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Monthly Archives: November 2018

4:48PM November 25, 2018

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COASTAL STORMS MOVING EAST… Showers and thunderstorms continue to move eastward across portions of Baldwin County and northwest Florida. At the moment, the heaviest rain is happening near Gonzalez, Gateswood, and Molino.

We will continue to monitor these thunderstorms happening near the coast as broad rotation has been observed. If tornado warnings are needed, we will go live across our platforms bringing you the very latest.

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4:09PM November 25, 2018

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STRONG STORMS OVER EASTERN SHORE… Heavy rain is happening across the Eastern Shore region of Baldwin County right now. Some lightning has also been observed with this strong storm. So far, there have been no indications of low-level rotation with this storm currently pushing into places like Silverhill, Loxley, Summerdale, and Robertsdale. I’m watching the back flank of this storm, currently situated over Mobile Bay… That is where we have observed some weak rotation. If you’re in Baldwin County south of Interstate 10, be on standby over the next 30-45 minutes as this storm moves by. A tornado is not imminent at this moment, but this is a storm we’ll need to monitor closely.

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3:49PM November 25, 2018

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12:20PM November 25, 2018

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LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS EVENING… The Storm Prediction Center has opted to upgrade part of our local area into their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for later today into tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving into our area from the west. Odds are vast majority of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have no major severe weather issues over the next 24 hours, but an isolated severe storm near the coast cannot be ruled out. The main concern through this evening will be the low-end risk of an isolated tornado or two, damaging straight line winds in the stronger storms, and heavy downpours of rain. We’re also looking ahead to some much cooler air moving into our area tonight, paving the way for a COLD Monday and Tuesday. Let’s talk details…

SEVERE WEATHER RISK NEAR THE COAST… The Level 1, low-end risk is in place for parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties. Communities along and south of Interstate 10 have the highest risk of experiencing a strong to severe storm this evening. This includes (but is not limited to) areas near Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Milton, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Molino, Chumuckla, Warrington, Perdido Key, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Foley, Elberta, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Bayou La Batre, Prichard, Saraland, and Satsuma.

NO ISSUES EXPECTED INLAND… No severe weather issues are expected across inland areas today as the warm front causing this low-end severe weather potential will not reach these areas. Stable air will likely be in place across Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Butler, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), and Covington counties for the duration of this event.

STORM TIMING… The low-end risk of severe weather/isolated tornadoes will happen from 2PM to 9PM CST today (Sunday, November 25, 2018). The risk will progressively shift eastward throughout the evening.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon into the evening hours. A brief, spin-up tornado will be the main concern for coastal areas. A few of the stronger storms may become capable of producing isolated instances of damaging straight line winds. The risk of large hail today is very low. The risk of flash flooding is also low, as this will likely NOT be a long-duration rain event for any given spot.

STORMS TO MOVE OUT TONIGHT… Showers and thunderstorms will kick out of our area to the east later this evening. Cold, dry air will move into south Alabama and northwest Florida behind a cold front that will move by overnight.

COLD MONDAY & TUESDAY… Skies will become clear on Monday, meaning any heat content in the atmosphere will easily escape. Highs on Monday will peak around 55°. The clear skies will allow temperatures to fall to around 30-32° by daybreak on Tuesday morning.

SUNNY THROUGH THURSDAY… Temperatures will slowly rebound throughout the week, peaking around 70° by Friday. Plenty of sunshine is expected Monday P.M. and on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

TROPICS QUIET… We are in the home stretch of hurricane season, which officially ends on Friday! No tropical storms are expected to form in the north Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico.

See all the details in your Sunday #rzw forecast video in the link above… Enjoy the day!

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10:22AM 11/25/2018 – RZW Exec

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LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS EVENING… RZW Exec members, good Sunday morning! I hope each of you had a nice Thanksgiving, Black Friday, & Iron Bowl holiday. The Storm Prediction Center has opted to upgrade part of our local area into their Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for later today into tonight. Odds are vast majority of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have NO severe weather issues over the next 24 hours. The risk will almost certainly set up near the immediate coastline of our local area. One or two brief, isolated tornadoes will be the main concern. An instance of damaging straight line winds will also be possible.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED… The Level 1, low-end risk is in place for parts of Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties. Communities along and south of Interstate 10 have the highest risk of experiencing a strong to severe storm this evening. This includes (but is not limited to) areas near Mobile, Pensacola, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Milton, Navarre, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Molino, Chumuckla, Warrington, Perdido Key, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fort Morgan, Dauphin Island, Foley, Elberta, Robertsdale, Silverhill, Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Bay Minette, Bayou La Batre, Prichard, Saraland, and Satsuma.

NO ISSUES EXPECTED INLAND… No severe weather issues are expected across inland areas today as the warm front causing this low-end severe weather potential will not reach these areas. Stable air will likely be in place across Washington, Clarke, Monroe, Butler, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), and Covington counties for the duration of this event.

STORM TIMING… The low-end risk of severe weather/isolated tornadoes will happen from 2PM to 9PM CST today (Sunday, November 25, 2018). The risk will progressively shift eastward throughout the evening.

ONE MODEL IDEA… Below is an image capture off of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) short-term model, showing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms across our region valid at 6 o’clock this evening. Note that showers and storms won’t happen necessarily at locations depicted. This is simply internal model guidance visualizing this potential.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon into the evening hours. A brief, spin-up tornado will be the main concern for coastal areas. A few of the stronger storms may become capable of producing isolated instances of damaging straight line winds. The risk of large hail today is very low. The risk of flash flooding is also low, as this will likely NOT be a long-duration rain event for any given spot. You can see why flash flooding very likely won’t be an issue in the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) below…

NEXT RZW UPDATE… Since I’m not expecting widespread issues, this will be the one and only RZW Exec update issued for this event. I’ll have plenty of content posted here in the RZWeather app and across our social platforms in the hours ahead. As always, if we have tornado warnings for any part of our primary coverage area, I’ll be providing live streaming coverage here in the app and across our platforms.

Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns. Have a good Sunday!

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