HOT TUESDAY; FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON; TRACKING WEAK KAREN… The tropical Atlantic continues to be quite active with 3 tropical storms in progress: Jerry, Karen, and Lorenzo. Tropical Storm Karen (or what’s left of it) is the one we need to closely monitor as there is a chance of potential U.S. impacts in 7-8 days. Locally, we’ll have quite a bit of heat and humidity in place today. There is a small chance of a few highly isolated showers and thunderstorms today, although unfortunately I expect most places to remain dry. Record-setting heat will be possible in the next few afternoons, especially on Thursday when some locales may make a run at triple digit heat! Let’s look at details…
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center says that an elongated area of low pressure in the southern Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 3 days as it approaches the northeast coast of Mexico. Regardless of formal development, direct local impacts from this system in Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected.
TROPICAL STORM KAREN IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN… Tropical Storm Karen remains disorganized on this Tuesday. The system is very near Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands producing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Karen will continue to move north today and cross into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by tonight. There is a chance Karen may dissipate briefly before redeveloping north of Puerto Rico.
KAREN COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT U.S. IN ABOUT A WEEK… Let me be clear that there is very low confidence in the projected path of Tropical Storm Karen beyond 5 days out. We note that there is an increasingly consistent trend in the global model guidance that Karen will likely make a sharp, left, westerly turn this weekend. That means that the system may take aim at the Florida Peninsula next week. This is one idea on the table that is HIGHLY subject to change. Some models show a right turn out to sea this weekend. The reason why we have this uncertainty is we don’t know exactly how strong a large ridge of high pressure will be that will be situated to the northwest of Karen across the southeastern U.S. That same ridge of high pressure is why our area will have so much heat and potentially record high temperatures as we go into the weekend. The big takeaway remains that we need to keep a close eye on Tropical Storm Karen, as there are some scenarios that suggest a track into the Gulf of Mexico in about a week. Part of the problem in forecasting in the long range is Karen may ultimately dissipate into a remnant low.
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO GAINING STRENGTH… Tropical Storm Lorenzo is located in the eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Lorenzo will probably become a hurricane in the next day or two as it moves northwest. All of the model guidance is currently suggesting Lorenzo will recurve to the north into the open waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean. This would mean that NO land impacts happen because of Lorenzo if this forecast verifies. We’ll keep watching, but the trends are certainly good.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY TO IMPACT BERMUDA TODAY & TOMORROW… Bermuda is preparing for yet another brush with a tropical storm as Tropical Storm Jerry approaches from their southwest. Last week it was Hurricane Humberto keeping Bermuda on edge. This week, a slightly weaker Tropical Storm Jerry has maximum winds of 65 mph that is approaching the island commonwealth. The center of Jerry will pass very near Bermuda probably early Wednesday morning. After the tropical storm moves by Bermuda, it will likely keep moving northeast and out to sea before becoming extratropical. No U.S. impacts are expected due to Tropical Storm Jerry.
ISOLATED SHOWERS LOCALLY THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING… Unfortunately, most of us won’t have the luxury of seeing rain today. There could, however, be a few showers and storms that pop up in the heat of the day this afternoon. Most of the showers and storms will happen between 1PM and 7PM in the core heating hours. This pattern is reminiscent of the classic summer pattern when we have numerous pop-up storms each day in the afternoon/evening. While I’m not expecting widespread storms today like we see on the hot, summer days, there may be a few storms that pop up across inland areas. High temperatures peak around 95° this afternoon. HOT!
LOW RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY… Just like today, we’ll call it a 20% chance of showers and storms for Wednesday. No severe weather is expected but some of the rogue storms may produce quite a bit of lightning and heavy rain.
FIRST LOOK: HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL FORECAST… Temperatures will almost certainly be warmer this week compared to last week for high school football. Kickoff temperatures will be in the mid-80s, falling to near 80° by the end of each game. Mostly clear skies are expected with very little to no chance of rain across south Alabama and northwest Florida.
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See all the graphics and details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!