ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday, starting in the morning hours and extending through the afternoon and evening and perhaps extending into the late evening hours. This will likely be a prolonged, simmering, low-end risk that lasts well into the evening hours. One round of storms will be a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that moves in from the west on Sunday morning. This first round of storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Depending on how strong the first round of storms actually is, we may have a second, prolonged round of scattered storms in the evening hours on Sunday that could be supportive of gusty winds, large hail, perhaps with a lower tornado risk. The bottom line is everyone should have a way to hear urgent weather warnings on Sunday.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SUNDAY… Round 1 (of 2) of the thunderstorms will probably happen between 9AM and 2PM on Sunday. This round of storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. The overall tornado risk will be a bit greater closer to the coast. We probably will get a lull in activity ahead of Round 2 (of 2) of the thunderstorms in the evening hours. Uncertainty is a bit higher with the second round (as Round 1 will ultimately determine if Round 2 actually materializes). For now, 2PM to 11PM is the thinking for the second round of storms across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The risk of tornadoes may end up being a bit lower with the second round of storms with large hail (up to golfball size, potentially) and gusty winds being the main concern in the second round. The overarching headline in terms of timing is this may be a prolonged, low-end, simmering risk as opposed to an explosive, condensed tornado risk.
LOW-END, LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE… Nearly all of us across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida are now involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone valid for Sunday. This means that MOST communities will simply have rain and thunder at times. A few, highly isolated tornadoes and areas of wind damage may be possible. Whether we see an outlook upgrade or not really does not matter as the key messages remain the same: Rain, thunder, and perhaps a few severe storms are on the way for Sunday. Please have a way to hear warnings.
FLASH FLOOD RISK MAY SET UP NEAR THE COAST… Rain amounts will vary quite a bit across the region, but the general consensus is that 1 to 5 inches of total rainfall will be the norm. You read that correctly – isolated areas near the coast may have upwards of 5 inches of total rainfall. There may even be a few spots with higher rain amounts. If storms train over the same areas, flash flooding will be a concern. This is most likely to happen closer to the coast.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and YouTube Live. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates posted throughout the day on Sunday in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a great Saturday night!
