ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING; HIGH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY… Scattered thunderstorms will develop across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Tuesday, mostly in the afternoon and evening hours. Storms will be scattered in nature, meaning it won’t rain all day, and not every community will have rain before the end of the day. A few of the storms may become strong or marginally severe, with damaging wind gusts being the main concern. The tornado risk remains near zero today. All storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, loud thunder, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. All local counties are involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for today as defined by the Storm Prediction Center. High temperatures will be in the 91-96° range today. The chances of strong storms will decrease in the days ahead but the actual rain chance will increase, particularly on Thursday.
STORM TIMING – TODAY… Storms will become more numerous during the afternoon and evening hours as daytime heating and the seabreeze interact with weak disturbances moving across the region. We are expecting storms to be most numerous today from 2PM to 9PM. It is incredibly difficult to pinpoint what communities will have storms at a specific time, but we know storms will be popping up this evening. Storm coverage will gradually decrease after 9PM.
SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY… Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is likely tomorrow, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms may produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning, although there is no formal severe weather risk in place locally for Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the 91-96° range.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY… Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday as an upper-level trough digs southward and provides greater support for storm development. Rain chances will be in the 70-80% range across much of the region, with the highest coverage of rain and storms likely during the afternoon. Gusty winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning will be possible in the stronger storms. Greater cloud and rain coverage will help keep highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s.
SPOTTY STORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY & SUNDAY… Friday will remain fairly active, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible. Rain chances are expected to decrease considerably by Saturday and Sunday, although spotty, mainly P.M. showers and thunderstorms will remain possible. This does not mean the weekend will be completely dry, but storm coverage should be lower compared to what happens on Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will generally be in the 90s later this week and into the weekend.
TROPICS: TROPICAL WAVE IN EASTERN ATLANTIC… A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure are located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized, but environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development. A tropical depression could form during the middle or latter part of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center maintains a 60% chance of tropical storm formation over the next 7 days.
TROPICS: DISTURBANCE EAST OF BERMUDA… INVEST 95L is a broad area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, but the system could briefly become a tropical depression or tropical storm today while moving northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. NHC indicates a 50% chance of development. The system is expected to move over colder water Wednesday, ending its opportunity for development.
TROPICS: GULF & CARIBBEAN QUIET, FOR NOW… The Gulf and the Caribbean Sea are not expected to support tropical storm development over the next 5-7 days.
APP ALERTS… The RedZone Weather app is the best place to keep up with my latest updates even when I am not posting videos or live updates across our platforms. Download the free app at redzoneweather.com/app. Once you have it installed, visit the Alerts tab to select the notifications you’d like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Tuesday RedZone Weather forecast video. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. I will have updates posted throughout the day, as needed, in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a nice Tuesday!
