POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL MISCHIEF… There is a low, but increasing, chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm forming late next week in the southeast Gulf of Mexico near southern Florida. Details are scarce at this point since this system is still over one week out, however I want to bring you the latest before we start mentioning this publicly on Wednesday morning in our morning forecast video discussion. Let me heavily stress this is a low confidence situation with many variables at this point. Further forecast refinements will be necessary in the days ahead. There will be another RZW Exec update tomorrow evening about this tropical mischief potential. There is plenty we just don’t know yet, but let’s focus on what we do know…

EURO: TROPICAL STORM… Here’s the main reason of concern at the moment. The European (ECMWF) model is suggesting a moderate (50-60mph) tropical storm being near or just to the south of our local area in the middle part of next week. The view you see above is the raw Euro model output (courtesy tropicaltidbits.com) valid at 12Z (7AM CDT) on Thursday, September 6. Again, this is raw model output over one week out. A lot can and will change, thus why I’m not comfortable mentioning this publicly just yet. The Euro model paints a picture of a northwest-moving tropical storm moving from near South Florida into Mississippi and Louisiana late next week. This would likely mean that local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida would be possible, including a risk of isolated tornadoes.

The American GFS model shows a very different solution, however…

GFS: BARELY ANYTHING… The Global Forecast System (GFS) today has consistently suggested an open trough passing to our south in the Gulf of Mexico. This would mean our seasonal weather pattern would continue with basically NO local impacts. Afternoon storms, yes. Heat and humidity, yes. Tropical storm conditions, NO, if this solution is correct.

The images above are raw model output of wind speeds at approximately 5,000 feet off the ground (the 850 millibar level) and surface-based isobars. (“behind the scenes” view of how the forecast is made everyday!)

SEVERITY & POTENTIAL HAZARDS: It is simply too early to say with confidence just how severe and/or impactful to south Alabama and northwest Florida this potential system will be. There is chance that no formal tropical development occurs and the system remains an open tropical wave that stays to our south. There’s also a chance that the system ramps up to a hurricane and moves northwest toward our local area. The truth of what happens is probably somewhere in the middle of those two extreme solutions. We’ll have much more clarity in the days ahead as more model data pours in.

TIMEFRAME: Impacts, if any occur, would likely happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida between Wednesday, September 5 and Saturday, September 8.

NEXT RZW EXEC UPDATE:  Another RZW Exec notification will be will be sent no later than 8PM on Wednesday, August 29 (tomorrow) concerning this tropical potential.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a good evening!