Evergreen, Castleberry, Lyeffion, Brewton, Atmore, Poarch, Flomaton, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Andalusia, Carolina, River Falls, Molino, Jay, Century, Destin, Crestview, Laurel Hill, Opp, Florala, Navarre, Geneva, Enterprise, Elba, Daleville, Dothan, Fort Rucker, Eglin AFB, and Eufaula. We note much of central and north Alabama is also included in this risk zone. Birmingham, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, Alex City, Selma, Camden, Prattville, Clanton, Hoover, Centreville, Cullman, Jasper, Boaz, Oneonta, Fayette, Russellville, Decatur, Muscle Shoals, Florence, and Hamilton are involved in the Level 2 risk area.
SHARPLY COLDER ON TUESDAY… The cold front partially responsible for all of this severe weather action will move through our region on Tuesday morning behind the main line of storms. Temperatures will turn sharply colder throughout the day on Tuesday. The technical high temperature on Tuesday will happen just after midnight, with temperatures declining all day. We’ll be in the 40s across south Alabama and northwest Florida by Tuesday afternoon, falling into the upper-30s by the late evening hours.
COOL, DRY MIDWEEK; BELOW FREEZING IN EARLY MORNING HOURS… Cold, dry air will have an unfettered path into our region from the northwest after the passage of the cold front this week. We expect multiple nights with below freezing temperatures. See the 7 Day Forecast graphic in the attached video for more info.
MORE RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… Our next chance of rain after Tuesday looks to be Friday into Saturday when we could have a few showers around. We’ll focus on this weather system more in the days ahead.
APP… Many, MANY updates will be posted throughout the day into the night in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts. Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Be sure to check back with me throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest information.
I’ll have many more updates this afternoon and this evening in the RedZone Weather app. Please check with me there for the latest information. I’ll be back on Facebook Live and in our live video stream if/when tornado warnings are required locally. Let me know if you have any questions. Have a good Monday evening and stay safe!