12:43PM 2/19/2019 – RZW Exec

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD… RZW Exec partners, good Monday afternoon! We’ve got an active weather pattern upcoming over the next 7-9 days with multiple rounds of strong storms being possible. There is at least some chance of rain each day in the next 7 days, with Wednesday and Thursday likely being the wettest days. Our friends in north Alabama will be dealing with much more (10+ inches, in some cases) rain than we will in south Alabama and northwest Florida (1-3″ of rain in total locally). Flooding will be possible across the northern half of the state, but I am not expecting significant flooding issues for the southern half of Alabama or northwest Florida. Here is the 7 Day Forecast highlighting our multiple rounds of storms ahead…

LEVEL 1 RISK ZONE FOR WEST ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of Washington and Choctaw counties in west Alabama in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Wednesday. Vast majority of our local area remains in the non-severe, “general thunderstorm zone.” The greatest combination of “atmospheric ingredients” will come together across southeast Mississippi where a line of strong storms will likely form. This linear storm threat will move eastward in the late morning hours of Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern, with the tornado risk being very low, but not entirely zero. If any severe weather happens locally on Wednesday, it will almost certainly occur in Mobile, Choctaw, Washington, Marengo, or Clarke counties. Most of us should have an uneventful rain on Wednesday.

STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND… Beyond Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a (fairly uncommon) Level 2 risk five days out valid on Saturday for parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, and western stretches of Mississippi. SPC notes that tornadoes will be possible on Saturday in those areas. The question mark for our local area is IF that storm system can hold together and move eastward into our area on Sunday. Still plenty of uncertainty in the forecast and it’s simply too early to know whether severe storms could be an issue for our region on Sunday, but that is a possibility. We will have further RZW Exec updates on this as necessary.

CONTINUING COVERAGE… Please continue to monitor our public-facing updates that will continue here in the RedZone Weather app and across social media. If we have a more specific weather threat that materializes, I’ll be sure to bring you an update here in RZW Exec. Please let me know if you have any specific questions. Have a great week!

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6:54AM February 18, 2019

COOLER TODAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPS & STORMS LATER THIS WEEK… The influence of cooler, continental air will keep south Alabama and northwest Florida cooler than previous days on this Monday. High temperatures will top out in the mid-60s under mostly cloudy skies. Any lingering rain showers will clear out over the next 2-3 hours to the southeast. The exiting showers and the cooler temps today are in response to the passage of a cold front that has moved south of our region over the northern Gulf. This front will actually move BACK across our region as a warm front on Tuesday, bringing our region back into the warm sector and setting up a potential of strong storms on Wednesday. Let’s look at details…

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY… Rain will be likely on Tuesday with numerous showers and thunderstorms being possible. Keep the rain gear handy throughout the day. We’ll have numerous radar updates as needed in the RedZone Weather app throughout the day.

LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY… There is a growing chance that we could have a strong to severe line of thunderstorms that approaches our area from the northwest on Wednesday. The main risk with this potential round of strong storms would be damaging straight line winds, but an isolated tornado or two would also be possible. The greater risk of strong storms will likely happen just to our west over southern Mississippi. Storms will likely move by our region during the daytime hours of Wednesday. For now, this remains a low-end, marginal severe weather risk. I’ll be watching the setup closely as we continue to get more model data in over the next 48 hours.

MAJOR RAIN EVENT FOR NORTH ALABAMA… The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast continues to indicate that significant rainfall totals are likely for north Alabama over the next five to seven days. Rain amounts of 5-8” of rain are possible across the far northern part of the state. Flooding will become a real concern, especially across the northern half of Alabama. Flooding impacts will likely be mitigated in our area and for much of the southern half of Alabama and northwest Florida as rain amounts are expected to be far less (in the 0-3” range, depending on the exact location).

MORE RAIN TO END THE WEEK… Rain chances will likely be elevated Thursday, Friday, into Saturday as ample moisture continues streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures will be in the 70s with morning lows in the 50s and 60s.

APP ALERTS… Be sure to download the RedZone Weather app and set up your customized alerts in the Alerts tab (bottom right corner of the app). The app is totally free and a great resource on good weather days and more importantly, on bad weather days.

I’ve got all the graphics and details for you in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video… Enjoy the day!

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