WILDFIRE ALERT & NO BURN NOTICE… The Alabama Forestry Commission has upgraded the Fire Danger Advisory that was in place to a Fire Alert for the entire state of Alabama due to ongoing drought conditions and continued hot weather expected. While under a Fire Alert, permits for outdoor burning will be restricted and issued on an individual basis at the discretion of the State Forester. Anyone who burns a field, grassland, or woodland without a burn permit may be subject to prosecution for committing a Class B misdemeanor.

NO BURN NOTICE… This burning restriction is being issued because of the current drought situation, continued lack of rain, and high probability of fuel ignition. With this extremely dry weather, conditions are such that any fire can quickly spread out of control, not only resulting in damage to our forests but also threatening lives and destroying property. Over the last week, AFC wildland firefighters have responded to 182 wildfires across Alabama, burning approximately 2,608 acres. These numbers include a 470-acre fire in Talladega County, one for 391 acres in DeKalb County, and several which were over 100 acres, but they do not reflect the numerous fires suppressed by volunteer fire departments (VFDs) across the state. The local VFDs are great partners to the AFC in times of high fire occurrence. This Fire Alert will remain in effect until rescinded by the State Forester, at which time conditions will have changed sufficiently to reduce the occurrence and frequency of wildfires. To report a wildfire, call the Alabama Forestry Commission at (800) 392-5679.

TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE, BUT NO ISSUES LOCALLY; HOT TEMPS CONTINUE… Hot temperatures and sunshine will be the lead weather story on this Wednesday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. While there may be one or two showers between 2PM and 7PM, I expect vast majority of us to remain dry and hot today. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s in most spots. We continue to monitor Tropical Storms Jerry, Karen, and Lorenzo and one tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf this morning. Let’s look at details…

HOT, DRY DAYS AHEAD… Temperatures will remain well above our climatological norms for this time of year over the next 5-7 days. I’m not seeing anything in the near-term that would suggest cooler temperatures being on the way. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-90s Friday into the weekend with morning lows around 70°.

TROPICAL STORM KAREN NOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO… Gusty winds and heavy rain affected parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands last night as the core of Tropical Storm Karen moved by. Karen has emerged over the southwestern Atlantic and continues to move northward at 10 miles per hour. Maximum winds are at 45 mph. Karen will likely strengthen somewhat in the days ahead as it moves north and then drastically slows down over the open Atlantic. A southwesterly turn is expected in about 4 days as Karen remains to the south of a big ridge of high pressure. This large area of high pressure will likely move Karen westward toward the Turks & Caicos islands or the southern Bahamas. There is still considerable uncertainty as to what ultimately happens with Karen. Some models show an entry into the southern Gulf while many others show Karen moving north well east of Florida. It is still too soon to rule out U.S. impacts, but the trends have been encouraging in the last 24 hours. We’ll keep watching.

DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center says there is a 10-20% chance of a tropical storm forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico in the area known as the Bay of Campeche. This will be a rainmaker for parts of eastern Mexico. No direct impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida are expected regardless of formal development.

TROPICAL STORM JERRY AFFECTING BERMUDA TODAY… A Tropical Storm Warning continues for Bermuda today as the center of Tropical Storm Jerry is expected to pass near or just to the north of the island. Jerry remains somewhat disorganized, with much of the convection being displaced to the east of the center of circulation. After Jerry passes by Bermuda today, the system will move eastward into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and become post-tropical in about 3-4 days. No direct U.S. impacts are expected because of Jerry.

LORENZO POISED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE… Tropical Storm Lorenzo is located west of the Cabo Verde Islands and well east of the Lesser Antilles in the eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean. The system is expected to become a hurricane today and a major hurricane in about 2-3 days. Lorenzo will likely remain far away from land areas while it is a tropical system. The system will probably recurve into the open waters of the Atlantic before becoming extratropical. No direct U.S. impacts are expected because of Lorenzo.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FORECASTS… Each week, we provide a brief summary of our local college football matchups when the weather isn’t quite active locally. See details below.

ALABAMA VS. OLE MISS… The Alabama Crimson Tide will play the Ole Miss Rebels at 2:30PM CDT on Saturday. The game will be in Tuscaloosa and will be televised on ESPN2. Sunny skies will be in place with HOT temperatures. Game time temperatures start around 95°. Unfortunately, temperatures will probably remain in the 90s for the duration of the game.

AUBURN VS. MISSISSIPPI STATE… Auburn takes on Mississippi State at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn on Saturday. The game will air on ESPN starting at 6PM CDT. There is a tiny (0-10%) chance of rain, but I expect much of the game to be dry and hot. Temperatures start around 90°, falling into the low-80s by the end of the game.

TROY VS. ARKANSAS STATE… Kickoff for the Troy game is slated for 5PM CDT on Saturday as the Trojans do battle with Arkansas State. The game will be streamed online on ESPN+ and aired on the Troy Sports Radio Network. Rain chances remain very low (0-10%) with temperatures expected to be near 90° at the beginning of the game. Temperatures will fall into the upper-70s by the end of the game.

SOUTH ALABAMA AT UL MONROE… The Jaguars of South Alabama will travel to Monroe, Louisiana this weekend to take on the ULM Warhawks. That game is scheduled for a 6PM kickoff on Saturday with a webcast on ESPN+. There is a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours in that part of Louisiana on Saturday. Lightning delays will be possible. Temperatures at kickoff will be near 84° falling into the upper-70s by the end of the game.

APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

See all the graphics and details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!

RECORD HEAT AHEAD TO START OCTOBER… Please don’t shoot the messenger! Unfortunately for the many folks across Alabama and northwest Florida begging for relief from the heat, I do not have good news to report this evening. There is a very high chance (70-80%) that we’ll have temperatures well above average as we go into the last days of September and first week of October. Temperatures are slated to be in the upper-90s for afternoon highs later this week. Other than a small (10-20%) chance of rain on Wednesday, the next 7 days look dry. The one consolation prize is: The same weather feature keeping us hot and dry is keeping all of the tropical mischief away from the Gulf Coast. Let’s look at a few details…

BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING US HOT… A large dome of high pressure continues to park itself over parts of the Carolinas and southern Appalachian Mountains. High pressure often means good, sunny weather, but in this case it also means big time heat. High temperatures this time of year locally should be in the mid- to upper-80s. We’ll be in the mid- to upper-90s over the next several days, however. Overnight lows should be near 60°, but instead will be near 70° in most spots.

TROPICAL STORM KAREN CROSSING INTO ATLANTIC… The broad circulation of Tropical Storm Karen is moving out of the northern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Atlantic Ocean this evening. Tropical storm warnings continue for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Karen is expected to remain a tropical storm as it moves north in the next 3-4 days. As we go into next week, Karen may turn to the west taking aim at the Turks & Caicos islands. The good news for our local area is that the big ridge of high pressure should act as a blocker of sorts to any tropical activity, likely keeping Karen far away from our area.

LOW IN SOUTHERN GULF… There is a 20% chance of tropical storm formation in the Bay of Campeche, aka the southern Gulf of Mexico, over the next few days as an area of low pressure moves westward. This area of low pressure will be a rainmaker for Mexico regardless of formal development. No local issues are expected in Alabama or northwest Florida from this tropical disturbance.

LORENZO & JERRY STAY AWAY… Tropical Storm Jerry will move by Bermuda on Wednesday and out to sea later this week. Tropical Storm Lorenzo is gaining strength in the eastern Atlantic with maximum winds of 65 mph. Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane and probably a major hurricane in about 5 days as it moves northwest. Lorenzo is expected to remain far away from land areas.

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download our free RedZone Weather app. Social networks don’t guarantee that you will see our forecast content or urgent warnings. That is why we have the RZW app available for you. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me. We encourage everyone to turn on “Medium-Level Alerts.” If you like a lot of notifications, turn on Low-Level Alerts too.

I’ll have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday. See you then!

ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS… Just a few, highly isolated, small showers and thunderstorms are happening this evening across south Alabama and northwest Florida. At the moment, we are tracking a few blips on the radar near Vocation, Range, Barnetts Crossroads, Tensaw, and Choctaw Bluff. These showers are drifting southeast. Unfortunately, vast majority of us won’t have any rain today.

Tomorrow (Wednesday) is slated to be just like today with widely scattered, small showers. 10-20% chance of rain on Wednesday.

HOT TUESDAY; FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON; TRACKING WEAK KAREN… The tropical Atlantic continues to be quite active with 3 tropical storms in progress: Jerry, Karen, and Lorenzo. Tropical Storm Karen (or what’s left of it) is the one we need to closely monitor as there is a chance of potential U.S. impacts in 7-8 days. Locally, we’ll have quite a bit of heat and humidity in place today. There is a small chance of a few highly isolated showers and thunderstorms today, although unfortunately I expect most places to remain dry. Record-setting heat will be possible in the next few afternoons, especially on Thursday when some locales may make a run at triple digit heat! Let’s look at details…

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center says that an elongated area of low pressure in the southern Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 3 days as it approaches the northeast coast of Mexico. Regardless of formal development, direct local impacts from this system in Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected.

TROPICAL STORM KAREN IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN… Tropical Storm Karen remains disorganized on this Tuesday. The system is very near Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands producing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Karen will continue to move north today and cross into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by tonight. There is a chance Karen may dissipate briefly before redeveloping north of Puerto Rico.

KAREN COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT U.S. IN ABOUT A WEEK… Let me be clear that there is very low confidence in the projected path of Tropical Storm Karen beyond 5 days out. We note that there is an increasingly consistent trend in the global model guidance that Karen will likely make a sharp, left, westerly turn this weekend. That means that the system may take aim at the Florida Peninsula next week. This is one idea on the table that is HIGHLY subject to change. Some models show a right turn out to sea this weekend. The reason why we have this uncertainty is we don’t know exactly how strong a large ridge of high pressure will be that will be situated to the northwest of Karen across the southeastern U.S. That same ridge of high pressure is why our area will have so much heat and potentially record high temperatures as we go into the weekend. The big takeaway remains that we need to keep a close eye on Tropical Storm Karen, as there are some scenarios that suggest a track into the Gulf of Mexico in about a week. Part of the problem in forecasting in the long range is Karen may ultimately dissipate into a remnant low.

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO GAINING STRENGTH… Tropical Storm Lorenzo is located in the eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Lorenzo will probably become a hurricane in the next day or two as it moves northwest. All of the model guidance is currently suggesting Lorenzo will recurve to the north into the open waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean. This would mean that NO land impacts happen because of Lorenzo if this forecast verifies. We’ll keep watching, but the trends are certainly good.

TROPICAL STORM JERRY TO IMPACT BERMUDA TODAY & TOMORROW… Bermuda is preparing for yet another brush with a tropical storm as Tropical Storm Jerry approaches from their southwest. Last week it was Hurricane Humberto keeping Bermuda on edge. This week, a slightly weaker Tropical Storm Jerry has maximum winds of 65 mph that is approaching the island commonwealth. The center of Jerry will pass very near Bermuda probably early Wednesday morning. After the tropical storm moves by Bermuda, it will likely keep moving northeast and out to sea before becoming extratropical. No U.S. impacts are expected due to Tropical Storm Jerry.

ISOLATED SHOWERS LOCALLY THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING… Unfortunately, most of us won’t have the luxury of seeing rain today. There could, however, be a few showers and storms that pop up in the heat of the day this afternoon. Most of the showers and storms will happen between 1PM and 7PM in the core heating hours. This pattern is reminiscent of the classic summer pattern when we have numerous pop-up storms each day in the afternoon/evening. While I’m not expecting widespread storms today like we see on the hot, summer days, there may be a few storms that pop up across inland areas. High temperatures peak around 95° this afternoon. HOT!

LOW RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY… Just like today, we’ll call it a 20% chance of showers and storms for Wednesday. No severe weather is expected but some of the rogue storms may produce quite a bit of lightning and heavy rain.

FIRST LOOK: HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… Temperatures will almost certainly be warmer this week compared to last week for high school football. Kickoff temperatures will be in the mid-80s, falling to near 80° by the end of each game. Mostly clear skies are expected with very little to no chance of rain across south Alabama and northwest Florida.

APP… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download our free RedZone Weather app. Social networks don’t guarantee that you will see our forecast content or urgent warnings. That is why we have the RZW app available for you. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you want to receive straight from me. We encourage everyone to turn on “Medium-Level Alerts.” If you like a lot of notifications, turn on Low-Level Alerts too.

See all the graphics and details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!