RAIN & STORMS AT TIMES TODAY; PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND… Heavy rain will be possible *at times* across south Alabama and northwest Florida today and through the weekend. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through Sunday evening. Thankfully, widespread, significant severe weather remains unlikely. Heavy rain will be the main concern, with localized flash flooding possible as we move through the weekend. Rain coverage will be widespread at times, but that does not mean uninterrupted rain in every community. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s today with low to mid 80s tomorrow for highs due to all of the clouds and rain around.
WHAT TO EXPECT – TODAY INTO TONIGHT… Keep the umbrella handy today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours of rain and cloud-to-ground lightning, although breaks between rounds of rain and storms will be possible. Rain chances today are somewhat lower farther inland near Greenville, Monroeville, and Thomasville compared to places further south near the coast. Showers and storms remain possible tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s inland to the upper 70s near the coast.
SATURDAY TO BE WET WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN POSSIBLE… Rain becomes even more likely tomorrow, with rain chances around 80-90% across the region. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms may interrupt outdoor plans, so having an indoor alternative will be helpful. A weakening ridge of high pressure will allow a frontal boundary to approach, while very tropical, moist air continues to move into our region. That combination will support numerous to widespread showers and storms, including periods of heavy rain. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s tomorrow.
SUNDAY MAY BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS… Sunday has the highest rain chance of any day in the next 7 days, with showers and thunderstorms likely across the region. Deep moisture will remain in place as the frontal boundary moves across our area, supporting additional rounds of heavy rain. The exact locations and timing of the heaviest downpours remain uncertain. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Rain remains possible Sunday night as well.
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY… Localized flash flooding could develop as early as today, but the greater concern is this weekend as heavy rain continues. By Sunday, some communities may have already received several rounds of rain before additional downpours arrive. Where storms repeatedly affect the same locations, water could rise quickly. The placement of those repeated rounds will determine which communities have the greatest flooding problems, and that cannot be pinpointed just yet. We lose far too many people across America each year due to folks attempting to drive through water-covered roadways. The phrase is, “Turn around, don’t drown.”
SEVERE WEATHER RISK (TORNADO & DAMAGING WIND RISK) REMAINS LOW… The primary concerns today and in the days ahead are heavy rain, localized flooding, and lightning rather than tornadoes or damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has not included any of our local counties in a formal severe weather risk for today or Saturday. That does not make thunderstorms harmless, but it does help distinguish this heavy-rain setup from a more organized severe weather event. I will be posting radar updates as needed in the RedZone Weather app.
SCATTERED P.M. STORMS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK… Showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible Monday and Tuesday, but rain coverage will decrease a bit. The front is expected to gradually move into the Gulf, allowing rain chances to ease further through Thursday of next week. This will be a gradual improvement rather than an immediate switch to completely dry weather. High temperatures will generally be in the low 80s Monday through Wednesday of the upcoming week.
RIP CURRENT ALERT… If you are headed to the beaches, a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents is in place at Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Sunday. Red flags will be flying at most (if not all) of the local beaches. Please stay out of the Gulf while these dangerous conditions continue.
TROPICS: GULF & CARIBBEAN, ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN QUIET, FOR NOW… The National Hurricane Center is not highlighting any tropical disturbances in the Gulf or Caribbean Sea. Tropical development is not expected in either area over the next 5-7 days. We note that some of the extended guidance (7-10 day range) continues to highlight an area that could become a concern in the Bay of Campeche region of the southern Gulf. For now, it’s really nothing to be concerned about as model guidance is still “all over the board.” I will be closely monitoring trends over the weekend. I will bring you the latest info in the RedZone Weather app.
APP… The free RedZone Weather app is the best way to keep up with my latest weather updates throughout the day. Visit redzoneweather.com/app to download the app for iOS or Android. Once installed, open the Alerts tab and customize the notifications you’d like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Friday RedZone Weather forecast video. My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM Monday morning. If, by chance, a tornado warning happens today or over the weekend, we will “go live” on our live platforms and bring you the latest info. The odds of any tornado issues locally this weekend continue to seem very, very low, however. I will have updates posted throughout the weekend, as needed, in the RedZone Weather app.
Have a great weekend!
